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Previously it has been found that an important risk buffering strategy in the Saami reindeer husbandry in Norway is the accumulation of large herds of reindeer as this increases long-term household viability. Nevertheless, few studies have investigated how official policies, such as economic compensation for livestock losses, can influence pastoral strategies. This study investigated the effect of received predation compensation on individual husbandry units' future herd size. The main finding in this study is that predation compensation had a positive effect on husbandry units' future herd size. The effect of predation compensation, however, was nonlinear in some years, indicating that predation compensation had a positive effect on future herd size only up to a certain threshold whereby adding additional predation compensation had little effect on future herd size. More importantly, the effect of predation compensation was positive after controlling for reindeer density, indicating that for a given reindeer density husbandry units receiving more predation compensation performed better (measured as the size of future herds) compared to husbandry units receiving less compensation.

Previously it has been found that an important risk buffering strategy in the Saami reindeer husbandry in Norway is the accumulation of large herds of reindeer as this increases long-term household viability. Nevertheless, few studies have investigated how official policies, such as economic compensation for livestock losses, can influence pastoral strategies. This study investigated the effect of received predation compensation on individual husbandry units' future herd size. The main finding in this study is that predation compensation had a positive effect on husbandry units' future herd size. The effect of predation compensation, however, was nonlinear in some years, indicating that predation compensation had a positive effect on future herd size only up to a certain threshold whereby adding additional predation compensation had little effect on future herd size. More importantly, the effect of predation compensation was positive after controlling for reindeer density, indicating that for a given reindeer density husbandry units receiving more predation compensation performed better (measured as the size of future herds) compared to husbandry units receiving less compensation. ; Pastoral herding strategies and governmental management objectives: predation compensation as a risk buffering strategy in the Saami reindeer husbandry ; publishedVersion

Previously it has been found that an important risk buffering strategy in the Saami reindeer husbandry in Norway is the accumulation of large herds of reindeer as this increases long-term household viability. Nevertheless, few studies have investigated how official policies, such as economic compensation for livestock losses, can influence pastoral strategies. This study investigated the effect of received predation compensation on individual husbandry units' future herd size. The main finding in this study is that predation compensation had a positive effect on husbandry units' future herd size. The effect of predation compensation, however, was nonlinear in some years, indicating that predation compensation had a positive effect on future herd size only up to a certain threshold whereby adding additional predation compensation had little effect on future herd size. More importantly, the effect of predation compensation was positive after controlling for reindeer density, indicating that for a given reindeer density husbandry units receiving more predation compensation performed better (measured as the size of future herds) compared to husbandry units receiving less compensation.

Large carnivore populations are recovering in many parts of the world and this generates conflicts with humans, notably in terms of livestock depredation. Governmental programs of mitigation measures and compensation for losses are often implemented to reduce conflicts, but the factors affecting losses are poorly understood. We used 11 years of data on domestic sheep (Ovis aries) claimed, and confirmed, to have been killed by predators in Norway to evaluate how predator density, flock management, and other environmental or habitat‐related variables are related to losses. The percentage of animals claimed as lost that was found and confirmed to have been killed by large predators (i.e., the detection rate) was low, especially for sheep claimed as killed by Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), wolverine (Gulo gulo) and golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos). Still, we generally found that similar factors predicted the number of claims and number of carcasses found across predator species. Predator density was strongly associated with losses, especially for sheep claimed as killed by brown bears (Ursus arctos), lynx and wolverines. Percentage of forest in the pastures, average slaughter weight of the lambs (an indicator of the forage conditions during summer) and vegetation characteristics in the spring also predicted the number of sheep claimed and found killed by lynx, wolverines and eagles. Factors related to losses due to wolves (Canis lupus) were harder to ascertain, possibly because of the severity of mitigation measures (e.g., electric fences) taken to protect sheep in wolf territories, a factor we were not able to include in our large scale analyses. Patrolling of the grazing area and early gathering of sheep in the autumn were not associated with a substantial reduction in losses. However, our dataset was not well suited to evaluate the efficiency of those mitigation strategies. Our findings could help develop new mitigation strategies as alternatives to predator removal where large carnivore conservation is a concern.

To ensure economic viability over time, any efforts to meet the Millennium Development Goals need to reconcile conservation with development interventions. Particularly, in marginal and risk prone areas erosion of resilience could make production systems more susceptible to environmental risks that compromise the economic security. By longitudinal analyses of long-term data records we investigated the impacts of big push policies on Saami pastoral ecosystems in Arctic Norway. The big push was accompanied by reindeer herd accumulation and a corresponding degradation of resilience, increasing the susceptibility to herd losses to predators and adverse winters. For the last 20 years the Norwegian government has worked to halt degradation of pasture ecosystems and reduce susceptibility to environmental risks. These intended win-win policies have mainly been based on economic incentives, which have been developed together with Saami pastoralists through negotiated agreements. We argue that the continued degradation of the Saami pastoral ecosystems is a "ghost of the development past", as the big push policies have resulted in an economic security trap (EST). The gradual reduction of resilience has persisted as the ex post payments of disaster relief and predator compensation have impeded the long-term actions to reduce susceptibility to environmental risks, i.e., ex ante policies, thereby increasing dependency on elevated economic inputs to manage the risks. The transfer of liability for managing risks to the benefactor, both through ex ante and ex post policies, has further discouraged and constrained opportunities for adaptation by the pastoralists.