Suchergebnisse

This paper examines the effects of employment protection legislation (EPL) reforms on employment outcomes in Croatia, testing the available theoretical predictions of partial labour market reforms from the literature. Using Labour Force Survey (LFS) data in the period 2007-2017 and applying the event study method in combination with probit regressions, the main results suggest that EPL reforms from 2013 and 2014 induced a rise in temporary employment, while the effects on overall employment are clearly visible only in the case of the second reform. Moreover, probit regression estimations show that specific groups of the population – females, youths, foreigners, the low-skilled and singles from rural areas – have a higher probability of ending up with temporary contracts, suggesting there is a segmentation on the Croatian labour market.

AbstractThis article explores the main determinants of youth unemployment in Europe in the period 2002 to 2014 by estimating panel data models for the 28 Member States of the European Union (EU). Heterogeneity is acknowledged by estimating models for subsamples of countries with "high" and "low" youth unemployment rates. The main results suggest that youth unemployment is more pronounced in countries with poor GDP growth, a low share of construction activity and high public debt. Reduced mobility (owing to homeownership), corruption, reception of a high level of remittances and a lack of possibilities for young people to live outside parental homes are also important factors.

RésuméL'auteure recherche les déterminants du chômage des jeunes en Europe entre 2002 et 2014 en estimant des modèles sur données de panel pour les 28 États membres de l'UE. Face à l'hétérogénéité entre les pays, elle constitue deux souséchantillons (groupes «taux élevé» et «taux faible»), selon le niveau de chômage. L'analyse permet d'associer le chômage des jeunes à une faible croissance du PIB, un faible poids du secteur de la construction et une dette publique élevée. Parmi les autres déterminants importants figurent la faible mobilité résidentielle (pour cause de propriété du logement), la corruption, les transferts de fonds et la résidence au domicile parental.

ResumenEn este artículo se investigan los principales determinantes del desempleo juvenil en la Unión Europea de 2002 a 2014 mediante la estimación de modelos con datos de panel sobre los 28 Estados miembros. Se reconoce la heterogeneidad interna de la UE estimando los modelos para submuestras de países con tasas «altas» y «bajas» de desempleo juvenil. Se concluye que el desempleo juvenil es más grave en los países con escaso crecimiento del PIB, con poca actividad de construcción y con una elevada deuda pública. Otros factores importantes son la escasa movilidad resultante de la vivienda en propiedad, la corrupción, las remesas y las dificultades de los jóvenes para independizarse del hogar parental.

In this paper we evaluate the effects of active labor market policy (ALMP) reform, the so-called SOR measure (vocational training for work without commencing employment), on labor market outcomes in Croatia. In 2012 SOR was redesigned to ease the first labor market entry and promote on-the-job training, enabling a young person without relevant work experience to get a one-year contract and a net monthly remuneration of 210 euro. The measure soon became popular, especially among university graduates, accounting for around third of their unemployment exits, and absorbing two thirds of funds allocated to ALMPs. Pooling Croatian Labor Force Surveys from 2007–2016 and using difference-in-difference strategy, we estimate the causal intent-to-treat effect of the reform on labor market outcomes of the potentially eligible group: 18–29-year-olds. Results indicate that the reform has had, at best, neutral effects on employment and unemployment; moreover, we find some evidence that a portion of young individuals were propelled into inactivity. However, we do find an adverse effect on wages—driven mostly by wages received by females and university graduates—both at the mean and higher percentiles of the wage distribution. This research provides insights on effectiveness of ALMPs in ameliorating youth unemployment in Europe, and opens questions on the appropriateness of the use of European Union funds in new EU member states. ; U radu ocjenjujemo učinke reforme aktivne mjere zapošljavanja, takozvane SOR mjere (stručno osposobljavanje za rad bez zasnivanja radnog odnosa), na ishode tržišta rada u Hrvatskoj. SOR je 2012. godine redizajniran kako bi olakšao prvi ulazak na tržište rada i promovirao osposobljavanje na radnom mjestu, omogućujući mladoj osobi bez relevantnog radnog iskustva jednogodišnji ugovor i mjesečnu naknadu od 210 eura. Mjera je ubrzo postala popularna, osobito među visokoobrazovanima, čineći oko trećinu njihovih izlazaka iz nezaposlenosti i apsorbirajući oko dvije trećine sredstava utrošenih na aktivne mjere zapošljavanja. Koristeći Anketu o radnoj snazi za razdoblje 2007.–2016. i identifikacijsku strategiju razlike u razlikama procjenjujemo uzročni učinak reforme na ishode tržišta rada potencijalno obuhvaćene skupine. Rezultati pokazuju da je reforma u najboljem slučaju imala neutralan učinak na zapošljavanje i nezaposlenost; štoviše, neke procjene pokazuju da je dio mladih osoba otišao u neaktivnost. Također, pronalazimo statistički značajan negativan učinak na plaće—posebno na plaće žena i visokoobrazovanih—kako u prosjeku tako i na višim percentilima distribucije plaća. Rezultati ovog istraživanja nude uvide u učinkovitost mjera za zapošljavanja mladih u Europi i otvaraju pitanja o prikladnosti korištenja europskih fondova u novim državama članicama EU.

U radu se analizira primjerenost starosnih mirovina u Hrvatskoj mjerena teoretskom stopom zamjene. Pripremljene su projekcije za idućih 40 godina uz pretpostavku nepromijenjenih karakteristika mirovinskog sustava. Rezultati ukazuju kako se u pogledu visine budućih mirovinskih primanja Hrvatska suočava s dva osnovna izazova: (i) smanjivanja relativne visine mirovina mjerene stopom zamjene te (ii) značajne neravnoteže između visine mirovina koje se isplaćuju iz prvog stupa i mješovitih mirovina koje se isplaćuju iz oba obvezna mirovinska stupa. Ako se u mirovinskomu sustavu ništa ne promijeni, radnik koji sa 65 godina starosti i 40 godina radnoga staža odlazi u mirovinu i koji je cijeli radni vijek primao plaću u visini prosječne plaće u zemlji, može očekivati prvu mirovinu u iznosu od približno 53 posto svoje posljednje plaće. Taj će omjer 2050. iznositi 37 posto i mogao bi biti najniži u Europskoj uniji. Simuliraju se učinci nekoliko reformskih mjera te se pokazuje da kombinacija mjera kojom bi se teret reforme raspodijelio između građana i državnoga proračuna ima potencijal dovesti do primjerenijih, ali i dugoročno održivih mirovina. ; The paper explores the adequacy of old-age pensions in Croatia measured by the theoretical replacement rate. The adequacy is assessed for the next 40 years under a no-policy-change assumption. The results point to two major challenges for future pension benefits in Croatia: (i) reduction in the relative pensions measured by the replacement rate, and (ii) significant imbalance between pensions paid from the first pillar and those paid from both mandatory pillars. If nothing changes in the pension system, a worker who retires at 65 years of age after 40 years of service and who received a salary in the amount of the average wage in the country during his whole working life can expect the first pension to be approximately 53 percent of the last-year wage. In 2050, this ratio will be 37 percent and will possibly be the lowest in the European Union. The paper simulates the effects of several reform measures and shows that a combination of measures that could distribute the reform burden between citizens and the state budget has the potential to lead to adequate and sustainable pensions.

U ovome radu opisujemo metodologiju razvoja indeksa online slobodnih radnih mjesta te dokumentiramo stanje, trendove i cjelokupno okruženje potražne strane tržišta rada u Hrvatskoj. Analizom individualnih oglasa za posao donosimo zaključke o trendovima na tržištu rada kroz više dimenzija: na razini zanimanja, geografije, razini traženog obrazovanja te vrsti ugovora koji se nudi. Rezultati pokazuju da konstruirani indeks relativno precizno pokazuje razmjere ekonomske krize koja je zahvatila Hrvatsku od 2008. do 2014. godine te da se regionalna tržišta rada značajno razlikuju. Analizirajući najtraženija zanimanja od 2015. godine na razini cijele Hrvatske zaključujemo da se najviše tražilo prodavača, konobara, kuhara, programera i vozača, što govori u prilog polarizaciji traženih zanimanja. Analizirajući dinamiku tražene razine obrazovanja dolazimo do zaključka da su radnici nižih kvalifikacija sve više traženi. Istovremeno je potražnja za visokoobrazovanim radnicima stabilna, dok udio oglasa za poslove koji traže srednju stručnu spremu značajno pada u promatranom razdoblju. Osim promjene u traženoj razini obrazovanja, tržište rada nakon krize karakterizira i rast nestandardnih tipova ugovora o radu. Analiza online oglasa slobodnih radnih mjesta pokazuje i potencijalnu prisutnost nesklada između ponude i potražnje kod određenih zanimanja, što dodatno upućuje na postojanje strukturne nezaposlenosti na hrvatskom tržištu rada.

This study provides an overview of the main developments in the area of employment and social affairs in Croatia, including relevant legislative and policy measures as well as the role of social partners and social dialogue. It also addresses the use of EU funds in combating unemployment in Croatia and the priorities of Croatia's upcoming Presidency of the EU. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the European Parliament's Committee on Employment and Social Affairs.