Suchergebnisse

It is common practice that some or all animals in a group of animals, e. g. a herd, are tested for their health status by using a diagnostic test to investigate whether the herd is infected by a disease. Several obstacles complicate the estimation of herd prevalence on the basis of test results of the animals. First, diagnostic tests are often imperfect, resulting in a misclassification of the animal's disease status. It is well known how to correct the animal's apparent prevalence by using the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of the animal test, but the effects on herd prevalence are less clear. Second, in practice, a herd is often defined as positive when at least one sampled animal tested positively. This definition is ambiguous and is also different from the herd prevalence that is based on having at least one diseased animal in the herd. The paper provides a discussion of these aspects and proposes a method to estimate the true herd prevalence on the basis of the health status of ( all or a sample of) animals within a herd corrected for the sensitivity and specificity of the individual test, the number of animals that are tested in the herd and the uncertainty of the diagnostic test characteristics. ; We thank the referees for their valuable suggestions that have led to an improved version of the manuscript. This work was supported by the Interuniversity Attraction Pole research network P6/03 of the Belgian Government (Belgian Science Policy) and Research Foundation Flanders.

Nontyphoidal salmonellosis is the second most frequently reported zoonotic disease in the European Union (EU) and is considered to be a major threat to human health worldwide. The most reported Salmonella serovar in the EU is S. Enteritidis, mainly associated with egg contamination, followed by S. Typhimurium, with the latter being the most predominant serovar isolated from pork. These findings suggest that reducing the Salmonella contamination in the pork production might be a good strategy to prevent and control human salmonellosis in the EU. Recently, a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) has been developed to assess the risks for human salmonellosis due to home consumption of fresh minced pork meat in Belgium.(1) The newly developed risk model is called the METZOON model. In the current study, the METZOON model was used to evaluate the effectiveness of different hypothetical Salmonella mitigation strategies implemented at different stages of the minced pork production and consumption chain by means of a scenario analysis. To efficiently evaluate the mitigation strategies, model results were obtained by running simulations using the randomized complete block design. The effectiveness of a mitigation strategy is expressed using point and interval estimates of the effect size for dependent observations, expressed as the standardized difference in population means. The results indicate that the most effective strategies are taken during the slaughter processes of polishing, evisceration, and chilling, and during postprocessing, whereas interventions in the primary production and at the beginning of the slaughter process seem to have only a limited effect. Improving consumer awareness is found to be effective as well. ; This study was funded by the Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment (contract R-04/3-METZOON) "Development of a methodology for quantitative assessment of zoonotic risks in Belgium applied to the 'Salmonella in pork' model." Partners in the METZOON research consortium are the Veterinary and Agrochemical Research Centre (VAR), the Faculties of Veterinary Medicine of both Liege and Ghent University, the Institute for Agricultural and Fisheries Research (ILVO), the Scientific Institute for Public Health, and the Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and Statistical Bioinformatics (I-BioStat) of Hasselt University. This research was conducted while the first author was at Hasselt University.

This document provides guidance on the strategy and methodologies followed by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) to consult on its scientific outputs with the objective of increasing transparency, visibility and openness of the scientific risk assessment. This initiative is framed within a larger activity devoted to the continuous improvement of the EFSA Quality Management System, a key component of the on‐going consolidation of its excellence and independency.
The document illustrates all the relevant aspects to be taken into account when running a consultation: the motivation and scope of a consultation; the definition of the issues at stake in a given consultation; the identification of the relevant stakeholders to be involved in a given consultation; the selection of the most appropriate means of a consultation; and a description of how the comments received are addressed and followed up.
The concluding description of the different steps in EFSA's scientific assessment that may be open for consultation, provides interested stakeholders with an explanation on EFSA's procedure to ensure consistency and harmonisation of the consultation process.

The numeral unit spread assessment pedigree (NUSAP) system was implemented to evaluate the quality of input parameters in a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model forSalmonellaspp. in minced pork meat. The input parameters were grouped according to four successive exposure pathways: (1) primary production (2) transport, holding, and slaughterhouse, (3) postprocessing, distribution, and storage, and (4) preparation and consumption. An inventory of 101 potential input parameters was used for building the QMRA model. The characteristics of each parameter were defined using a standardized procedure to assess (1) the source of information, (2) the sampling methodology and sample size, and (3) the distributional properties of the estimate. Each parameter was scored by a panel of experts using a pedigree matrix containing four criteria (proxy, empirical basis, method, and validation) to assess the quality, and this was graphically represented by means of kite diagrams. The parameters obtained significantly lower scores for the validation criterion as compared with the other criteria. Overall strengths of parameters related to the primary production module were significantly stronger compared to the other modules (the transport, holding, and slaughterhouse module, the processing, distribution, and storage module, and the preparation and consumption module). The pedigree assessment contributed to select 20 parameters, which were subsequently introduced in the QMRA model. The NUSAP methodology and kite diagrams are objective tools to discuss and visualize the quality of the parameters in a structured way. These two tools can be used in the selection procedure of input parameters for a QMRA, and can lead to a more transparent quality assurance in the QMRA.

A quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) according to the Codex Alimentarius Principles is conducted to evaluate the risk of human salmonellosis through household consumption of fresh minced pork meat in Belgium. The quantitative exposure assessment is carried out by building a modular risk model, called the METZOON‐model, which covers the pork production from farm to fork. In the METZOON‐model, the food production pathway is split up in six consecutive modules: (1) primary production, (2) transport and lairage, (3) slaughterhouse, (4) postprocessing, (5) distribution and storage, and (6) preparation and consumption. All the modules are developed to resemble as closely as possible the Belgian situation, making use of the available national data. Several statistical refinements and improved modeling techniques are proposed. The model produces highly realistic results. The baseline predicted number of annual salmonellosis cases is 20,513 (SD 9061.45). The risk is estimated higher for the susceptible population (estimate 4.713 × 10−5; SD 1.466 × 10−5) compared to the normal population (estimate 7.704 × 10−6; SD 5.414 × 10−6) and is mainly due to undercooking and to a smaller extent to cross‐contamination in the kitchen via cook's hands.

Avian influenza (AI) is a viral infectious disease that affects all species of domestic and wild birds. The viruses causing this disease can be of high (HPAI) or low (LPAI) pathogenicity and represent a continuous threat to poultry in Europe. Council Directive 2005/94/EC requests EU Member States (MSs) to carry out surveillance in poultry and wild birds and notify the results to the responsible authority. Therefore, MSs and Switzerland have implemented surveillance programmes to yearly monitor incursions of AI viruses in poultry and wild birds. EFSA received a mandate from the European Commission, to collate, validate, analyse and summarise in an annual report the data resulting from the avian influenza surveillance programmes. This is the first report produced under this mandate summarising the results of the surveillance activities carried out in poultry and wild birds in 2018. Overall 18,596 poultry establishments were sampled, of which 43 were seropositive for H5 AI and two for H7 AI. Seropositive establishments were found in 11 MSs, with the highest percentage of seropositive establishments being found in waterfowl gamebird, and geese and duck breeding establishments. A total of 9,145 dead/moribund wild birds were sampled, with 163 birds testing positive to HPAI virus H5N6. The infected birds were reported by eight MSs and were mostly found between January and April 2018. In this report, the wild bird species affected with HPAI are described and the strategy of targeted sampling is assessed. The crude odds ratio of HPAI detection as a function of the target species (species belonging to the list of target species versus species not belonging to the target list) is presented. The surveillance findings for poultry and wild birds for 2018 are also discussed in relation to findings from previous years and current knowledge on the epidemiology of AI in Europe.

Avian influenza (AI) is a viral infectious disease that affects all species of domestic and wild birds. The viruses causing this disease can be of high (HPAI) or low (LPAI) pathogenicity and represent a continuous threat to poultry in Europe. Council Directive 2005/94/EC requests EU Member States (MSs) to carry out surveillance in poultry and wild birds and notify the results to the responsible authority. Therefore, MSs and Switzerland have implemented surveillance programmes to yearly monitor incursions of AI viruses in poultry and wild birds. EFSA received a mandate from the European Commission, to collate, validate, analyse and summarise in an annual report the data resulting from the avian influenza surveillance programmes. This is the first report produced under this mandate summarising the results of the surveillance activities carried out in poultry and wild birds in 2018. Overall 18,596 poultry establishments were sampled, of which 43 were seropositive for H5 AI and two for H7 AI. Seropositive establishments were found in 11 MSs, with the highest percentage of seropositive establishments being found in waterfowl gamebird, and geese and duck breeding establishments. A total of 9,145 dead/moribund wild birds were sampled, with 163 birds testing positive to HPAI virus H5N6. The infected birds were reported by eight MSs and were mostly found between January and April 2018. In this report, the wild bird species affected with HPAI are described and the strategy of targeted sampling is assessed. The crude odds ratio of HPAI detection as a function of the target species (species belonging to the list of target species versus species not belonging to the target list) is presented. The surveillance findings for poultry and wild birds for 2018 are also discussed in relation to findings from previous years and current knowledge on the epidemiology of AI in Europe.