The South African government is evaluating the economy's performance over its first decade in power. This period can be characterised by a 'double' liberalisation: democratisation of the political process going hand in hand with liberalisation of the economy. This article provides a broad overview of the macroeconomic aspects of this liberalisation. (Dev South Afr/DÜI)
The paper reports on the construction and testing of a Standard International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) computable general equilibrium model for South Africa. A 1998 social accounting matrix (SAM) for South Africa is compiled using national accounts information and recently released supply-use tables. By updating to a recent year, and by distinguishing between producers and commodities, this SAM is an improvement on the existing SAM databases for South Africa. Furthermore, this SAM is made consistent with the requirements of IFPRI's standard comparative static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. This model is then used to simulate the economy-wide impact of a range of hypothetical policy levers, including: increased government spending; the elimination of tariff barriers; and an improvement in total factor productivity. Results indicate that assumptions made regarding the mechanisms of macroeconomic adjustment are important in determining the expected impacts of these policies. Firstly, despite mixed results concerning changes in household income distribution, the impact of expansionary fiscal policy appears to be growth enhancing, with the Keynesian style adjustment mechanism producing the most positive results. Secondly, a complete abolition of import tariffs also appears to generate increases in gross domestic product, with negative and positive consequences for aggregate manufacturing and services respectively. Finally, an increase in total factor productivity is growth enhancing, with the most positive results derived under neoclassical assumptions of the macroeconomic adjustment mechanisms. These simulations are meant to demonstrate the usefulness for economy-wide policy modelling and the paper concludes by highlighting areas of policy analysis that might benefit from more detailed applications with this framework." -- Author's Abstract. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1 ; TMD
This paper documents the construction of a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Zimbabwe in 2013. The SAM was built using National Accounts data from the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZIMSTAT), including balance of payment data, government finance data, and highly aggregated industry-level production accounts. Detailed data on industry and service sectors were obtained from ZIMSTAT surveys. For some activities, unpublished but recent supply and use data on disaggregated industries were combined with data from older sources. These sources include a 2011/12 ZIMSTAT household survey, trade data, the Central Government Budget, and output and price data from private farming organizations. The SAM provides a detailed representation of Zimbabwe's economy with 36 activities and 48 commodities. The SAM disaggregates labour into skilled and unskilled labour and separates households into rural and urban households. Despite shortcomings in the underlying data, it is hoped that this initial attempt at constructing a SAM representing the economy of Zimbabwe after land reform will stimulate further work aimed at improving it.
ABSTRACTExtreme weather events such as droughts and floods have potentially damaging implications for developing countries. Previous studies have estimated economic losses during hypothetical or single historical events, and have relied on historical production data rather than explicitly modeling climate. However, effective mitigation strategies require knowledge of the full distribution of weather events and their isolated effects on economic outcomes. We combine stochastic hydrometeorological crop-loss models with a regionalized computable general equilibrium model to estimate losses for the full distribution of possible weather events in Malawi. Results indicate that, based on repeated sampling from historical events, at least 1.7 per cent of Malawi's gross domestic product (GDP) is lost each year due to the combined effects of droughts and floods. Smaller-scale farmers in the southern region of the country are worst affected. However, poverty among urban and nonfarm households also increases due to national food shortages and higher domestic prices.
This paper documents a 2015 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Mozambique. The SAM is built using unpublished Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE) industry-level production accounts, commodity-level supply-demand balances and a supply matrix, together with national accounts, National Directorate of Planning and Budget (DNPO) government statistics and IMF balance of payment statistics (all for the year 2015), INE household and labour market survey data for 2014-15 and a use matrix from a 2007 SAM for Mozambique. It provides a detailed representation of the Mozambican economy and identifies 55 activities and commodities. Labour is disaggregated by education attainment level and household income and expenditure by per capita expenditure quintiles both for urban and rural areas. The SAM features production for home consumption as reported in the unpublished INE accounts and the INE household survey data and also presents government, investment, and foreign accounts. The SAM is a useful database for conducting economy-wide impact assessments, including multiplier analysis and computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling.
