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In: Journal of risk and uncertainty, Band 7, Heft 2, S. 147-175
ISSN: 1573-0476
In: Journal of risk and uncertainty, Band 5, Heft 4, S. 297-323
ISSN: 1573-0476
In: Journal of risk and uncertainty, Band 4, Heft 1, S. 5-28
ISSN: 1573-0476
In: American political science review, Band 82, Heft 3, S. 719-736
ISSN: 1537-5943
We contrast the rational theory of choice in the form of expected utility theory with descriptive psychological analysis in the form of prospect theory, using problems involving the choice between political candidates and public referendum issues. The results showed that the assumptions underlying the classical theory of risky choice are systematically violated in the manner predicted by prospect theory. In particular, our respondents exhibited risk aversion in the domain of gains, risk seeking in the domain of losses, and a greater sensitivity to losses than to gains. This is consistent with the advantage of the incumbent under normal conditions and the potential advantage of the challenger in bad times. The results further show how a shift in the reference point could lead to reversals of preferences in the evaluation of political and economic options, contrary to the assumption of invariance. Finally, we contrast the normative and descriptive analyses of uncertainty in choice and address the rationality of voting.
In: American political science review, Band 82, Heft 3, S. 719
ISSN: 0003-0554
In: The journal of business, Band 59, Heft S4, S. S251
ISSN: 1537-5374
In: Behavioral science, Band 19, Heft 6, S. 368-373
The thirty-five chapters in this book describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Individual chapters discuss the representativeness and availability heuristics, problems in judging covariation and control, overconfidence, multistage inference, social perception, medical diagnosis, risk perception, and methods for correcting and improving judgments under uncertainty. About half of the chapters are edited versions of classic articles; the remaining chapters are newly written for this book. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas of research and application rather than describing single experimental studies. This book will be useful to a wide range of students and researchers, as well as to decision makers seeking to gain insight into their judgments and to improve them
In: Journal of risk and uncertainty, Band 13, Heft 1, S. 5-17
ISSN: 1573-0476
In: Administrative Science Quarterly, Band 35, Heft 2, S. 406
In: Politische Vierteljahresschrift: PVS : German political science quarterly, Band 38, Heft 1, S. 208
ISSN: 0032-3470