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Statistical models are often extended to explore the aggregate impact of policy reforms. After discussing these techniques and the incorporation of prediction uncertainty, this article examines the effects of registration reform in an analytic framework that explicitly considers the two stages that defined electoral participation throughout the 20th century in the United States—registration and then voting. Using selection bias techniques, the effects of counterfactual registration reform conditions are explored on the aggregate level of participation and the nature of representation in the electoral process. These offer a richer baseline of the impact of policy changes than previous work by directly exploring the expected level of dropoff in going to the polls by new registrants. Results indicate that the dropoff between registration and voting would be expected to increase as more individuals become registered. In addition, while turnout due to reforms among projected "new registrants" shows potentially larger biases than those among existing registrants, because of the different bases of registration the changes would still lead to a modest reduction in the disparity between actual group sizes and their role in elections.

Electoral participation in the United States is examined to provide a clearer account of the effect of the registration requirement on individual voting behavior. Pooling NES data from 1980, 1984, and 1988, I first model, with traditional and selection bias techniques, the full electorate to distinguish among three groups: nonregistrants, registered nonvoters, and voters. Analyses limited to recent movers then reported to understand more fully the forces associated with the actual decision calculi of registering and voting. The influences of many factors commonly accepted as important determinants of voting are disentangled, and their effect at each stage is ascertained. Factors yielding inconsistent effects in previ research or believed to be unimportant—such as race, gender, attitudes toward the candidates, and trust government—are shown to deserve closer scrutiny by electoral scholars.

Electoral participation in the United States is examined to provide a clearer account of the effect of the registration requirement on individual voting behavior. Pooling NES data from 1980, 1984, and 1988, I first model, with traditional and selection bias techniques, the full electorate to distinguish among three groups: nonregistrants, registered nonvoters, and voters. Analyses limited to recent movers are then reported to understand more fully the forces associated with the actual decision calculi of registering and voting. The influences of many factors commonly accepted as important determinants of voting are disentangled, and their effect at each stage is ascertained. Factors yielding inconsistent effects in previous research or believed to be unimportant - such as race, gender, attitudes toward the candidates, and trust in government - are shown to deserve closer scrutiny by electoral scholars. (American Political Science Review / FUB)

Examines nonregistrant, registered nonvoter, and voter behavior, and determiners of voting, to account for electoral participation, and the effect of the registration requirement on individual voting behavior; based on registration and turnout measures from the 1980, 1984, and 1988 National Election Study.

Examines the relationship between the 1965 passage of the Voting Rights Act & the increase in the number of black elected officials in MS via time-series analysis of census & other secondary data. It is found that the act directly & immediately contributed to a sharp increase in the number of registered black voters, but not black officeholders. Contributing to the eventual election of more black officials were several events that occurred 1969/70, eg, the reorganization of the Dept of Justice's Civil Rights Division, legislative amendments to the Voting Rights Act, &, most significantly, the US Supreme Court decision in Allen v. State Board of Elections, which substantially prevented the dilution of black votes. 1 Table, 2 Figures, 24 References. E. Blackwell

Across Western democracies, individuals frequently vote for different parties in different elections. A variety of explanations have been proposed for this behavior. In the European context, scholars have focused on the idea that individuals may vote for different parties because some elections are less important than others (i.e., are "second-order" elections). In the U.S. context, scholars have focused on the possibility that individuals might vote for different parties because they care about how the two chambers will affect policy outcomes. In this article, the authors test among four alternative motivations for vote switching, two predicated on the notion that individuals treat one of the elections as second-order and two predicated on the notion that individuals care about policy outcomes from both chambers. The tests are performed by analyzing Euro-barometer survey data on individual voting behavior in European national and European Parliament elections. The authors find support for all four motivations.