Suchergebnisse

Motivation: The EU sugar industry is one of the most regulated industry which is subject to import duties, subsidies and quotas. Government intervention in sugar markets significantly affects sugar production, consumption and trade. The GATT/WTO negotiations led to the commencement of the liberalization process in the EU sugar market, and initiated a number of reforms aimed at abolishing government support. Consequently, the sugar market in the EU has undergone considerable changes. Proper recognition of the directions of changes will contribute to reducing the difficulties of entities operating on the global sugar market. Aim: The purpose of this publication is to present the forecasts made in 2017 regarding the main categories characterizing the EU sugar market and to verify their validity following the analysis of the actual data. The work uses the forecasts made for 2017–2020 based on empirical data collected from 1993–2016, and then verifies their validity when set against the real data. Results: The results of the research showed that statistical models are not able to predict correctly not only the forecasted values, but also the directions of their changes. The range of indicators of forecast errors was almost 40 percentage points, which reduced their credibility. The Pearson correlation index of over 0.7 indicated a significant correlation between the real data and the forecast values for the consumption or sugar beet harvest, while interpreting the discrepancy coefficient index, which did not exceed 1 for the forecast of the sugar production volume. This allows to conclude that this forecast shows the smallest differentiation in comparison to the actual data obtained.

Motivation: The EU sugar industry is one of the most regulated industry which is subject to import duties, subsidies and quotas. Government intervention in sugar markets significantly affects sugar production, consumption and trade. The GATT/WTO negotiations led to the commencement of the liberalization process in the EU sugar market, and initiated a number of reforms aimed at abolishing government support. Consequently, the sugar market in the EU has undergone considerable changes. Proper recognition of the directions of changes will contribute to reducing the difficulties of entities operating on the global sugar market. Aim: The purpose of this publication is to present the forecasts made in 2017 regarding the main categories characterizing the EU sugar market and to verify their validity following the analysis of the actual data. The work uses the forecasts made for 2017–2020 based on empirical data collected from 1993–2016, and then verifies their validity when set against the real data. Results: The results of the research showed that statistical models are not able to predict correctly not only the forecasted values, but also the directions of their changes. The range of indicators of forecast errors was almost 40 percentage points, which reduced their credibility. The Pearson correlation index of over 0.7 indicated a significant correlation between the real data and the forecast values for the consumption or sugar beet harvest, while interpreting the discrepancy coefficient index, which did not exceed 1 for the forecast of the sugar production volume. This allows to conclude that this forecast shows the smallest differentiation in comparison to the actual data obtained.

The aim of the article was to assess the development process of dairy cooperatives in Poland over the last 150 years, with the economic situation and the impact of legal regulations taken into account, and to assess empirical research findings on how dairy cooperatives operate according to their members (benefits of membership, development opportunities and threats). Despite the long tradition and experience in cooperation between dairies and farmers, the period of the centrally planned economy and economic transformation brought many changes. Poland's EU accession has improved their development opportunities. The cooperatives have a high share in the milk purchase and dairy product sale. The cooperation with farmers has improved. However, there are still areas that need to be improved in the real spirit of the cooperative idea because they concern the basic economic benefits of membership and the principles of function of coops.