Suchergebnisse

This paper is limited to a narrow portion of the field of economic growth. Its purpose is to discover how growth in the labour force, capital accumulation, and technological change have affected the movements of factor prices (particularly the return to capital) in a private enterprise economy. The question of what may happen to the return on capital, and indeed to all factor prices, is an old one. There is now material to provide some evidence of what has happened.The first part of the paper deals briefly with the theory of the matter and provides a rough model. The second part explores the dimensions which quantitative data for the United States for a period of 100 years put on the variables and parameters of the model. Finally there are some comments related to the possible bearing of the results on future changes in the economic variables dealt with. The analysis is entirely for the long period.It is evident from the discussion that I assume that factor prices are determined by the factors' marginal productivities.In what follows I take much that is commonly accepted for granted and use many obiter dicta, some of which are justified in footnotes.

International discussions with a view to establishing improved conditions in international trade began early in the war. There was a general feeling that world trading relations during the inter-war period, particularly after 1929, had been most unsatisfactory. It was realized also that at the conclusion of hostilities large quantities of capital equipment would have been destroyed or worn out, that the relative financial position of the major trading countries would be drastically altered, and that the productive structures and capacities of all but a few of the belligerents would be badly disrupted. Since wide reconversion and reconstruction were going to be necessary in any event, national economies could perhaps be moulded with a view to fitting in with more liberal trading policies and, if the type of framework for expanding multilateral trade could be established, there was less possibility of countries developing what they might feel later were vested rights in restrictive business practices.Consequently, as early as 1942, a series of international discussions was begun with the object of establishing those monetary and trade relations which would provide the desired framework for international trade. The outcome has been the establishment of, or provision for, a number of interrelated international institutions. While the whole programme has included many provisions, such as UNRRA., E.R.P. and the like, to meet temporary problems, and while some of these are of great importance in helping to place disrupted economies in a position where they can play their part in a restored world economy, from the long-run point of view the major achievements are four in number: the establishment of an International Bank for Reconstruction and Development; the establishment of an International Monetary Fund; the preparation of a final draft of a charter to establish an International Trade Organization; and the conclusion of the Geneva Trade Agreement, lowering barriers to trade among the most important trading nations of the world.

Prior to 1930 discussion of public investment was conducted largely on the basis of an assumption of full employment within a closed economy. Consequently it centred around the productiveness of public investment as opposed to that undertaken in the privately-operated sector of the economy, the appropriate methods of financing the projects undertaken, and the legitimate spheres of operation of public bodies. The usefulness of public investment projects was believed, in the main, to be confined to their long term contribution to the productiveness of the economy. In practice, even well into the nineteen-thirties, governments, with exceptions, undertook public projects when finances were buoyant and borrowing relatively easy, and curtailed them, in attempts to balance budgets, when depression became serious.After 1930 both in the thought and practices of some central governments and in economic writing the pendulum swung the other way. Main emphasis was laid on the current employment and income giving effects of public investment. This change in emphasis received additional impetus after the advent of The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money when economic discussion became much more concerned with the level of employment than the distribution of the factors of production among alternative uses.The transfer of attention from the long term aspects of public projects to their effect on current employment and income maintenance was accompanied by the shortcomings of practice and thought which are inevitable in an undeveloped field. While a good deal was written and spoken about the desirability of well thought out and well planned investment, insufficient attention was given to its attainment and in practice resort was had to many undertakings whose value, from either a short or long term viewpoint, was dubious. The shortcomings were largely associated with failure to cope adequately with the institutional and administrative problem involved. Further, there was a penchant for fastening on single devices to meet the overall employment problem.

This study focuses primarily on the movements of people and capital between a number of selected European and overseas countries during a phase of mass migration. The data indicate that the international movements of people, capital, and goods were extremely fluid, were adaptable, and took place under highly diverse conditions of population change and economic growth. A number of uniformities emerge, including for example a close relationship between international borrowing, high growth rates, and large flows of immigrants. These and a variety of other general patterns are examined as aspects of the massive demographic shifts of this period.