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"Strategic Voting Versus Sincere Voting" published on by Oxford University Press.

The 2013 Italian parliamentary election was characterized by the outstanding performance of the MoVimento Cinque Stelle, which in its first participation in a general election obtained a remarkable 25% of the national vote. Where did these votes come from? Furthermore, is it possible to observe different electoral dynamics across geographical areas of Italy? In order to address these questions, we first estimate the flow of votes between the 2008 and 2013 general elections by applying an ecological inference method – the Goodman model – to the entire Italian voting population, and then we take a closer look at the differences in the four geopolitical areas in which Italy is traditionally divided. We find that the extraordinary performance of the MoVimento 5 Stelle was largely due to its capacity of attracting similar amounts of former Partito Democratico and Popolo della Libertà supporters, as well as a considerable amount of voters from their traditional allies: Lega Nord and Italia dei Valori. The MoVimento 5 Stelle was also able to mobilize previous non-voters. We shed light on the territorial features of these dynamics.

Several scholars have sought to elucidate voting strategies in proportional representation (PR) systems. The argument is that the existence of coalition governments forces voters to consider potential alliances and to vote in order to maximize their chances of influencing the outcome. In this paper, we argue that this vision is incomplete as PR, just as single-member district plurality, also creates incentives for voters to desert parties that have little chances of obtaining a seat in their district. We validate this theoretical claim using two different surveys conducted during the 2014 Belgian federal and regional elections. Our results show that both government and district viability have a substantial and distinct effect on vote choice.

New-Flemish Alliance (N-VA) burst on the scene barely a decade ago and is now Belgium's largest political party. One explanation for this success is that N-VA is not brand new but rose from the ashes of a dissolved party. How exactly should we differentiate between new and old parties? We use Barnea and Rahat's (2011) analytical framework to assess dimensions of N-VA's newness and capture the party at two stages – start-up and more developed. This shows that N-VA is a successor party, building on its predecessor's ideology and programme, its electorate, activists and organization. However, we also find indicators that the party actively renewed in terms of ideology and party organization. The empirical evidence illustrates that newness of political parties should be conceived of as multi-dimensional, which allows for a more subtle approach to questions about the origin and varying success of new political parties.

This paper argues that, as other 'new' parties, at least part of the explanation for the N-VA's success lies in the history preceding its birth; agency of the new party itself is another part of the explanation. Therefore, this paper demonstrates that the N-VA is what Arter has called a successor party, i.e. a party that has managed to become a new entity built on the remnants of a now defunct party organisation. In order to do so, we look at three main aspects: the characteristics of the electorate, the content of the programme, and the structure of the party organisation. On these three accounts, the N-VA can be regarded as a successor party that successfully built on an existing organisation yet managed to dissociate from its predecessor. ; info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished