Suchergebnisse

Stylised facts of GDP growth patterns of developing (or transition) countries reveal huge difference to the GDP pattern observed in developed countries. Namely, they are characterised by a specific characteristic - instability, much higher and different from the ones observed in developed countries. This paper brings forward the assessment of the instability of growth, which is observed and tested in the case of several Balkan economies. In the course of transition, they experienced sudden turns from positive to negative average growth rates (or vice versa) caused by many structural, economic, political and social changes. Hence, the main purpose of the paper is to review the very recent literature on instability in growth and to empirically analyse it in the case of Balkan group of transition economies, performed by use of the simple linear regression analysis on the GDP growth data series. Main goal is to determine whether GDP growth patterns in the course of transition were characterised by instability and breaks. The results suggest that the growth process in Balkan economies cannot be described simply by a single rising trend, since the simple linear regression analysis shows very poor statistical fit. In general, the assessment guides towards an in-depth study of the instability of growth in the course of transition with a novel growth concept that will allow for shifts or breaks in trend, accompanied by a non-linear modelling approach that will allow the parameters to adjust to reflect structural changes in the course of transition.

Background and objective Tobacco tax evasion undermines the goal of tobacco taxes as a tobacco control measure to make tobacco products less affordable, increases the health risks for those who smoke and decreases the government revenue. This paper analyses the tobacco tax evasion in six Western Balkan (WB) countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia. The aim of this research is to estimate the size of the illicit market and identify the main determinants of tax evasion activities in the Southeastern European region. Data and methods Data from 2019 Survey on Tobacco Consumption in Southeastern Europe (STCSEE) are used. STC-SEE provides uniquely comparable nationally representative data on smoking behaviour for adult (18–85 years old) population for each country. Tax evasion is defined on the basis of available information on tax stamps, health warnings, price and the place of purchase, in accordance with the previous research on tax evasion. In order to estimate the determinants of illicit purchases we use binary choice model of tax evasion. Results The study finds that 20.4% of all current smokers in WB countries evade taxes on tobacco products, with evasion being much more frequent for hand-rolled (HR) tobacco (86.7%) than for the manufactured cigarettes (MC) (8.6%). While HR is predominantly illicit in all six countries, MC evasion varies significantly, with evasion being significantly higher in Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Results further suggest that tax evasion is higher in the statistical regions where institutional capacities to tackle illicit trade are lower, in municipalities bordering countries with high MC evasion, as well as among smokers with low income, women and elderly. We also provide evidence that higher tobacco taxes and prices do not increase illicit consumption. Conclusion The findings from the research suggest that in order to decrease tax evasion, governments should put additional effort to strengthen institutional capacities to tackle illicit tobacco markets. Furthermore, improving regional coordination in development and implementation of tobacco control policies, including the prevention of illicit market, is essential in lowering evasion in all WB countries. Finally, WB countries should regulate and enforce excise tax stamp requirements on the HR tobacco market to a much higher degree.