Suchergebnisse

A number of para-academic tendencies in Russian social science helped prepare the Ukraine war. In addition to propaganda and disinformation campaigns by the Kremlin, an intellectual deformation of the Russian elite by the Manichean ideas of such theorists as Lev Gumilyov and Aleksandr Dugin is partly responsible for Russia's increasing secession from Europe. Post-Soviet public discourse has become infected with an array of speculative, often conspiratorial, and sometimes occultist or racist theories. Their proponents have crowded out acknowledged social scientists and historians from intellectual and media debates. This parallel public discourse has been developing since the beginning of glasnost, 35 years ago, and became one of the determinants of Russia's attack on Ukraine in 2014.

This article was submitted in late 2021, and became dated after Russia's demonstrative preparation as well as start of an open, large‐scale invasion of Ukraine early 2022. We nevertheless publish this commentary here in order to document the debate about the events leading to the escalation. No adaptations to the original 2021 article were made after the outbreak of high‐intensity war on 24 February 2022. Avoiding a larger military escalation in the Russian–Ukrainian conflict is an important aim. Yet, historical experience suggests that concessions by Ukraine or its Western partners toward Russian revanchist aspirations in the Donbas may not help achieve it. On the contrary, Western softness, and Ukrainian weakness vis‐à‐vis the Kremlin will lead to further confrontation.