THERE'S TWO WAYS TO DERIVE INFLUENCES ABOUT RELATIONSHPS AMONG VARIABLES. ONE REQUIRES A PRIORI INFORMATION STRESSING JUSTIFICATION;THE OTHER DOCUSES ON THE DISCOVRY OF VARIABLES AND IS MORE CONCERNED WITH THE STRENGTH OF RELATIONSHIPS AS DETERMINED BY PREDICTION AND REPLICATION. ADDITIONAL DATA COVERING JUDICIAL BEHAVIOR BASED ON A EARLIER ART BY THIS AUTHOR ARE PRESENTED TO ILLUSTRATE THE LATTER VIEW.
THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO POSSIBLE WAYS TO DERIVE INFERENCES ABOUT RELATIONSHIPS AMONG VARIABLES. ONE REQUIRES A PRIORI INFORMATION AND STRESSES JUSTIFICATION ; THE OTHER FOCUSES ON THE DISCOVERY OF VARIABLES AND IS MORE CONCERNED WITH THE STRENGTH OF RELATIONSHIPS AS DETERMINED BY PREDICTION AND REPLICATION.
In Military Justice and the Right to Counsel, S. Sidney Ulmer seeks to explore and compare the right to counsel that has been afforded the American serviceman and that which has been granted his citizen counterpart in the civil courts. The civil and constitutional rights of the serviceman and the civilian in the context of criminal prosecutions are implemented in two distinct legal settings a civil system of state and federal courts, including the United States Supreme Court, and a military system composed of courts martial, boards of review, and the United States Court of Military Appeals. U
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In this research note I seek to determine whether a significantly predicting social background model for analyzing the votes of Supreme Court justices is time-bound. I argue that an affirmative result poses serious questions for past uses of such models, none of which has controlled for the possibility that time is a confounding variable. A model that significantly predicted the votes of the justices in the Court's 1903–1968 terms was constructed. Analysis with this model for two periods—from 1903 to 1935, and from 1936 to 1968—established that the model was not timeneutral. Appropriate theoretical implications are drawn.
In the period from 1947 to 1976, the United States Supreme Court has denied certiorari in more than half the cases involving conflict with Supreme Court precedent or intercircuit conflict. In both instances, the denial rate has been higher in the Burger Court than in the Vinson and Warren Courts and denial has been greater for intercircuit conflict cases than for cases in which the ruling in the lower court was in conflict with one or more Supreme Court precedents. When conflict was conceptualized as a predictor of decision and examined along with federal government as petitioning party, economic issues, and civil liberty issues, it was found to have 4 to 7 times the predictive power of the other variables combined for the Vinson and Warren Courts. For the Burger Court, the petitioning party variable was found to be a better predictor than conflict, but conflict was a much better predictor than the subject variables. Discriminant function models using the four predictor variables were able to account for up to 36.9% of the variance in the Supreme Court's certiorari decisions, almost all of which was the result of the contributions made by the conflict and party factors.
