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THIS PAPER INTRODUCES SIX VARIABLES TO CAPTURE DIFFERENCES IN SOCIO-POLITICAL FORECASTING SYSTEMS, AND OFFERS A CATEGORIZATION OF FORECASTING APPROACHES. THESE ARE CROSS REFERENCED WITH THE FORECASTING CIRCUMSTANCES TO PRODUCE RECOMMENDATIONS FOR AN APPROPRIATE TECHNIQUE. MOST OF THE EXAMPLES ARE FROM FOREIGN POLICY AND INTERNATIONAL POLITICS, AND CONCENTRATE ON FOREIGN ENERGY POLICY.

"Problem representation" and "ontology" are introduced as concepts critical to understanding foreign policy decision making. The article explicates these concepts and their relationship and focuses on such issues of representation rather than veridical descriptions of reality, thereby shifting attention away from concern with misperception and toward attempting to understand how these representations are socially constructed and modified. It is argued that the conflict resolution process can be enhanced by inclusion of concerns with "problem representation" and "ontology" along with traditional interest in "option selection." These concepts are then related to decision making in the cuban missile crisis. Two different ways of using new information on the crisis — and more generally understanding foreign policy decision making — are presented. The first is deemed an "option selection" perspective. A second approach expresses a theory of foreign policy decision making in a model of one important aspect of the Cuban missile crisis — the debate over whether Soviet missiles in Cuba were offensive. That model illustrates why focusing primarily on options or alternatives may obscure the most critical determinants of decision making. By focusing on ontologies and problem representations, the new model illustrates an approach to understanding and representing why some decision makers are predisposed to particular options over others.

Much has been written about the "new technology" of U.S. elections: computerized letters, data banks of potential contributors, advanced video advertising techniques, speedy transportation and communication, and instant analysis of polling data. If one examines these discussions for a sense of how the growing use of these new technologies has changed the politics of elections, one finds several themes. Many scholars and journalists have described, for example, the high dollar costs of technology-dependent campaigns, the consequent influence of political action committees, how presidential candidates in particular are "marketed," via the media, like toothpaste or breakfast cereal, and the prevalence in campaigns of superficial image rather than issues. We argue here that these changes in the way elections are conducted are associated with a deeper change in the conception of elections. The core of this argument is that changes in election technology have made possible the conduct of campaigns in which "strategy" has taken on a new meaning, and that leaders and the public share a view of elections that has progressively less to do with education, public discourse, or participation.

Vorstellung einer Computer-Analyse der Entscheidungsbildung von John F. Kennedy in der Kuba-Krise 1962 zur Überprüfung der Angemessenheit der getroffenen Beschlüsse. Diskussion der Aussagefähigkeit des Untersuchungsmodells für die Beurteilung politischer Handlungsalternativen und Ableitung von Folgerungen insbesondere im Hinblick auf den hohen Wahrscheinlichkeitsgrad schärferer militärischer Gegenmaßnahmen bei verkürzter Bedenkzeit

After a definition of scientific forecasting, the crucial role of assumptions in such forecasts is explicated, & the representations on which forecasting systems are based are discussed. Six variables are introduced to capture differences in sociopolitical forecasting circumstances: level of detail, accuracy, agreement on problem representation, robustness-brittleness, number of variables & interdependencies, & disturbance. A categorization of forecasting approaches -- expert-based, Bayesian, extremal statistical, & rule-based -- is offered. These forecasting approaches are then cross-referenced with forecasting circumstances to produce recommendations for choosing an appropriate forecasting technique in a given policy circumstance. Examples are drawn from the realm of foreign policy & international politics; the cross-referencing section concentrates on foreign energy policy examples. 1 Figure, 21 References. HA.