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Abstract Under future climates, leaf temperature (Tl) will be higher and more variable. This will affect plant carbon (C) balance because photosynthesis and respiration both respond to short-term (sub-daily) fluctuations in Tl and acclimate in the longer term (days to months). This study asks the question: to what extent can the potential and speed of photosynthetic acclimation buffer leaf C gain from rising and increasingly variable Tl? We quantified how increases in the mean and variability of growth temperature affect leaf performance (mean net CO2 assimilation rates, Anet; its variability; and time under near-optimal photosynthetic conditions), as mediated by thermal acclimation. To this aim, the probability distribution of Anet was obtained by combining a probabilistic description of short- and long-term changes in Tl with data on Anet responses to these changes, encompassing 75 genera and 111 species, including both C3 and C4 species. Our results show that: i) expected increases in Tl variability will decrease mean Anet and increase its variability, whereas the effects of higher mean Tl depend on species and initial Tl; and ii) acclimation reduces the effects of leaf warming, maintaining Anet at >80% of its maximum under most thermal regimes. This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Vico, G, Way, DA, Hurry, V, Manzoni, S. Can leaf net photosynthesis acclimate to rising and more variable temperatures? Plant Cell Environ. 2019; 42: 1913– 1928, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1111/pce.13525. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions. This article may not be enhanced, enriched or otherwise transformed into a derivative work, without express permission from Wiley or by statutory rights under applicable legislation. Copyright notices must not be removed, obscured or modified. The article must be linked to Wiley's version of record on Wiley Online Library and any embedding, ...

Large areas in the tropics and at mid-latitudes experience pronounced seasonality and inter-annual variability in rainfall and hence water availability. Despite the importance of these seasonally dry ecosystems (SDEs) for the global carbon cycling and in providing ecosystem services, a unifying ecohydrological framework to interpret the effects of climatic variability on SDEs is still lacking. A synthesis of existing data about plant functional adaptations in SDEs, covering some 400 species, shows that leaf phenological variations, rather than physiological traits, provide the dominant control on plant-water-carbon interactions. Motivated by this result, the combined implications of leaf phenology and climatic variability on plant water use strategies are here explored with a minimalist model of the coupled soil water and plant carbon balances. The analyses are extended to five locations with different hydroclimatic forcing, spanning seasonally dry tropical climates (without temperature seasonality) and Mediterranean climates (exhibiting out of phase seasonal patterns of rainfall and temperature). The most beneficial leaf phenology in terms of carbon uptake depends on the climatic regime: evergreen species are favoured by short dry seasons or access to persistent water stores, whereas high inter-annual variability of rainy season duration favours the coexistence of multiple drought-deciduous phenological strategies. We conclude that drought-deciduousness may provide a competitive advantage in face of predicted declines in rainfall totals, while reduced seasonality and access to deep water stores may favour evergreen species. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

© 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 8 4 June 2015 10.1002/eco.1533 Research Article Research Articles This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA. Large areas in the tropics and at mid-latitudes experience pronounced seasonality and inter-annual variability in rainfall and hence water availability. Despite the importance of these seasonally dry ecosystems (SDEs) for the global carbon cycling and in providing ecosystem services, a unifying ecohydrological framework to interpret the effects of climatic variability on SDEs is still lacking. A synthesis of existing data about plant functional adaptations in SDEs, covering some 400 species, shows that leaf phenological variations, rather than physiological traits, provide the dominant control on plant-water-carbon interactions. Motivated by this result, the combined implications of leaf phenology and climatic variability on plant water use strategies are here explored with a minimalist model of the coupled soil water and plant carbon balances. The analyses are extended to five locations with different hydroclimatic forcing, spanning seasonally dry tropical climates (without temperature seasonality) and Mediterranean climates (exhibiting out of phase seasonal patterns of rainfall and temperature). The most beneficial leaf phenology in terms of carbon uptake depends on the climatic regime: evergreen species are favoured by short dry seasons or access to persistent water stores, whereas high inter-annual variability of rainy season duration favours the coexistence of multiple drought-deciduous phenological strategies. We conclude that drought-deciduousness may provide a competitive advantage in face of predicted declines in rainfall totals, while reduced seasonality and access to deep water stores may favour evergreen species. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.