Developing country export growth technology and labour markets in developed countries: general equilibrium perspectives
In: Working papers in economics and econometrics 315
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In: Working papers in economics and econometrics 315
In: Working papers in trade and development [19]87,10
In: Scottish journal of political economy: the journal of the Scottish Economic Society, Band 63, Heft 1, S. 66-88
ISSN: 1467-9485
AbstractChina's comparatively rapid consumption growth since 2010 and its increasing economic similarity with advanced economies, imply that consumer and business confidence are now central to performance, changing its global impacts and rendering recession more likely. The international effects of its new growth pattern are quantified using a global macro model with national portfolio rebalancing. The transition to consumption‐led growth is shown to foster employment abroad while a major Chinese recession is shown to be damaging to the advanced economies and particularly to the US, the more so if China's policy response is expansionary and includes floating the RMB.
In: The Australian economic review, Band 48, Heft 4, S. 333-356
ISSN: 1467-8462
Export led growth has been very effective in modernising China's economy and establishing a large high-saving middle class. Notwithstanding political opposition from trading partners, this growth strategy has also offered the rest of the world improved terms of trade in both product and financial markets, in the form of cheaper light manufactures and cheaper credit. Yet slowing demand in export destinations has forced a transition to inward-sourced growth. This paper uses a numerical model of the Chinese economy with oligopoly behaviour to examine the available "inward" sources of transformative growth along with the policies needed to exploit them. The potential for further "transformative" growth is shown to be considerable though it will require accelerated skilled labour supply growth and the politically difficult extension of industry policy reform to heavy manufacturing and services.
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Export led growth has been very effective in modernising China's economy and establishing a large high-saving middle class. Notwithstanding political opposition from trading partners, this growth strategy has also offered the rest of the world improved terms of trade in both product and financial markets, in the form of cheaper light manufactures and cheaper credit. Yet slowing demand in export destinations has forced a transition to inward-sourced growth. This paper uses a numerical model of the Chinese economy with oligopoly behaviour to examine the available "inward" sources of transformative growth along with the policies needed to exploit them. The potential for further "transformative" growth is shown to be considerable though it will require accelerated skilled labour supply growth and the politically difficult extension of industry policy reform to heavy manufacturing and services.
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In: CAMA Working Paper No. 29/2015
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In: CAMA Working Paper 9/2015
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In: Crawford School CAMA Working Paper No. 2/2015
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In: China economic review, Band 29, S. 166-184
ISSN: 1043-951X
In: CAMA Working Paper No. 29/2014
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In: CAMA Working Paper 5/2014
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In: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis Working Paper No. 48/2013
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In: Centre for Applied Microeconomics (CAMA) Working Paper No. 20/2011
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