Suchergebnisse

Jan Tinbergen, galardonado con el primer Premio Nobel de Economía en 1969, participó a finales de ese mismo año en una reunión de economistas que la OIT había convocado con el fin de fijar las prioridades en materia de investigación del recién creado Programa Mundial del Empleo. En su ponencia Tinbergen examinó la influencia de la política comercial internacional en la capacidad de creación de empleo. En su opinión, […] Seguir leyendo

In his polemic reply Tinbergen defends the econometric method he applied. He reproaches Keynes for the inaccuracy of his argument and justifies the applicability of linear relationships in economic analysis and their existence in economic interactions. Tinbergen also provides a detailed account of some methodological (primarily addressing the problem of causality) and economic issues of his analysis. In a comment to the Tinbergen's paper Keynes clarifies his point of view on some particular points as well as on econometrics as a whole.

Discusses the process of the design of economic policy; from the scientists' point of view as to what the process might be ideally and what are some of the most important open questions. Also discusses the similarities and differences between methods of design in countries with different social systems. (Quotes from original text)

THIS ARTICLE ARGUES THAT THERE ARE A NUMBER OF VIABLE SOLUTIONS TO MANY OF THE WORLD'S MOST PRESSING PROBLEMS. WHAT IS LACKING IS THE POLITICAL WILL TO IMPLEMENT THESE SOLUTIONS. THE AUTHOR ARGUES THAT SUFFICIENT POLITICAL WILL WOULD ENABLE HUMANITY TO FACE AND SOLVE THE PROBLEMS OF SECURITY, ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION, DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY. TWO EXAMPLES OF VIABLE SOLUTIONS TO MANY OF THESE PROBLEMS ARE THE EXPANSION OF THE UNITED NATIONS' POWER TO INCLUDE A WORLD TREASURY AND A WORLD POLICE FORCE, AND A MASSIVE INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF FOREIGN AID RENDERED TO DEBT-RIDDEN UNDERDEVELOPED NATIONS. SUCH POLICIES ARE IN THE LONG-TERM INTEREST OF ALL THE NATIONS OF THE WORLD AND REQUIRE ONLY POLITICAL WILL TO IMPLEMENT.

SummaryThis lecture deals with a general view on forecasting and planning with special emphasis on the application in less developed countries.After some introductory remarks attention is paid to the evaluation of the results of forecasting by means of statistical methods in comparing forecasts and realization.The paper gives some outlook on the general features of planning in the less developed countries. Special attention is drawn to a rather new aspect of the matter: the importance of non‐economic factors which may have great influence on the process of development. Thorough investigation in this field seems necessary as it may contribute to a better planning and to more efficient activities in these countries.

The semi-input-output method has been proposed by the author
as a substi¬tute for what was formerly called the estimation of the
indirect effects of invest¬ment projects. Essentially it rests on
assumption I that a country must aim at an "ideal development process",
meaning a growth process which at no time shows unutilized production
capacity. Furthermore, the method rests on assumption II that a
distinction can be made between national or domestic activities
(industries in the widest sense or sectors) on the one hand and
international activities on the other hand. By definition the products
of the former cannot, for technological or cultural reasons, be imported
or exported. Examples have been given elsewhere [1]. Together with
assumption I it follows from II that the productive capacity in the
national sectors equals the demand for their products. With a given
develop¬ment of national income the growth of the national sectors is
practically deter¬mined. The choice of new sectors to be developed must
mainly be made among the international sectors, where those showing the
highest comparative advantages must be chosen, if with given sacrifices
of scarce factors a maximum of result is wanted. The criterion for
selection of sectors will depend on the aims of policy as well as on the
relative scarcity of factors. Its precise content is independent of the
subject to be discussed here. For simplicity's sake we will assume that
the criterion is to prefer sectors with the lowest capital-output ratio.
This choice only effects the later portions of this article. The
emphasis here is on something else, namely that it is not possible, if
we accept assumption I, to add to the equip¬ment of the nation a factory
or set of factories in one international sector only, but that
simultaneously with such an "international" investment a number of
complementary investments in domestic sectors are necessary, in order to
keep all capacities fully utilized. We will call the necessary
combination of investments a bunch; it always consists of an investment
in one international sector combined with a number of investments in all
national sectors.