Suchergebnisse

The Harrod-Domar (H-D) growth model assumes a fixed capital-output ratio, signifying absence of substitutability between capital and labor, leading to a "knife-edge" problem wherein balanced growth of capital (fixed warranted rate) and labor (fixed natural rate) occurs only by accident, preventing the attainment of macroeconomic stability with full employment. The neoclassical Solow-Swan (S-S) growth model provides an elegant solution to the H-D problem by endogenizing the warranted rate via the saving-investment relation, wherein capital growth is a function of a fully adjusting income-capital ratio (inverse of the H-D capital-output ratio)— allowing for smooth substitutability between capital and labor while keeping the natural rate exogenously fixed. The S-S model implies a positive, albeit temporary output growth effect of a higher saving rate. The present paper extends the capital-labor ratio's influence onto the natural rate via effects on labor productivity through a modified Arrow learning by doing framework, and via labor participation through real wage adjustments. Thus, the positive output growth of a higher saving rate, although temporary in the short run as in the S-S model, is permanent in the long run through adjustments in both the warranted and natural rates—a generalization of the Solow-Swan model.

This paper develops and discusses an open-economy growth model in a modi!ed Arrow learning-by-doing framework, in which workers learn through experience on the job, thereby increasing their productivity. Applying optimal control to maximize the discounted stream of intertemporal consumption, the model yields domestic saving rates of 18-22 percent of GDP, which are feasible targets in developing and emerging market economies. Sustainable gross foreign debt is in the range of 39-50 percent of GDP. Saving, debt, and growth policies are suggested.

1. Strategies for financial reforms. 1.1. Financial liberalization: a review of major issues. 1.2. Experiences with different liberalization. 1.3. Summary and conclusions -- 2. Managing capital flows. 2.1. Introduction. 2.2. International private capital flows into South East Asia. 2.3. Macroeconomic effects. 2.4. Policy responses. 2.5. A proposed policy strategy. 2.6. Summary and conclusions -- 3. External debt, adjustment, and growth. 3.1. Introduction. 3.2. The formal framework. 3.3. Application to the Philippines. 3.4. Implications for fiscal policy and external debt management. 3.5. Summary and conclusions -- 4. Exports and economic development. 4.1. Introduction. 4.2. The growth model. 4.3. Optimal saving. 4.4. Summary and conclusions -- 5. Openness, human development, and fiscal policies. 5.1. Endogenous growth. 5.2. Optimal long-run growth. 5.3. The speed of adjustment toward equilibrium. 5.4. Summary and conclusions -- 6. Social and political factors in a model of endogenous economic growth and distribution: an application to the Philippines. 6.1. Introduction. 6.2. The theoretical framework. 6.3. The Philippine macroeconomic experience. 6.4. Summary and conclusions -- 7. Does monetary policy matter for long-run growth? 7.1. Introduction. 7.2. The modified model. 7.3. The effects of disinflation. 7.4. Optimal monetary policy and optimal long-run growth. 7.5. The speed of adjustment to long-run equilibrium.