Suchergebnisse

Abstract. The logit method for ecological inference, presented by Thomsen in 1987, estimates individual level voting behaviour from aggregate election results. Making comparisons with survey results, this article tests the validity of ecological estimates of voter mobility between parties at three Danish, five Swedish and three Finnish election periods. For all three countries, the ecological estimates are rather close to survey results, but in the cases of Denmark and Sweden the validity of the ecological estimates seems lower than the validity of the survey results. However, for both countries, the differences between the ecological estimates and the survey results show a stable pattern which can be interpreted within the framework of a general logit theory.

The floating vote & the floating voter at three critical junctures in modern Swedish political history are examined using S. R. Thomsen's method of ecological inference (Danish Elections 1920-1979: A Logit Approach to Ecological Analysis and Inference, Aarhus: Politica, 1987). Ecological estimates drawn from Thomsen's approach support the notion that the Swedish elections of 1928, 1948, & 1968 were mobilizing elections, enticing significant numbers of new voters to the polls & generating considerable mobility between parties. The three elections could also be considered realigning, given their potential to establish a new status quo. It is suggested that right-wing parties were on the offensive in 1928 & 1948, while the Social Democrats held the initiative in 1968. However, because the new coalitions reflected instability, the floating voters were responsible for the difference between defeat & victory, particularly voters with a nonvoting history. It is argued that Thomsen's method for ecological inference is more effective than alternative regression methods. 8 Tables, 1 Figure, 14 References. S. Millett

The logit method for ecological inference (Thomsen, S. R., Danish Elections 1920-1979: A Logit Approach to Ecological Analysis and Inference, Aarhus: Politica, 1987) is assessed, testing the validity of ecological estimates of voter mobility between parties during 3 Danish, 5 Swedish, & 3 Finnish election periods. For both the Danish & Swedish elections, although the ecological estimates produced by the simple logit method are close to survey results, the latter are probably more valid; eg, the similarity between ecological estimates & adjusted survey results for Denmark is less than the similarity between two adjusted surveys. However, deviations between ecological estimates & survey results for each country demonstrate a stable pattern that can be interpreted within the framework of general logit theory, even though the ecological estimates by the simple model probably are not as valid. It is suggested that a more general logit method tailored to the conditions of each country can yield more valid ecological estimates. 13 Tables, 1 Figure, 25 References. S. Millett