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The article analyses the real wages of employees of budgetary sphere in 2010. A monthly income and growth components dynamics (nominal incomes and prices) were tested by rg ? the unweighted geometric mean method as well as by r – method taking into account the sum of the terms of a time series. (original abstract)

The author analyses a real income of enterprise employees and pensioners of the nonagricultural social security system as well as individual farmers. The monthly income dynamic as well as components (nominal income and prices) were studied by the rg method (simple geometric mean) as well as the r method (taking into account a sum of time series terms).

Real incomes of enterprise employees, pensioners from the non-agriculture insurance system, individual farmers as well as public administration and national defence, education, health care and social welfare are analysed in the article. Month income dynamics as well as their components (minimum incomes and prices) were tested by rg – unweighted geometric average method as well as r – method taking into account the number of items of time series.

The forecast method created for a long-term forecasting annual variables on the basis of short-term series was presented in the article. The method connects the weighted average and linear trend. In the empirical part, the forecast of employment rates as well as the comparison of their forecast characteristics with the ARIMA model by the Diebold-Mariano test were presented. The long-term prediction significantly exceeding the length of the time series (being the base of parameter estimations) allowed to assess the efficiency of the created tool. The method allows to forecast future values relatively successfully.