Suchergebnisse

Dose‐response models are the essential link between exposure assessment and computed risk values in quantitative microbial risk assessment, yet the uncertainty that is inherent to computed risks because the dose‐response model parameters are estimated using limited epidemiological data is rarely quantified. Second‐order risk characterization approaches incorporating uncertainty in dose‐response model parameters can provide more complete information to decisionmakers by separating variability and uncertainty to quantify the uncertainty in computed risks. Therefore, the objective of this work is to develop procedures to sample from posterior distributions describing uncertainty in the parameters of exponential and beta‐Poisson dose‐response models using Bayes's theorem and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (in OpenBUGS). The theoretical origins of the beta‐Poisson dose‐response model are used to identify a decomposed version of the model that enables Bayesian analysis without the need to evaluate Kummer confluent hypergeometric functions. Herein, it is also established that the beta distribution in the beta‐Poisson dose‐response model cannot address variation among individual pathogens, criteria to validate use of the conventional approximation to the beta‐Poisson model are proposed, and simple algorithms to evaluate actual beta‐Poisson probabilities of infection are investigated. The developed MCMC procedures are applied to analysis of a case study data set, and it is demonstrated that an important region of the posterior distribution of the beta‐Poisson dose‐response model parameters is attributable to the absence of low‐dose data. This region includes beta‐Poisson models for which the conventional approximation is especially invalid and in which many beta distributions have an extreme shape with questionable plausibility.

There is growing understanding that the environment plays an important role both in the transmission of antibiotic resistant pathogens and in their evolution. Accordingly, researchers and stakeholders world-wide seek to further explore the mechanisms and drivers involved, quantify risks and identify suitable interventions. There is a clear value in establishing research needs and coordinating efforts within and across nations in order to best tackle this global challenge. At an international workshop in late September 2017, scientists from 14 countries with expertise on the environmental dimensions of antibiotic resistance gathered to define critical knowledge gaps. Four key areas were identified where research is urgently needed: 1) the relative contributions of different sources of antibiotics and antibiotic resistant bacteria into the environment; 2) the role of the environment, and particularly anthropogenic inputs, in the evolution of resistance; 3) the overall human and animal health impacts caused by exposure to environmental resistant bacteria; and 4) the efficacy and feasibility of different technological, social, economic and behavioral interventions to mitigate environmental antibiotic resistance. ; The workshop was organized and supported by the Joint Programming Initiative on Antimicrobial Resistance (JPIAMR), the Swedish Research Council (SRC) and the Centre for Antibiotic Resistance Research at University of Gothenburg, Sweden (CARe). This project received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement JPI-EC-AMR No 681055. ; publishedVersion

There is growing understanding that the environment plays an important role both in the transmission of antibiotic resistant pathogens and in their evolution. Accordingly, researchers and stakeholders world-wide seek to further explore the mechanisms and drivers involved, quantify risks and identify suitable interventions. There is a clear value in establishing research needs and coordinating efforts within and across nations in order to best tackle this global challenge. At an international workshop in late September 2017, scientists from 14 countries with expertise on the environmental dimensions of antibiotic resistance gathered to define critical knowledge gaps. Four key areas were identified where research is urgently needed: 1) the relative contributions of different sources of antibiotics and antibiotic resistant bacteria into the environment; 2) the role of the environment, and particularly anthropogenic inputs, in the evolution of resistance; 3) the overall human and animal health impacts caused by exposure to environmental resistant bacteria; and 4) the efficacy and feasibility of different technological, social, economic and behavioral interventions to mitigate environmental antibiotic resistance.1. ; The workshop was organized and supported by the Joint Programming Initiative on Antimicrobial Resistance (JPIAMR), the Swedish Research Council (SRC) and the Centre for Antibiotic Resistance Research at University of Gothenburg, Sweden (CARe). This project received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement JPI-EC-AMR No 681055. Individual member states of the JPIAMR also covered travel costs for participants. ; Sí

Background: Over the past 10-15 years, a substantial amount of work has been done by the scientific, regulatory, and business communities to elucidate the effects and risks of pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) in the environment. Objective: This review was undertaken to identify key outstanding issues regarding the effects of PPCPs on human and ecological health in order to ensure that future resources will be focused on the most important areas. Data sources: To better understand and manage the risks of PPCPs in the environment, we used the "key question" approach to identify the principle issues that need to be addressed. Initially, questions were solicited from academic, government, and business communities around the world. A list of 101 questions was then discussed at an international expert workshop, and a top-20 list was developed. Following the workshop, workshop attendees ranked the 20 questions by importance. Data synthesis: The top 20 priority questions fell into seven categories: a) prioritization of substances for assessment, b) pathways of exposure, c) bioavailability and uptake, d) effects characterization, e) risk and relative risk, f) antibiotic resistance, and g) risk management. Conclusions: A large body of information is now available on PPCPs in the environment. This exercise prioritized the most critical questions to aid in development of future research programs on the topic. ; Centro de Investigaciones del Medioambiente

Background: Over the past 10-15 years, a substantial amount of work has been done by the scientific, regulatory, and business communities to elucidate the effects and risks of pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) in the environment. Objective: This review was undertaken to identify key outstanding issues regarding the effects of PPCPs on human and ecological health in order to ensure that future resources will be focused on the most important areas. Data sources: To better understand and manage the risks of PPCPs in the environment, we used the "key question" approach to identify the principle issues that need to be addressed. Initially, questions were solicited from academic, government, and business communities around the world. A list of 101 questions was then discussed at an international expert workshop, and a top-20 list was developed. Following the workshop, workshop attendees ranked the 20 questions by importance. Data synthesis: The top 20 priority questions fell into seven categories: a) prioritization of substances for assessment, b) pathways of exposure, c) bioavailability and uptake, d) effects characterization, e) risk and relative risk, f) antibiotic resistance, and g) risk management. Conclusions: A large body of information is now available on PPCPs in the environment. This exercise prioritized the most critical questions to aid in development of future research programs on the topic. ; Fil: Boxall, Alistair B. A. University of York; Reino Unido ; Fil: Rudd, Murray A. University of York; Reino Unido ; Fil: Brooks, Bryan W. Baylor University; Estados Unidos ; Fil: Caldwell, Daniel J. Johnson & Johnson; Estados Unidos ; Fil: Choi, Kyungho. Seoul National University; Corea del Sur ; Fil: Hickmann, Silke. Umweltbundesamt; Alemania ; Fil: Innes, Elizabeth. Health Canada; Canadá ; Fil: Ostapyk, Kim. Health Canada; Canadá ; Fil: Staveley, Jane P. Exponent; Estados Unidos ; Fil: Verslycke, Tim. Gradient; Estados Unidos ; Fil: Ankley, Gerald T. United States Environmental Protection Agency; Estados Unidos ; Fil: Beazley, Karen F. Dalhousie University Halifax; Canadá ; Fil: Belanger, Scott E. Procter And Gamble; Estados Unidos ; Fil: Berninger, Jason P. Baylor University; Estados Unidos ; Fil: Carriquiriborde, Pedro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas. Departamento de Química. Centro de Investigaciones del Medio Ambiente; Argentina ; Fil: Coors, Anja. Ect Oekotoxikologie Gmbh; Alemania ; Fil: DeLeo, Paul C. American Cleaning Institute; Estados Unidos ; Fil: Dyer, Scott D. Procter And Gamble; Estados Unidos ; Fil: Ericson, Jon F. Pfizer Inc.; Estados Unidos ; Fil: Gagné, François. Environment Canada; Canadá ; Fil: Giesy, John P. University of Saskatchewan; Canadá ; Fil: Gouin, Todd. Unilever; Reino Unido ; Fil: Hallstrom, Lars. University of Alberta; Canadá ; Fil: Karlsson, Maja V. University of York; Reino Unido ; Fil: Joakim Larsson, D.G. University of Göteborg; Alemania ; Fil: Lazorchak, James M. United States Environmental Protection Agency; Estados Unidos ; Fil: Mastrocco, Frank. Pfizer Inc.; Estados Unidos ; Fil: McLaughlin, Alison. Health Canada; Canadá ; Fil: McMaster, Mark E. Environment Canada; Canadá ; Fil: Meyerhoff, Roger D. Eli Lilly And Company; Estados Unidos ; Fil: Moore, Roberta. Health Canada; Canadá ; Fil: Parrott, Joanne L. Environment Canada; Canadá ; Fil: Snape, Jason R. AstraZeneca UK Ltd.; Reino Unido ; Fil: Murray-Smith, Richard. AstraZeneca UK Ltd.; Reino Unido ; Fil: Servos, Mark R. University of Waterloo; Canadá ; Fil: Sibley, Paul K. University of Guelph; Canadá ; Fil: Straub, Jürg Oliver. F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd.; Suiza ; Fil: Szabo, Nora D. University of Ottawa; Canadá ; Fil: Topp, Edward. Agriculture Et Agroalimentaire Canada; Canadá ; Fil: Tetreault, Gerald R. University of Waterloo; Canadá ; Fil: Trudeau, Vance L. University of Ottawa; Canadá ; Fil: Van Der Kraak, Glen. University of Guelph; Canadá