Suchergebnisse

Population growth slowed across the world in the last decades of the 20th century, changing substantially our view of the future. The 21st century is likely to see the end to world population growth and become the century of population aging, marked by low fertility and ever-increasing life expectancy. These trends have prompted many to predict a gloomy future caused by an unprecedented economic burden of population aging. In response, industrialized nations will need to implement effective social and economic policies and programs. This is the final volume in a series of three. The papers included explore many examples and strengthen the basis for effective economic and social policies by investigating the economic, social, and demographic consequences of the transformations in the structures of population and family. These consequences include changes in economic behavior, both in labor and financial markets, and with regard to saving and consumption, and intergenerational transfers of money and care. TOC:Introduction: Shripad Tuljapurkar, Naohiro Ogawa, and Anne Gauthier.-1: Age-Structural Transitions in Industrialized Countries: Ian Pool.- 2: On Age Structures and Mortality: Nico Keilman.-3: Long-Run Relationships in Differential U.S. Mortality Forecasts by Race and Sex: Tests for Cointegration: Lawrence Carter.- 4: Uncertain Demographic Futures and Government Budgets in the U.S.: Ronald Lee, Shripad Tuljapurkar, Ryan Edwards.- 5: Life, Death, and the Economy: Mortality Change in Overlapping-Generations Model: Qi Li and Shripad Tuljapurkar.- 6: International Adverse Selection in Life Insurance and Annuities: David McCarthy, Olivia S. Mitchell.- 7: Aging, Family Support Systems, Saving, and Wealth: Is Decline on the Horizon for Japan?: Andrew Mason, Naohiro Ogawa, Takehiro Fukui.- 8: The Future Costs of Health Care in Aging Societies: Is the Glass Half Full or Half Empty?: Deborah Freund, Timothy Smeeding.- 9: Family Support for Older People: Determinants and Consequences: Emily Grundy.- 10: Care of the Elderly and Women`s Labour Force Participation in Japan: Naohiro Ogawa, Robert Retherford, Yasuhiko Saito.- 11: Family and Kinship Networks in the Context of Ageing Societies: Michael Murphy.- 12: Historical Trends in the Patterns of Time Use of Older Adults: Anne Gauthier, Timothy Smeeding.- 13: An Economic Analysis of Age Discrimination - The Impact of Mandatory Retirement and Age Limitations in Hiring on the Utilization of Human Resources in an Aging Society: Atsushi Seike

This paper describes how stochastic population forecasts are used to inform and analyze policies related to government spending on the elderly, mainly in the context of the industrialized nations. The paper first presents methods for making probabilistic forecasts of demographic rates, mortality, fertility, and immigration, and shows how these are combined to make stochastic forecasts of population number and composition, using forecasts of the U.S. population by way of illustration. Next, the paper discusses how demographic models and economic models can be combined into an integrated projection model of transfer systems such as social security. Finally, the paper shows how these integrated models describe various dimensions of policy-relevant risk, and discusses the nature and implications of risk in evaluating policy alternatives.

This indispensable guide provides a comprehensive treatment of the construction and analysis of models for age- and stage-classified populations. It covers methods based on projection matrices, delay-differential equations, and partial-differential equations. The book addresses both field and laboratory studies on a wide range of specific ecosystems and taxa, as well as problems in evolution, genetics, conservation biology and epidemiology

In the 21st century, the populations of the world's nations will display large and long-lived changes in age structure. Many of these began with fertility change and are amplified by declining mortality and by migration within and between nations. Demography will matter in this century not by force of numbers, but by the pressures of waves of age structural change. Many developing countries are in relatively early stages of fertility decline and will experience age waves for two or more generations. These waves create shifting flows of people into the key age groups, greatly complicating the task of managing development, from building human capabilities and creating jobs to growing industry, infrastructure and institutions. In this book, distinguished scientists examine key demographic, social, economic, and policy aspects of age structural change in developing economies. This book provides a joint examination of dimensions of age structural change that have often been considered in isolation from each other (for example, education, job creation, land use, health), it uses case studies to examine policy consequences and options and develops qualitative and formal methods to analyze the dynamics and consequences of age structural change.