This is the final version. Available on open access from the European Geosciences Union via the DOI in this record ; Data availability: All CMIP5 and CMIP6 output, including the respective GeoMIP simulations, is available via the Earth System Grid Federation (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/esgf-llnl/, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 2021) or by contacting the respective modeling groups responsible for the output. For CMIP6 output, see data citations in Table 1. ; Solar geoengineering has been receiving increased attention in recent years as a potential temporary solution to offset global warming. One method of approximating global-scale solar geoengineering in climate models is via solar reduction experiments. Two generations of models in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) have now simulated offsetting a quadrupling of the CO2 concentration with solar reduction. This simulation is idealized and designed to elicit large responses in the models. Here, we show that energetics, temperature, and hydrological cycle changes in this experiment are statistically indistinguishable between the two ensembles. Of the variables analyzed here, the only major differences involve highly parameterized and uncertain processes, such as cloud forcing or terrestrial net primary productivity. We conclude that despite numerous structural differences and uncertainties in models over the past two generations of models, including an increase in climate sensitivity in the latest generation of models, the models are consistent in their aggregate climate response to global solar dimming. ; National Science Foundation (NSF) ; Indiana University Environmental Resilience Institute ; Prepared for Environmental Change Grand Challenge initiative ; Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme ; DFG - Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft ; IPSL Climate Graduate School ; European Union Horizon 2020
30 pags., 11 figs., 5 tabs. ; We quantify the stratospheric injection of brominated very short-lived substances (VSLS) based on aircraft observations acquired in winter 2014 above the Tropical Western Pacific during the CONvective TRansport of Active Species in the Tropics (CONTRAST) and the Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment (ATTREX) campaigns. The overall contribution of VSLS to stratospheric bromine was determined to be 5.0 ± 2.1 ppt, in agreement with the 5 ± 3 ppt estimate provided in the 2014 World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Ozone Assessment report (WMO 2014), but with lower uncertainty. Measurements of organic bromine compounds, including VSLS, were analyzed using CFC-11 as a reference stratospheric tracer. From this analysis, 2.9 ± 0.6 ppt of bromine enters the stratosphere via organic source gas injection of VSLS. This value is two times the mean bromine content of VSLS measured at the tropical tropopause, for regions outside of the Tropical Western Pacific, summarized in WMO 2014. A photochemical box model, constrained to CONTRAST observations, was used to estimate inorganic bromine from measurements of BrO collected by two instruments. The analysis indicates that 2.1 ± 2.1 ppt of bromine enters the stratosphere via inorganic product gas injection. We also examine the representation of brominated VSLS within 14 global models that participated in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative. The representation of stratospheric bromine in these models generally lies within the range of our empirical estimate. Models that include explicit representations of VSLS compare better with bromine observations in the lower stratosphere than models that utilize longer-lived chemicals as a surrogate for VSLS. ; The CONTRAST field deployment was supported by the U.S. NSF, and the ATTREX field deployment was supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). P. A. W., R. J. S., T. P. C., J. M. N., and D. C. A. received support from NSF, NASA Atmospheric Composition Modeling and Analysis Program (ACMAP), and the NASA Modeling, Analysis, and Prediction (MAP). D. C. A. also received support from the NASA Upper Atmospheric Research Program. J. M. N. was also supported by the NASA Postdoctoral Program at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, administered by Universities Space Research Association under contract with NASA. R. V. acknowledges funding from NSF awards AGS‐1261740 and AGS‐1620530. CONTRAST data are publicly available at "http://data.eol.ucar.edu/master_list/?project= CONTRAST." ATTREX data are publicly available at "https://espoarchive.nasa.gov/archive/browse/attrex/id4/GHawk." The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) meteorological data are available at "https://doi.org/10.5065/D6M043C6." CCMI outputs from CESM1‐WACCM and CESM1‐CAM4Chem are archived by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) at "www.earthsystemgrid.org," and NCAR is sponsored by NSF. CCMI output from the EMAC‐L90MA‐SD simulation is available at "https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1204495." All other CCMI simulations are archived by the British Atmospheric Data Centre at "http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/". Output from CAM‐chem‐SD is available as "NCAR/ACD CAMChem 1 Degree Forecast" at "http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/contrast/model/CAMChem_NCAR_1deg/." WACCM and CAM‐Chem are components of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), which is also supported by NSF. Computing resources were provided by NCAR's Climate Simulation Laboratory, sponsored by NSF and other agencies. This research was enabled by the computational and storage resources of NCAR's Computational and Information System Laboratory (CISL). R. S. and K. A. S., with ACCESS‐CCM, acknowledge support from Australian Research Council's Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (CE110001028), the Australian Government's National Computational Merit Allocation Scheme (q90), and Australian Antarctic science grant program (FoRCES 4012). CCSRNIES research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (2‐1303 and 2‐1709) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan, and computations were performed on NEC‐SX9/A(ECO) computers at the CGER, NIES. The EMAC simulations have been performed at the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ) through support from the Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF). DKRZ and its scientific steering committee are gratefully acknowledged for providing the HPC and data archiving resources for the consortial project ESCiMo (Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling). The TOMCAT modeling was supported by NERC NCAS and the SISLAC project (NE/R001782/1), and the simulations were performed on the Archer and Leeds HPC Systems.
