Suchergebnisse

Policy harmonized (PH) approach allows for the quantitative assessment of the impact of various elements of EU CAP direct support schemes, where the production effects of direct payments are accounted through reaction prices formed by producer price and policy price add-ons. Using the AGMEMOD model the impacts of two possible EU agricultural policy scenarios upon beef production have been analysed – full decoupling with a switch from historical to regional Single Payment scheme or alternatively with re-distribution of country direct payment envelopes via introduction of EU-wide flat area payment. The PH approach, by systematizing and harmonizing the management and use of policy data, ensures that projected differential policy impacts arising from changes in common EU policies reflect the likely actual differential impact as opposed to differences in how "common" policies are implemented within analytical models. In the second section of the paper the AGMEMOD model's structure is explained. The policy harmonized evaluation method is presented in the third section. Results from an application of the PH approach are presented and discussed in the paper's penultimate section, while section 5 concludes.

Policy harmonized (PH) approach allows for the quantitative assessment of the impact of various elements of EU CAP direct support schemes, where the production effects of direct payments are accounted through reaction prices formed by producer price and policy price add-ons. Using the AGMEMOD model the impacts of two possible EU agricultural policy scenarios upon beef production have been analysed – full decoupling with a switch from historical to regional Single Payment scheme or alternatively with re-distribution of country direct payment envelopes via introduction of EU-wide flat area payment. The PH approach, by systematizing and harmonizing the management and use of policy data, ensures that projected differential policy impacts arising from changes in common EU policies reflect the likely actual differential impact as opposed to differences in how "common" policies are implemented within analytical models. In the second section of the paper the AGMEMOD model's structure is explained. The policy harmonized evaluation method is presented in the third section. Results from an application of the PH approach are presented and discussed in the paper's penultimate section, while section 5 concludes.

Policy, administration and industry need medium-term projections of the expected developments in the agri-food markets for their decision-making processes. The EU Commission presents such projections for the EU as a whole in December of each year. Those projections and their assumptions regarding policy and macroeconomic developments are depicted to the level of individual EU Member States with the exception of Luxembourg, which is included in the figures of Belgium, by applying the partial equilibrium model AGMEMOD. The working paper briefly describes the approach to establish projections for the EU Member States. The projections cover the markets of main agricultural products, in particular for cereals and oilseeds (rapeseed and sunflower seed), livestock (cattle, pigs, goats and sheep), meat (beef, pork, and poultry), milk and dairy products (drinking milk, butter, cheese, skimmed milk powder, whole milk and semiskimmed milk powder). The outcomes comprise items like areas, livestock numbers, yields, production, trade and use, as well as prices. The individual projection results are displayed in tables.

Policy, administration and industry need medium-term projections of the expected developments in the agri-food markets for their decision-making processes. The EU Commission presents such projections for the EU as a whole in December of each year. Those projections and their assumptions regarding policy and macroeconomic developments are depicted to the level of individual EU Member States with the exception of Luxembourg, which is included in the figures of Belgium, by applying the partial equilibrium model AGMEMOD. The working paper briefly describes the approach to establish projections for the EU Member States. The projections cover the markets of main agricultural products, in particular for cereals and oilseeds (rapeseed and sunflower seed), livestock (cattle, pigs, goats and sheep), meat (beef, pork, and poultry), milk and dairy products (drinking milk, butter, cheese, skimmed milk powder, whole milk and semi-skimmed milk powder). The outcomes comprise items like areas, livestock numbers, yields, production, trade and use, as well as prices. The individual projection results are displayed in tables. ; Politik, Administration und Wirtschaft benötigen für ihre Entscheidungen mittelfristige Projektionen über die zu erwartenden Entwicklungen auf den Märkten der Agrar- und Ernährungswirtschaft. Die EU-Kommission legt solche Projektionen für die EU als Ganzes im Dezember jedes Jahres vor. Diese Projektionen und ihre Annahmen bezüglich politischer Maßnahmen und makroökonomischer Entwicklungen werden mit Hilfe des partiellen Modellsystems AGMEMOD auf die einzelnen EU-Mitgliedsstaaten mit der Ausnahme von Luxemburg, das mit Belgien regional zusammengefasst wird, herunter gebrochen. Das Working Paper beschreibt kurz den Ansatz, wie die Projektionen für die Mitgliedsstaaten erstellt werden. Die Projektionen umfassen die Märkte für wichtige Agrarprodukte, und zwar insbesondere für Getreide und Ölsaaten (Raps- und Sonnenblumensaat), für Vieh (Rinder, Schweine, Ziegen und Schafe), Fleisch (Rind-, Schweine- und Geflügelfleisch), Milch und Milchprodukte (Trinkmilch, Butter, Käse, Magermilchpulver, Vollmilch und teilentrahmtes Milchpulver) und decken Anbauflächen, Tierbestände, Produktion, Handel und Verwendung sowie Preise ab. Die einzelnen Projektionsergebnisse werden in tabellarischer Form aufbereitet dargestellt.

This technical note provides the detailed projection results of the study "Modelling and Analysis of the European Milk and Dairy Market".

This report is based on the outcome of a study carried out by the AGMEMOD Consortium under the management of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI), in cooperation with the European Commission's Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS). The report provides a quantitative assessment of possible implications of a dairy policy reform and other policy adjustments on the milk and dairy market as well as on other agricultural markets in the EU-27, EU-15, EU-12, the individual Member States and their regional groupings using the AGMEMOD model.

This summary report is based on the outcome of a study carried out by the AGMEMOD Partnership under the management of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI, in the Netherlands), in cooperation with the Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) to generate projections for the main agricultural commodity markets for each year from 2005 until 2015. The report gives a general overview of the modelling approach, the description and implementation of the baseline, further CAP reform and exchange rate change scenarios. It outlines the main results for the aggregates EU-10, EU-15, EU-25 and EU-27, focusing in particular on the features implemented in this study, and addresses issues that need further attention. Detailed documentation on the AGMEMOD modelling approach, along with the outcome of the study, is published in five reports in the JRC-IPTS technical paper series under the heading "Impact analysis of Common Agricultural Policy reform on the main agricultural commodities".

This report is based on the outcome of a study carried out by the AGMEMOD Partnership under the management of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI, the Netherlands), in cooperation with the Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) to generate yearly projections for the main agricultural commodity markets from 2005 until 2015. This report describes the modelling techniques used by the AGMEMOD Partnership, with emphasis on new commodities modelled and policy modelling approaches. Detailed documentation on the AGMEMOD modelling approach, along with the outcome of the study, is published in five reports in the JRC-IPTS Scientific and Technical Report Series under the heading "Impact analysis of Common Agricultural Policy reform on the main agricultural commodities"

This report is based on a study carried out by the AGMEMOD Partnership under the management of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI, in the Netherlands), in cooperation with the Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) to generate projections for the main agricultural commodity markets for each year from 2005 until 2015. The report outlines the results of the baseline projections of agricultural commodity markets, further CAP reform scenario impact analyses and exchange rate change sensitivity analyses for each EU-25 Member State (except Malta and Cyprus). For Bulgaria and Romania enlargement and non-enlargement scenarios are analysed. Detailed documentation on the AGMEMOD modelling approach, along with the outcome of the study, is published in five reports in the JRC-IPTS technical paper series under the heading "Impact analysis of Common Agricultural Policy reform on the main agricultural commodities".