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AbstractThis paper investigates hysteresis in South Africa's unemployment. First, we test the presence of hysteresis in unemployment using traditional stationarity tests and non‐linear transformation methods to identify two further characteristics of hysteresis, namely, remanence and selective memory. In the second part of the paper, we estimate a simple insider–outsider model using a Bayesian vector autoregression methodology to identify the shocks driving unemployment dynamics. The main finding is that mark‐up shocks and negative productivity shocks are the main drivers of unemployment, with demand shocks playing a secondary role. Nominal wages are not responsive to real shocks and are an important component of inflation. These results point to the difficulty of absorbing the current level of unemployment without a significant increase in the flexibility of goods and labour markets. At the same time, the evidence suggests that, if reforms are being implemented, demand policies can play a significant role in improving employment and growth, reversing the structural unemployment evident in the data.

In both Europe and the United States, interest rates have been declining for more than fifteen years. For much of this period, real interest rates have been negative and they are expected to remain negative for at least another decade. The literature associates this decline in interest rates with a similarly protracted decline in productivity. But the decline in productivity appears paradoxical given major technological advances. The decline in the price of capital is underpinned by the factors that have caused a decline in demand for capital, as well as a relative increase in its supply. On the supply side, aging and an increase in overall macroeconomic risk since the financial crisis have both led to increased savings. On the demand side, the increase in the importance of intangible capital in production has reduced the demand for physical capital. Nevertheless, for the US, the literature has identified the increase in market concentration as the biggest factor responsible for the reduction in the overall demand for capital. Digital innovation has led to the creation of champion firms that have captured big market shares and have been able to prevent others from entering not only the US market, but markets globally. This has dampened investment. Europe is affected by US digital dominance, but other factors, including aging and increased risk, are more prominent in sustaining the downward pressure on interest rates. In particular, the lack of risk capital, in the context of capital markets, contributes to this downward pressure in the EU. As the knowledge economy relies increasingly on intangible capital, a bank-based system that requires collateral is not well suited to finance investments. A lack of suitable finance will remain an important factor in the downward pressure on interest rates. The structural factors behind the downward pressure on interest rates imply that macroeconomic policy will have a reduced role in managing aggregate demand. Monetary policy in the euro area will be more about preventing financial fragmentation and less about stimulating demand. Equally, fiscal policy will have more of a supporting rather than stimulating role. Tackling the structural decline in market dynamism and therefore in real rates will require structural policies to reduce market power globally and ensure the creation of capital markets in the EU.

Most economists argue that transparency in monetary policy is desirable because it helps the private sector make better informed decisions. They also argue that a lack of transparency has been a key problem in Europe's monetary policy. Using standard models—where there are also opportunities to use fiscal policy—we show that a lack of transparency will have very different effects depending on whether it represents a lack of political transparency or a lack of economic (or information) transparency. The former allows the central bank to create and exploit a 'strategic' reputation to its own advantage. The latter does not. Thus, political transparency helps us understand how monetary policy decisions are made. But economic transparency would reveal what information went into those decisions.

This paper analyses the macroeconomic effect of legislated personal income tax changes in South Africa over the 1996-2019 period. We identify personal income tax shocks using a narrative approach and incorporate these shocks in a proxySVAR model. Our analysis shows that permanent changes in personal income taxes have a larger and significant effect on output through both the investment and consumption channels. We also find that personal tax cuts have a persistent effect on output through the investment channel in the 1996-2010 sub-sample. ; Note: On 22 November 2021, missing acknowledgements were added.

The literature argues that the benefits of an independent central bank accrue at no cost to the real side. In this paper, we argue that the lack of correlation between monetary autonomy & output variability is due to the proactive role of fiscal policy when faced with rigid monetary objectives. Few of the attempts to measure these correlations actually allow for a changing fiscal role. Yet, when an independent authority handles monetary policy, fiscal & wage/social protection policies remain instruments in the hands of elected governments. We find that, so long as the two authorities pursue their goals independently of each other, a conflict arises that becomes stronger as preferences diverge. We also find that the establishment of a conservative central bank encourages more divergent preferences among the public (as reflected in the government that is elected). The election of more interventionist governments then makes it harder for either authority to reach its own preferred objectives, unless cooperation is possible. 1 Figure, 2 Appendixes, 38 References. [Copyright 2003 Elsevier B.V.]

AbstractThis paper analyses the relationship between trade liberalization and economic growth using a Schumpeterian framework of technological innovation and applies it to sector‐level South African data. The framework examines direct and indirect effects of trade liberalization on productivity growth. Indirect impacts operate through a differential impact of trade liberalization on firms conditional on their distance from the international technological frontier. Results confirm positive direct impacts of trade liberalization. Results confirm also that the greatest positive impact of trade liberalization will be on sectors that are close to the international technological frontier and that experienced a low level of product market competition before liberalization.