Suchergebnisse

The Paris Agreement's aspirational 1.5 degree temperature target has given further impetus to efforts to imagine (and seek to govern) transformative and uncertain climate futures. This brings to the fore multiple challenges in the search for anticipatory governance and the role herein for climate foresight. Foresight entails processes to envision challenging futures and question limiting assumptions about what futures are possible, but these processes also impact upon present-day politics. While foresight-related activities are proliferating in sustainability research and planning, critical social science scrutiny of such processes remains minimal. Two key gaps in understanding are: (a) the link between foresight, planning and policy change; and (b) the very prospects of relying on foresight in the present to steer largely unknowable futures. In addressing these gaps, we review the field of climate foresight research here, situating it within a broader interdisciplinary body of literature relating to anticipation and anticipatory governance. In doing so, we identify a conceptual lens through which to analyze the political implications of foresight processes, and apply it to the case of two ongoing foresight initiatives. We conclude with noting the urgent need for further research on the role of foresight within anticipatory climate governance in a post-Paris era.

In this paper, we argue that a key component of futures literacy is reflexivity regarding different attitudes toward the future. Various intellectual traditions and futures practices make epistemologically distinct claims about the future and its manifestations in the present. Through their different outlooks on analyzing, understanding, and influencing the future, these diverse approaches represent fundamentally different attitudes to what it means to meaningfully engage with the future. Because of this diversity of attitudes toward the future, and the different possible modes of engagement with the future, futures literacy is more complex than it appears at first glance. Looking at recent developments in futures literature, we build on four epistemologically and ontologically distinct approaches to the problem of the future. We argue that being futures literate depends on reflexivity about these different engagements with the future, and what these different approaches can offer future-oriented action respectively. Such reflexivity entails being reflexive about how different approaches to the problem of the future arise, as well as about the underlying power structures. We also investigate possibilities to cultivate this futures reflexivity and conclude with a set of questions to guide future research in deepening reflexivity as a key element of futures literacy.

Chapter 1. Introduction to the participatory foresight toolbox -- Chapter 2. Why citizen participation in foresight?-. Chapter 3. Who to involve in participatory foresight? -- Chapter 4. Which foresight methods to use for participatory foresight? -- Chapter 5. How to use participatory foresight methods? -- Chapter 6. Conclusions: applying the toolbox to involve citizens in participatory foresight in practice.

Although many local authorities underline the important role of citizens in climate adaptation, many experience difficulties with organizing citizen participation in a way that is meaningful to both citizens and policymakers. Climate change is for many simply not a top priority. Besides, the future is often rather abstract to people, citizens in particular. We argue that practical tools are needed to help citizens structure the process of thinking about and designing the future of their living environment under the impacts of climate change. The toolbox Towards a climate-resilient future together offers practical foresight methods and tools for organizing citizen participation in the process of building climate-resilient futures. It provides an overview of the state the art of and hands-on guidance for executing participatory foresight methods and showcases some of the lessons learned from several international research programs on citizen engagement. In doing so, the toolbox can assist practitioners, students and academics concerned with the question of how local communities in urban and rural areas could adapt to climate change impacts and become more resilient in the future. It is suitable for readers without any experience in citizen participation and/or foresight, while more experienced readers will find innovative combinations of methods and tools that are unique within the field of citizen participation and foresight.

The global environmental change that characterizes the Anthropocene poses a threat to food systems. Cities increasingly serve as the spaces where civil society, private actors, and local governments come together to strategize toward more sustainable food futures and experiment with new forms of food governance. However, much of the futures literature in the context of sustainability focuses on large-scale, global scenarios. These are important pieces of knowledge, but they often do not effect a change in local perspectives and practices. In this paper we respond to the need for novel futures approaches to help urban coalitions of societal actors create pathways to sustainability transformations. We investigate how existing examples of good practices, or "seeds," can be used to open up novel, desirable, bottom-up futures in the case study of Kyoto (Japan). Innovative combinations of methodologies (visioning, back-casting, simulation games) are used and assessed in order to create multiple ways of experimenting and engaging with food system futures. Our results consist of a pluriform pathway to a sustainable Kyoto food system. Each method brings in its unique pathway elements: visioning to formulate a desired end goal, back-casting to create a step-by-step action plan, and gaming to practice with the future. The combination of Kyoto-based "seeds" with initiatives from elsewhere and with a new food system governance model (a food policy council) resulted in participants learning about new food system practices, extending their networks, and support for actualizing a food policy council. We conclude that multimethod futures processes that combine existing practices and new modes of governance are a promising new way to outline various pathways for sustainability transformations. ; Peer Review