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ABSTRACT Question of the future of Ukraine is globally important and requires answer before it is closed in order to be ready for final result. Ukrainian crisis has internal and external dimension. First part of the article analyzes the consequences of Euromaidan. Two years is a period of time, which makes possible some preliminary conclusions about the development of new Ukraine, and it can be said that political and economic system of the country is deteriorating. At the same time disappointment of the people about the course of development of the state is growing. Therefore theory of expectations and reality discrepancy can be applied to predict the future of today's political regime in Kiev. The conclusion is that next social explosion (revolution) in Ukraine is highly possible in a short-term, because unacceptable gap between expectations of Ukrainians and reality they live in has almost reached critical margin. Still situation in the country is strongly dependent on the position of two big external actors the West (the United States and the European Union) and Russia. On the one hand, they stabilize the conflict the West helps Ukrainian government to survive politically and economically and manages social and oligarchic protest potential in the state; Russia supports separatists of Donbass, but holds them from further military aggression, accentuating implementation of Minsk Agreement. On the other hand, Ukraine definitely is a hostage of "great geopolitical game" between Washington, Brussels and Moscow, and is not a subject, but object in it. Strategic perspective of the Ukrainian crisis will depend on Russia's ability to survive economically and make the West believe it is better to retreat in Ukraine; on the American "hawks" perception of this ability and on the damage they and the EU are ready to suffer from the Russian side. Supposed additional value of the article is that it tries to conceptualize (also theoretically) the current national and foreign situation of Ukraine and propose prognostic framework (the main variables) to predict its future

Today Moldova is not on the top of international political agenda, but it is im-portant both for the West and Russia in the context of their geopolitical competition. At the same time it is a competition of two integrative projects, which propose two different models of development – the European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union. For a long time it seemed that parliamentary "Alliance for European Integration" will be able to make Moldova a successful example of Europeanization, but finally it discredited European idea and Moldovan people after massive social protests elected pro-Russian Igor Dodon president of the country. Now it seems that he will eventually integrate Moldova to the Eurasian Economic Union, but to do this he has to solve the problem of parliament, which is controlled by his political opponents. Referendum is supposed to become a solution. Finally, potential additional advantage of I. Dodon is that the chal-lenge of Transnistria can also be overcome in connection to the Eurasian integration of Moldova, because Chisinau with the help of Kremlin will get unified state and Tiraspol – formal affiliation with Russia it dreams of. The story is not over yet, but Vladimir Putin's chances to win are good as never.

Today Moldova is not on the top of international political agenda, but it is im-portant both for the West and Russia in the context of their geopolitical competition. At the same time it is a competition of two integrative projects, which propose two different models of development – the European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union. For a long time it seemed that parliamentary "Alliance for European Integration" will be able to make Moldova a successful example of Europeanization, but finally it discredited European idea and Moldovan people after massive social protests elected pro-Russian Igor Dodon president of the country. Now it seems that he will eventually integrate Moldova to the Eurasian Economic Union, but to do this he has to solve the problem of parliament, which is controlled by his political opponents. Referendum is supposed to become a solution. Finally, potential additional advantage of I. Dodon is that the chal-lenge of Transnistria can also be overcome in connection to the Eurasian integration of Moldova, because Chisinau with the help of Kremlin will get unified state and Tiraspol – formal affiliation with Russia it dreams of. The story is not over yet, but Vladimir Putin's chances to win are good as never.

Creation of the Territorial Defense System (TDS) in Poland is a very serious step in military, political and economic terms. Therefore, it is important to understand if this decision is an effective response to Russian threat or a politically motivated populist mistake. Article explains, why military conflict between NATO and Russia is not realistic. At the same time, some interest groups in American elite (mainly, the so called "hawks") are interested in construction of the "geopolitical wall" between Russia and the EU, creating artificial "Russian threat" for Europe and twisting spiral of confrontation between two sides with the help of Baltic states and Poland (concept of "Intermarium"). Contemporary Polish ruling elite follows this strategy, because sees America as a main guarantor of Poland's security and wants to be its main ally in Europe. Also exploits "Russian threat" to strengthen its popularity internally. Creation of TDS – one of the populist steps in this direction. But it can be paradoxically useful in case of possible disintegration of Ukraine.

Creation of the Territorial Defense System (TDS) in Poland is a very serious step in military, political and economic terms. Therefore, it is important to understand if this decision is an effective response to Russian threat or a politically motivated populist mistake. Article explains, why military conflict between NATO and Russia is not realistic. At the same time, some interest groups in American elite (mainly, the so called "hawks") are interested in construction of the "geopolitical wall" between Russia and the EU, creating artificial "Russian threat" for Europe and twisting spiral of confrontation between two sides with the help of Baltic states and Poland (concept of "Intermarium"). Contemporary Polish ruling elite follows this strategy, because sees America as a main guarantor of Poland's security and wants to be its main ally in Europe. Also exploits "Russian threat" to strengthen its popularity internally. Creation of TDS – one of the populist steps in this direction. But it can be paradoxically useful in case of possible disintegration of Ukraine.

Revolutionary studies have a long history starting from Thucydides, Plato and Aris­totle, going through historians of Middle Ages and finishing by four generations of modern revolutionary research for the moment. History school (I generation) develo­ped elaborate descriptions of the stages of some of the major social revolutions up to their day (often surprisingly accurate for later events as well) without a clear theory of "why" revolutions occurred or what accounted for their outcomes. The general the­ories of the 1960s (II generation) of T. R. Gurr, J. C. Davies, Ch. Johnson and others used social psychological and functionalist models to address the "why" question, but were subject to the criticism that their causal variables (relative deprivation, subsys­tems disequilibria, and the like) were vague, difficult to observe, or hard to measure. The third generation moved to the macrosociological level of comparing national cases in which the key variables included class relations, the state, the international economy etc. The search for causal patterns of social revolutions was pursued in The­da Skocpol's path-breaking work "States and Social Revolution", the 1979 capstone of third-generation structural theories. The reign of third-generation theories of revolution appears to be over. No equ­ally dominant fourth-generation theory has yet emerged, but the lineaments of such a theory are clear. Afourth generation of revolution theory is going to reverse all of Skocpol's key stipulations. It treats stability as problematic, sees a wide range of factors and conditions as producing departures from stability, and recognizes that the processes and outcomes of revolutions are mediated by group identity, networks, co­alitions and cultural framework; leadership and competing ideologies; and the inter­play among rulers, elites, popular groups, and foreign powers in response to ongoing conflicts. Still the fourth generation of revolutionary studies like all others before it can not fully explain a newly appeared phenomenon in the field of revolutionary research – "colourful revolutions" (do not to speak about many other problems of revolutionary theory, starting from the conundrum of defining revolution term and finishing by the problem of creating of the general theory of revolution). Colourful revolution (but not all researchers apply a "revolution" term to this phenomenon) is not well elaborated for the moment. It is clearly related to existing studies of revolution and may be partially explained using their insights (especially defining the causes of the revolu­tions), but it is unique in its implementation technique. The core idea in this context is a postmodern idea of bio-power (conception of the rule over people body and mind), firstly proposed by Michel Foucault. Practice demonstrates that the governments in post-soviet societies are hardly prepared to notice, perceive and counter applying of such technologies used by opposition, but on the other hand the examples of Belarus and Russia shows that it is possible to minimize the possibility of colourful revolutionin one separate country. In this context " tulip revolution" in Kyrgyzstan is an ex­ample of transformation from classical violent revolution (like "Great Revolutions") to "colourful revolution" (the most demonstrative example is "orange revolution" in the Ukraine) with a great role of accidence in this event. ; Straipsnyje analizuojamas "spalvotosios revoliucijos" fenomenas, ir tai yra naujas revoliucijų studijų etapas. Straipsnio tikslas − ištirti šį reiškinį vadovaujantis klasikinėmis revoliucijos teorijomis, siekiant surasti galimą jo santykį su ankstesniais revoliucijų aiškinimais ir parodyti išskirtinius jo bruožus. Straipsnyje yra trumpai apžvelgiamos keturios revoliucijų studijų kartos, suformuluojamos pagrindinės revoliucijų tyrimo problemos, patei­kiamas "spalvotosios revoliucijos" apibrėžimas ir jos modelio schema. Taip pat straipsnyje yra pateikiama trumpa Kirgizijos tulpių revoliucijos analizė, siekiant išsiaiškinti, kiek šis atvejis (ne)atitinka nusistovėjusius "spalvoto­sios revoliucijos" principus.Pagrindinė straipsnio išvada yra ta, kad "spalvotosios revoliucijos" turi būdingų bruožų, kurių iš esmės neišskiria ir neišplėtoja ankstesni revoliucijų tyrimai. Svarbiausias "spalvotųjų revoliucijų", palyginti su praeities revoliu­cijomis, išskirtinumas (antrasis kertinis "spalvotųjų revoliucijų" elementas, šalia objektyvios visuomeninio nepasitenkinimo valdžia ir padėtimi šalyje bazės) – jų technika (t. y. kaip nuverčiama valdžia), kuri a) yra novatoriška politinių technologijų taikymo prasme ir b) orientuojasi visų pirma į žmonių (minios) sąmonės paveikimą ir valdymą (ad hoc, arba "savo", arba "naujos" tautos sukūrimą). Pastarasis aspektas revoliucijų tyrinėtojų tik pradedamas nuodugniau analizuoti ir yra vertas tolesnio dėmesio.

After collapse of the Soviet Union Central Asia (CA) was not in the focus of academic society and big geopolitical players, Kyrgyzstan not being an exception. But today Russia is back to CA through the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) and Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Kyrgyzstan is a member of CSTO and is going to join the EEU. Therefore it is worth of broader analysis. This study tried to understand specifics of Kyrgyz internal and external course of development. It found that internal political process in Kyrgyzstan used to be very problematic. The country suffered a lot from two revolutions, caused by the authoritarian "family rule" of Askar Akaev and Kurmanbek Bakiev. After that Kyrgyzstan decided to change its system of government from presidential to parliamentary (or semi-presidential) model. But this experiment did not bring peace and stability, additionally complicated by ethnic tension between Kyrgyz and Uzbek citizens. Possible recipe of success – bigger socio-economic responsibility of the government, but it is still not in place. After two people revolts Kyrgyzstan was near to become a "failed state", but orientation towards strategic partnership with Russia and membership in the EEU can help it to survive politically and economically at the expense of Russian geopolitical ambitions, compensate internal political turbulence by external factor of stability. Moreover, close (also institutional) cooperation with Moscow strengthens systemic power of Kyrgyzstan in its relations with the closest neighbors, such as Uzbekistan (not satisfied with the water policy of Bishkek) and Afghanistan (poses real security threat of Islamic extremism and terrorism to Kyrgyzstan). To sum up, for the moment Kyrgyz internal politics is hardly predictable, also because of the parliamentary experiment, but definite external orientation towards Russia and the EEU creates some basis for stable long term development of the country.

Revolutionary studies have a long history starting from Thucydides, Plato and Aris­totle, going through historians of Middle Ages and finishing by four generations of modern revolutionary research for the moment. History school (I generation) develo­ped elaborate descriptions of the stages of some of the major social revolutions up to their day (often surprisingly accurate for later events as well) without a clear theory of "why" revolutions occurred or what accounted for their outcomes. The general the­ories of the 1960s (II generation) of T. R. Gurr, J. C. Davies, Ch. Johnson and others used social psychological and functionalist models to address the "why" question, but were subject to the criticism that their causal variables (relative deprivation, subsys­tems disequilibria, and the like) were vague, difficult to observe, or hard to measure. The third generation moved to the macrosociological level of comparing national cases in which the key variables included class relations, the state, the international economy etc. The search for causal patterns of social revolutions was pursued in The­da Skocpol's path-breaking work "States and Social Revolution", the 1979 capstone of third-generation structural theories. The reign of third-generation theories of revolution appears to be over. No equ­ally dominant fourth-generation theory has yet emerged, but the lineaments of such a theory are clear. Afourth generation of revolution theory is going to reverse all of Skocpol's key stipulations. It treats stability as problematic, sees a wide range of factors and conditions as producing departures from stability, and recognizes that the processes and outcomes of revolutions are mediated by group identity, networks, co­alitions and cultural framework; leadership and competing ideologies; and the inter­play among rulers, elites, popular groups, and foreign powers in response to ongoing conflicts. Still the fourth generation of revolutionary studies like all others before it can not fully explain a newly appeared phenomenon in the field of revolutionary research – "colourful revolutions" (do not to speak about many other problems of revolutionary theory, starting from the conundrum of defining revolution term and finishing by the problem of creating of the general theory of revolution). Colourful revolution (but not all researchers apply a "revolution" term to this phenomenon) is not well elaborated for the moment. It is clearly related to existing studies of revolution and may be partially explained using their insights (especially defining the causes of the revolu­tions), but it is unique in its implementation technique. The core idea in this context is a postmodern idea of bio-power (conception of the rule over people body and mind), firstly proposed by Michel Foucault. Practice demonstrates that the governments in post-soviet societies are hardly prepared to notice, perceive and counter applying of such technologies used by opposition, but on the other hand the examples of Belarus and Russia shows that it is possible to minimize the possibility of colourful revolutionin one separate country. In this context " tulip revolution" in Kyrgyzstan is an ex­ample of transformation from classical violent revolution (like "Great Revolutions") to "colourful revolution" (the most demonstrative example is "orange revolution" in the Ukraine) with a great role of accidence in this event.

Contemporary Central Asia (CA / Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan) is an internationally important region in economic and security sense. Its biggest problem is the lack of long-term political stability, which became the object of the thesis. Accordingly, the purpose of the thesis was to determine the basic reasons of instability in CA states, to disclose their detailed essence and offer an effective conception to maintain long-term stability in them. Stability was defined in dissertation as absence of revolution and objective/subjective socio-political and socio-economic base of discontent with the government of a single taken country, which is a premise and condition of the revolution in it. More favorable conditions for any revolution (classical or "colorful"), as it was stressed in the study, are supposed to form in the transitional societies with no deep historical tradition of statehood, as it is in case of CA states. Therefore, the conclusion was made that the successful state (as ethnic-civil entity and institutional system) "building" is a fundamental preventive condition of revolution (instability) and its premises there, applying principle of socio-political corporatism in organization of the system of governance in the framework of Central Asian presidential regimes. The core idea of the principle is a consensual politics of the ruling elite of the country, meeting not only individual needs, but also socio-economic needs of the society, what will keep the political system of CA states stable in the long run. External factor in case of stability in Central Asia is secondary, but presumed balance of power between Russia and China in the region is going to become its additional guarantee.

Contemporary Central Asia (CA / Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan) is an internationally important region in economic and security sense. Its biggest problem is the lack of long-term political stability, which became the object of the thesis. Accordingly, the purpose of the thesis was to determine the basic reasons of instability in CA states, to disclose their detailed essence and offer an effective conception to maintain long-term stability in them. Stability was defined in dissertation as absence of revolution and objective/subjective socio-political and socio-economic base of discontent with the government of a single taken country, which is a premise and condition of the revolution in it. More favorable conditions for any revolution (classical or "colorful"), as it was stressed in the study, are supposed to form in the transitional societies with no deep historical tradition of statehood, as it is in case of CA states. Therefore, the conclusion was made that the successful state (as ethnic-civil entity and institutional system) "building" is a fundamental preventive condition of revolution (instability) and its premises there, applying principle of socio-political corporatism in organization of the system of governance in the framework of Central Asian presidential regimes. The core idea of the principle is a consensual politics of the ruling elite of the country, meeting not only individual needs, but also socio-economic needs of the society, what will keep the political system of CA states stable in the long run. External factor in case of stability in Central Asia is secondary, but presumed balance of power between Russia and China in the region is going to become its additional guarantee.

Contemporary Central Asia (CA / Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan) is an internationally important region in economic and security sense. Its biggest problem is the lack of long-term political stability, which became the object of the thesis. Accordingly, the purpose of the thesis was to determine the basic reasons of instability in CA states, to disclose their detailed essence and offer an effective conception to maintain long-term stability in them. Stability was defined in dissertation as absence of revolution and objective/subjective socio-political and socio-economic base of discontent with the government of a single taken country, which is a premise and condition of the revolution in it. More favorable conditions for any revolution (classical or "colorful"), as it was stressed in the study, are supposed to form in the transitional societies with no deep historical tradition of statehood, as it is in case of CA states. Therefore, the conclusion was made that the successful state (as ethnic-civil entity and institutional system) "building" is a fundamental preventive condition of revolution (instability) and its premises there, applying principle of socio-political corporatism in organization of the system of governance in the framework of Central Asian presidential regimes. The core idea of the principle is a consensual politics of the ruling elite of the country, meeting not only individual needs, but also socio-economic needs of the society, what will keep the political system of CA states stable in the long run. External factor in case of stability in Central Asia is secondary, but presumed balance of power between Russia and China in the region is going to become its additional guarantee.

Contemporary Central Asia (CA / Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan) is an internationally important region in economic and security sense. Its biggest problem is the lack of long-term political stability, which became the object of the thesis. Accordingly, the purpose of the thesis was to determine the basic reasons of instability in CA states, to disclose their detailed essence and offer an effective conception to maintain long-term stability in them. Stability was defined in dissertation as absence of revolution and objective/subjective socio-political and socio-economic base of discontent with the government of a single taken country, which is a premise and condition of the revolution in it. More favorable conditions for any revolution (classical or "colorful"), as it was stressed in the study, are supposed to form in the transitional societies with no deep historical tradition of statehood, as it is in case of CA states. Therefore, the conclusion was made that the successful state (as ethnic-civil entity and institutional system) "building" is a fundamental preventive condition of revolution (instability) and its premises there, applying principle of socio-political corporatism in organization of the system of governance in the framework of Central Asian presidential regimes. The core idea of the principle is a consensual politics of the ruling elite of the country, meeting not only individual needs, but also socio-economic needs of the society, what will keep the political system of CA states stable in the long run. External factor in case of stability in Central Asia is secondary, but presumed balance of power between Russia and China in the region is going to become its additional guarantee.

In this article phenomenon of the "color revolution" as a new step in the revolutionary theory is discussed. The main purpose was to define its relation to the classical revolutionary studies & its specific features. As a result author constructed definition of the "color revolution" & its process model is proposed in the article. As a practical case the "tulip revolution" in Kyrgyzstan was taken in order to find out how much it fits newly appeared "color revolution" type. The main conclusion of the article is that "color revolution" in some way differs from early proposed revolution & its process definitions & its crucial new feature is the use of the political technologies seeking to affect people mind ("moment society" creation for power attainment). Adapted from the source document.