A method for assessing the global spread of HIV‐1 infection based on air travel
In: Mathematical population studies: an international journal of mathematical demography, Band 3, Heft 3, S. 161-171
ISSN: 1547-724X
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In: Mathematical population studies: an international journal of mathematical demography, Band 3, Heft 3, S. 161-171
ISSN: 1547-724X
In: Population: revue bimestrielle de l'Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques. French edition, Band 22, Heft 5, S. 948
ISSN: 0718-6568, 1957-7966
The First World War was a historical experiment for early-life stress. Fathers of hundreds of thousands of children of all ages were killed during the conflict. The Developmental Origins of Health and Disease hypothesis predicts long-term effects of early-life stress. We collected historical data on French orphans born 1914–1916 and their fathers' military records and compared the orphans' mortality in adulthood (age 31–99 y) with that of matched nonorphans. We found a strong decrease in lifespan, reflecting increased mortality before age 65 y, in persons whose fathers died before, not after, their birth. These results support the notion that maternal psychological stress in pregnancy decreases adult longevity in offspring.
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Influenza epidemics occur once a year during the winter in temperate areas. Little is known about the similarities between epidemics at different locations. We have analyzed pneumonia and influenza deaths from 1972 to 1997 in the United States, France, and Australia to examine the correlation over space and time between the three countries. We found a high correlation in both areas between France and the United States (correlation in impact, Spearman's ρ = 0.76, p < 0.001, and test for synchrony in timing of epidemics, p < 0.001). We did not find a similar correlation between the United States and Australia or between France and Australia, when considering a systematic half-year lead or delay of influenza epidemics in Australia as compared with those in the United States or France. These results support a high correlation at the hemisphere level and suggest that the global interhemispheric circulation of epidemics follows an irregular pathway with recurrent changes in the leading hemisphere.
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With increased complexity in various global health challenges comes a need for increased precision and the adoption of more tailored health interventions. Building on precision public health, we propose precision global health (PGH), an approach that leverages life sciences, social sciences, and data sciences, augmented with artificial intelligence (AI), in order to identify transnational problems and deliver targeted and impactful interventions through integrated and participatory approaches. With more than four billion Internet users across the globe and the accelerating power of AI, PGH taps on our current augmented capacity to collect, integrate, analyse and visualise large volumes of data, both non-specific and specific to health. With the support of governments and donors, and together with international and non-governmental organisations, universities and research institutions can generate innovative solutions to improve health and wellbeing of the most vulnerable populations around the world. In line with the Sustainable Development Goals, we propose here a road map for the development and implementation of PGH.
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