Suchergebnisse

The headship rates method (HRM) of household projections based on the share
of household heads in the total population of the same demographic
characteristics (age, sex, nationality, marital status, etc.) is the most
commonly used method, especially by statistical institutes and planning
institutions. The specific rates of household heads by age are calculated by
dividing the number of household holders of a certain age with the total
number of residents of the appropriate age. The future number of households
is then simply projected on the basis of population projections by age and
assumptions about the future changes of HR. The HRM is based on the
projection of the future age structure of the population. In that sense, the
choice of methods of population projection, as well as the method of
projecting HR-s have determining impact on the outcome of household
projections. Given the methodological inconsistency typical for official
population projections in Serbia and significant differences in addressing
uncertainty of the future population change between deterministic and
probabilistic approach in making population projections, the decision to use
a probabilistic projection of the population of Serbia as the basis for
calculating the future number of house-holds and their structure according to
the age of the household head proved to be a logical choice. However, as the
basic aim of this article is to show the simple method of household
projections, the above-mentioned stochastic projection is used in utterly
deterministic manner. The median of the prediction interval of the population
distributed across age is interpreted as the most probable future, or as a
prognosis. The HR-s based on the age structure estimates and estimated number
of households by age of the household head from Household budget survey (HBS)
are used for the purpose of HR projecting so that the number of observations
would be large enough for calculating inclination parameters. The obtained
rates show a tendency to decline during the observed period, however, in
certain age categories, the rates are expressed by extreme values that are
certainly the result of random sampling in the HBS for the purpose of
analyzing consumption rather than analyzing the demographic characteristics
of households, and must be taken with a certain reserve. Although the
tendency of declining rates in most age categories is not unexpected, surely
the intensity of decline is unexpected. For this reason, in the formation of
the regression function, the extreme values of the rates are intentionally
excluded in the following way: after calculating the regression line
parameters, all the values of the rates that deviate from the regression
values by more than 20 per cent are rejected, after which the regression
parameters are recalculated. On the basis of the second calculation of the
regression line, parameters are obtained. However, as the obtained parameters
led to unexpectedly large HR changes according to the age of the household
head until the end of the projection period (2040), it was assumed that the
inclination parameter (b) would be reduced by 10 per cent annually compared
to the start year of the regression line. On the basis of the rates according
to the 2011 census data and the hypothesis on the slowdown of the observed
trends in the future, future HR-s are calculated. Furthermore, based on the
projected HR-s by age and future age structure of the population, the number
of households by the age of the household head for the projection years is
calculated. Based on the results of the projection, the total number of
households will be reduced on average by over 11 thousand households per
year. Also, compared to the 2011 census, it can be expected that the number
of households in all age groups will be reduced by the end of the projection
period, except in the category of household heads aged 65 and over that
stabilizes to around 900 thousand households by the end of the projection
period. Due to the decline in the number of households, the average household
size will be reduced by 0.18 members in 2040 compared to 2011, from 2.89 to
2.71. The largest number of households in Serbia are family households, the
share of single person households in the population under the age of 50 is
small, and the structural barriers to the establishment of an indigenous
household in persons under the age of 30 are significant. All of this makes
it difficult to withdraw parallels with other European populations in terms
of a possible path that the population and households in Serbia should follow
in the projection period. Some of the projections of households produced by
the HRM of a newer date for populations also found in the post-transition
demographic stage show that the age at which the household is based, the
mechanisms that affect the generation, change, and extinguishing of the
household, which are characteristic for each society, result in significantly
different values of age-specific HR-s. Of course, HR-s by age vary
considerably among different populations. It is obvious that the key
differences in Serbia in relation to other countries occur precisely at the
age when individuals base their own household. The existence of postponing
marriages and parenting that is recognized as key life-changing milestones in
the transition to adulthood and the founding of one?s own household, the
chronic lack of systematic housing policy towards young people and high youth
unemployment are the main causes of the late establishment of their own
household and the maintenance of low HR-s for persons under 30 years of age
in Serbia. Nevertheless, during the first decade of the 21st century, there
is a certain shift in the financial independence of young people, which gives
some hope that in the future HR-s in the category between the ages of 30 and
39 can be slightly increased, which is confirmed on the basis of the sample
of households from the HBS for the period 2006-2013. Namely, the tendency of
a slight increase in the value of the rate for persons aged between 30 and 39
years is certainly the result of an increase in the age at which the
household is based, which can be noticed on the basis of the reduction in
rates for persons under the age of 30. On the other hand, a certain decline
in the value of the rate characteristic for the households of the holders in
their middle age (between 40 and 64 years of age) has an explanation in the
increase in number and share of multi-family households in the period
1991-2011, especially in urban areas. During the 1990s, in the conditions of
a deep socio-economic crisis, with the continuation in the next decade during
the transition of the economic system, in conditions of significant poverty
and the phenomenon of the retraditionalization of partnership arrangements
within multi-family households, it is obvious that a significant number of
families in the middle of their life cycle lived in within parental
households whose carriers are aged 65 and over. In fact, as the increase in
the HR-s during the thirtieth year of age is the result of deprivation of
rates in younger persons, this is, by and large, a rise in rates for persons
aged 65 and over due to a reduction in rates among carriers aged between 40
and 64 years. The presented method of household projections is not
characterized by methodological sophistication, elegance and precision in
reflecting changes in the structure of households according to the family
composition and a detailed presentation of changes in the family status of
individuals, but it certainly represents an simple way of household
projecting according to the age distribution of carriers, the average size
and the number of households. It seems that this approach, based on the
stability of age-specific rates of household heads, without getting involved
in the field of sociology, is quite precise in the medium term, especially
given the simplicity in household projecting based on HRM.

Household Consumption Survey has been done according to current methodology following EUROSTAT suggestions since 2003. The structure of the data obtained with the household consumption diary gives us significant opportunities to investigate demographic features of consumers, i.e. households as observation units for researching preferences of consumers of different social-demographic population categories. Although the data published in HCS regard only the structure of households' consumption and households' income related both to territorial and urban-rural division of Serbia, there are possibilities for this data to be cross-analysed with different demographic, social and economic characteristic of subjects observed. Therefore, consumers' characteristics according to education, marital status, economic activity, profession, and above all according to sex and age can also be observed. As consumption structure is discussed, important notice is that the consumption has been looked at as the aggregation of each household member's consumption, where values of demographic characteristics refer to the head of that household. HCS provides a number of other possibilities for analysing demographic characteristics of population that are not in regard to consumption, such as continuous analysis of changes in marital or educational structure. .

One of the two key measures to encourage birth within the Law on Financial
Support to the Family with Children is salary compensation during parental
leave. The very nature of maternity leave as a financial measure (based on
the previous version of the Law) additionally contributed to the birth
postponement in the period of stable employment. Under the conditions of
high unemployment of young women, this measure seems to have deepened the
problem because women were waiting for permanent employment on the basis of
which they could obtain the right to maternity leave, young women often
postponed birth for many years, objectively reducing the chances of
conception. The new version of the Law formulates the specific conditions
for gaining the right to salary compensation in a different way, which will
almost certainly result in a much greater coverage by this measure. On the
other hand, the method of calculating the compensation base is such that the
average amount of compensation in relation to the previous version of the
Law could be lower, so it can be concluded that the legislator wanted to
achieve as much coverage as possible with a relatively similar amount of
budgetary allocations. These amendments to the Law could have a positive
effect through increased coverage and greater impact through creating a
pro-family climate in a country that supports the family. Secondly,
population groups that work on temporary and occasional jobs, and especially
young people engaged in short-term contracts (under six months), whose work
arrangements are often interrupted, will now be covered. Thirdly, the
formulated conditions in this manner will potentially allow faster
acquisition of the right to compensation at a lower age. Fourth, gaining
rights at a lower age will potentially influence the pace of fertility and
indirectly to the birth quantum. Regardless of the fact that by adopting the
latest version the Law is undoubtedly improved, there is still a huge space
for its significant improvement. As it was pointed out that the parental
leave can have more dimensions, and that the importance of its flexibility
and use by both parents is equally important for the decision to give birth,
and in particular for the decision on the number and time of higher order
births, it would be of great demographic significance for the system of
work-parenting convergement to harmonize with the postulates of modern
population policy and take into account positive experience of countries
with confirmed effect on fertility as soon as possible.

To explain the causes of the recent decrease in economic activity in Serbia
and ascertain the extent to which population aging has contributed to this
phenomenon, this paper uses the decomposition method to quantify two
different kinds of effects: composite and direct. Direct effects or rate
effects occur due to changes in the population?s behaviour, typically
brought on by a changed cultural or institutional context or changes in the
state of the labour market. Composite effects represent purely demographic
effects, arising due to age re-composition of the population. This paper
uses census data and the Prithwis Das Gupta decomposition method - widely
accepted as best practice for this type of research. The results have shown
that behavioural factors were twice as important as demographic factors in
explaining the decrease in the rate of economic activity seen in the most
recent inter-censal period.

Population policy measures address all fertile women in Serbia, and the aim
is to mobilize the largest number of women to give birth. Although strong
response is desirable, not all women react, or at least not to the same
extent, to the population policy measures which are financially based in
Serbia. In this paper our intention was to identify which categories of
fertile women could give greatest demographic benefit in the near future
considering current population policy measures. We assumed that age and
socioeconomic characteristics are the most relevant for the different
response of women. Considering past structural changes of women population,
and population projection results, we tried to define which categories of
fertile women can give the greatest demographic benefit to the increase of
birth level until 2041.

This paper examines the role which different demographic groups (youth,
persons of prime working age and older persons) have played in the overall
change of the labour force (reproduction), changes in the educational
attainment and changes in the distribution of occupations. This paper uses
the pseudo-cohort analysis and cross-sectoral data collected from the Labour
Force Survey. Main findings show that the educational attainment of new
entrants into the labour force was higher than that of retiring workers over
the time period of 2004-2014. The composition of occupational changes over
the decade confirmed what had been observed for the educational attainment of
the labour force. Young new entrants into strongly growing occupations (most
of which were highly skilled) by far outnumbered the retirees over the past
decade.