Suchergebnisse

AbstractDynamic processes in various fields exhibit risk coupling phenomena, but existing risk analysis studies tend to ignore the risk coupling effects of dynamic scenarios. Considering the principles of digitization, objective quantification, and the full process that should be adopted in the risk coupling analysis, an integrated risk coupling analysis framework is proposed. Specifically, the weighted Eclat algorithm is used to mine the risk association rules, then the key risk factors are extracted by social network analysis, and the stochastic Petri net is used to complete the construction, simulation, and evolution of accident scenarios. This universal framework can analyze the risk phenomena of accident scenario evolution in a process‐oriented manner and decouple risks based on key risk factors and disconnect the chain of the accident scenario evolution process. Finally, the proposed framework is applied to the coupled analysis of fire risk in Chinese urban communities to verify its feasibility and scientific validity.

Maritime safety is a significant topic in the maritime industry since the numerous dangers at sea could lead to loss of property, environmental pollution, and even casualties. Existing research illustrates that human factors are the primary reasons of maritime accidents. Indeed, numerous maritime accidents can be classified into different types of human factors. In this context, the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System for Maritime Accidents (HFACS-MA) model is introduced in this paper. The HFACS-MA framework consists of five levels, complying with the core concepts of HFACS and the guiding principles of the International Maritime Organization (IMO). Based on the five levels of the framework, this research explores the underlying causes of Chinese Eastern Star, Korean Sewol, and Thai Phoenix accidents, and a comparative analysis is conducted. The analysis demonstrates the utility of applying the HFACS-MA model to the maritime industry, and the results emphasize the importance of the following categories: legislation gaps, organizational process, inadequate supervision, communication (ships and VTS), decision errors, and so on. Consequently, the research enables increased support for HFACS-MA and its application and provides valuable information for safety management and policy development in the maritime industry at different levels.