Suchergebnisse

Die COVID-19-Todesfälle sind nur die Spitze eines Eisbergs. Staatliche Maßnahmen zur Unterstützung von Familien könnten die Auswirkungen der Pandemie auf andere demografische Ereignisse, wie zum Beispiel die Fertilität, abmildern. - Bei der Bekämpfung von COVID-19 sollten politische Entscheidungsträger*innen berücksichtigen, inwiefern die Altersstruktur und Formen des Zusammenlebens die Infektionsund Todeszahlen beeinflussen können. - Auf nationaler Ebene müssen die statistischen Ämter ihre Datenerfassungssysteme verbessern, sodass auf Registerdaten besser und schneller zugegriffen werden kann. - Das Ausmaß der Übersterblichkeit variiert stark zwischen europäischen Ländern, und auch innerhalb eines Landes gibt es deutliche Unterschiede. Die genauen Gründe für den Erfolg oder Misserfolg einer Region stehen noch nicht fest, sodass in diesem Bereich mehr Forschung notwendig ist.

Abstract

Aim
To forecast age- and sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality in France for the period 2015–2050 using a novel generalizable methodology that includes different scenarios regarding period and cohort change.


Methods
For the French national population aged 25–90 years (1979–2014), we estimated alcohol-attributable mortality by mortality from the main causes of death wholly attributable to alcohol, plus liver cirrhosis mortality. We modelled sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality by adjusting for age, period and birth cohort. We forecasted the model parameters to obtain future age- and sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality up until 2050 using a conventional baseline, scenario I (favourable period change) and scenario II (unfavourable cohort change).


Results
Alcohol-attributable mortality is clearly declining in France, with the decline decelerating from 1992 onwards. In 2014, the age-standardized alcohol-attributable mortality rates, in deaths per 100,000, were 34.7 among men and 9.9 among women. In 2050, the estimated rates are between 10.5 (prediction interval: 7.6–14.4; scenario I) and 17.6 (13.1–23.7; scenario II) among men, and between 1.1 (0.7–1.7; scenario I) and 1.8 (1.2–2.9; scenario II) among women; which implies declines of 58% for men and 84% for women (baseline).


Conclusion
Alcohol-attributable mortality in France is expected to further decline in the coming decades, accompanied by age pattern changes. However, France's levels are not expected to reach the current lower levels in Italy and Spain for 15 years or more. Our results point to the value of implementing preventive policy measures that discourage alcohol consumption among people of all ages, but especially among adolescents.

Accurate and timely data on COVID-19 are essential to understand the pandemic and guide policy decisions.1 Several countries openly release coherent and exhaustive daily updates of age-specific and sex-specific COVID-19 cases, deaths, hospitalisations and, more recently, vaccinations, whereas other countries still have trouble providing detailed and harmonised data.2 The pandemic is currently producing an extremely high incidence of cases due to the Omicron variant, especially in Europe. On Jan 11, 2022, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA, forecasted that more than 50% of the population in Europe would be infected with Omicron in the next 6–8 weeks.3 Despite this forecast, some European governments are considering treating COVID-19 as an endemic illness. This change would establish an epidemiological surveillance system similar to those used for primary-care sentinel influenza-like illnesses, prompting a substantial loss of follow-up in data collection of the usual daily indicators (eg, incident cases, hospitalisations, intensive care unit admissions, and deaths) and contact tracing. Moreover, breaking key time-trends in the current indicators would make evaluating future health policy interventions, analysing vaccination procedures, and comparing outcomes across countries and over time challenging. Post COVID-19 condition, known as long COVID, has been well established to occur in people with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Long COVID usually occurs 3 months after the onset of COVID-19, with symptoms that last for at least 2 months that cannot be explained by an alternative diagnosis.4 A substantial number of people with COVID-19 have long COVID. WHO estimates that about 20% of people with COVID-19 have continuing symptoms 4–5 weeks after testing positive, and 10% have symptoms after 12 weeks.4 However, most studies focus on symptomatology, and surveillance of long COVID is not yet routine in European countries. Consequently, detailed population data is necessary to understand the prevalence and mechanisms of long COVID in different population groups, patients' needs in health and social services, and the economic consequences. It is crucial to continue collecting daily data for the current morbidity, mortality, and vaccination indicators through the following stages of the pandemic, because treating COVID-19 as an endemic illness does not make it harmless.5 COVID-19 data should also be linked with national health and social registries to monitor the effect of current and potential new variants and the effect of long COVID on the population. We declare no competing interests. ; Peer reviewed

Este artículo analiza dos posibles condicionantes de la discapacidad entre los mayores españoles (edades 65-89) residentes en hogares: su adscripción generacional y su estatus socioeconómico. Se utilizan microdatos de la Encuesta Nacional de Salud de España con los que se construye un indicador de discapacidad en escala continua a partir de la autonomía declarada para la realización de actividades cotidianas. Se aplican modelos de regresión lineal para hombres y mujeres con las siguientes variables de control: edad, cohorte de nacimiento, nivel educativo y estatura autodeclarada. Los resultados indican estabilidad en los niveles de discapacidad entre grupos sucesivos de generaciones y la existencia de un gradiente socioeconómico de discapacidad, especialmente entre las mujeres y en las edades centrales de la vejez (70 a 79 años).