Suchergebnisse

'nordwest2050' hat mit der "Roadmap of Change" einen Fahrplan entwickelt, der Wege zu einer nachhaltigen, klimaangepassten und resilienten Metropolregion Bremen-Oldenburg bis zum Jahr 2050 beschreibt. In ihm sind Handlungsoptionen für regionale Akteure beschrieben, um dieses Ziel zu erreichen. Zu berücksichtigen sind dabei die externen Rahmenbedingungen, in denen sich die Region im Jahr 2050 bewegen wird. Aus diesem Grund hat 'nordwest2050' gemeinsam mit regionalen Akteuren so genannten Rahmenszenarien entwickelt, die mögliche Rahmenbedingungen für die Region im Jahre 2050 beschreiben und damit die 'Leitplanken' möglicher Entwicklungen für die Bereiche Energie, Ernährung, Hafen/Logistik sowie Regionalpolitik bilden. Zum Erstellen der Rahmenszenarien wurden in den Sektoren Energie, Ernährung/Landwirtschaft, Hafen/Logistik und Regionalpolitik die jeweils wichtigsten Einflussfaktoren identifiziert. Aus diesen wurden drei konsistente Szenarien erarbeitet, die eine mögliche Welt im Jahr 2050 beschreiben: Regionalisierte Welt, Nachhaltige Globalisierung, Ungebremste Globalisierung.

With the Paris target of limiting global warming to well below 2 °C until 2100, at best even 1.5 °C, the question arises what this implies for the EU's mitigation targets and strategies. In this article, the reduction of carbon intensities and energy uses in the most ambitious mitigation scenarios for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, and the UK are compared to those of the EU in global 1.5 and 2 °C scenarios. An index decomposition analysis is applied to energy supply and each end-use sector (industry, buildings, and transport) to identify the main differences. From this, we derive conclusions concerning policies and indicators for an EU mitigation strategy compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. The index decomposition shows that reducing energy use is a stronger lever in the evaluated national scenarios than in the international scenarios for all end-use sectors. The reasons for that are the lower utilization of CCS, the inclusion of additional technology options, and a detailed consideration of sufficiency in the national scenarios. The results suggest that including more ambitious demand-side mitigation options (sufficiency, energy efficiency, electrification, and fuel switching) can significantly reduce the need for negative emissions that are required in all the existing 1.5 °C-compatible global scenarios. Driving these options requires substantial enhancement of current policies for all end-use sectors. In addition, certain index decomposition approaches are shown to underrate the long-term contributions of demand-side mitigation. Accordingly, demand-side mitigation tends to be under-represented in progress indicators for the Paris Agreement, which calls for improvements.

The Paris Agreement calls on countries to pursue efforts to limit global average temperature rise to 1.5°C. We derive a 2016–2050 emission budget for the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) based on cost-effectiveness criteria aimed at achieving the 1.5°C target with a 50%–66% probability, and translate it into a cap reduction path. We show that, under current ETS parameters, the vast majority of this budget will be consumed by 2030. Meeting the budget under current 2030 EU ETS parameters would require drastic - and probably unrealistic - additional efforts after 2030. We derive a cost-effective scenario delivering a smoother and more credible emission pathway. We show that recently increased EU targets for renewable energy and energy efficiency, along with national coal phase-out policies up to 2030 provide cap adjustment potential. If the cap is adjusted to reflect these policies and if phased-out coal capacities are fully substituted through renewable energy, emissions in ETS sectors could decline by 57% through to 2030. This approximates our cost-effective scenario and translates into a linear reduction factor (LRF) for the cap of 3.6% for the period 2021–2030.

The Paris Agreement calls on countries to pursue efforts to limit global average temperature rise to 1.5°C. We derive a 2016–2050 emission budget for the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) based on cost-effectiveness criteria aimed at achieving the 1.5°C target with a 50%–66% probability, and translate it into a cap reduction path. We show that, under current ETS parameters, the vast majority of this budget will be consumed by 2030. Meeting the budget under current 2030 EU ETS parameters would require drastic – and probably unrealistic – additional efforts after 2030. We derive a cost-effective scenario delivering a smoother and more credible emission pathway. We show that recently increased EU targets for renewable energy and energy efficiency, along with national coal phase-out policies up to 2030 provide cap adjustment potential. If the cap is adjusted to reflect these policies and if phased-out coal capacities are fully substituted through renewable energy, emissions in ETS sectors could decline by 57% through to 2030. This approximates our cost-effective scenario and translates into a linear reduction factor (LRF) for the cap of 3.6% for the period 2021–2030.

Aktuell wird eine Anhebung des europäischen Klimaschutzziels für das Jahr 2030 diskutiert. Anstatt um 40 Prozent sollen die Treibhausgas-Emissionen bis 2030 laut Vorschlag der EU-Kommission um 50 bis 55 Prozent im Vergleich zu 1990 sinken. Im Europäischen Parlament wird sogar eine Minderung um 65 Prozent diskutiert. Dazu sollen auch die vom europäischen Emissionshandel (EU-ETS) erfassten Sektoren angemessen beitragen. Entscheidend für die Begrenzung der Erderwärmung auf 1,5 Grad Celsius – im Einklang mit dem Pariser Klimaabkommen – ist jedoch die Einhaltung eines damit konsistenten Emissionsbudgets, also der Gesamtmenge kumulierter Treibhausgasemissionen. Im EU-ETS wird die Einhaltung eines Emissionsbudgets über Anpassungen der Emissionsobergrenze – des Caps – vorgenommen. Dieser Wochenbericht leitet aus einem global kosteneffizienten Emissionsbudget die Mindestanforderung für Emissionssenkungen in den EU-ETS-Sektoren her. Es wird gezeigt, dass eine zeitnahe Anpassung des Caps dringend erforderlich ist, um den europäischen Mindestbeitrag zur Begrenzung der Erderwärmung auf 1,5 Grad zu sichern. Ansonsten wäre eine drastische Senkung der Emissionen nach 2030 erforderlich. Gleichzeitig bieten die gestiegenen Ambitionen in der europäischen Energiepolitik sowie nationale Kohleausstiegspläne das Potenzial, durch eine entsprechende Cap-Anpassung dem kosteneffizienten Pfad ohne zusätzliche Minderungslasten für die EU-ETS-Sektoren nahezukommen.

Currently, the European Commission intends to increase the EU's 2030 climate target. Instead of a 40 percent target, greenhouse gas emissions would be reduced by 50 to 55 percent compared to 1990 levels; the European Parliament is even considering a 65-percent reduction. The European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) sectors should make an appropriate contribution to this reduction. However, decisive for limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, as in accordance with the Paris Agreement, is compliance with a consistent emissions budget, the total amount of cumulative greenhouse gas emissions. For the EU ETS, compliance with an emissions budget requires adjusting the emission cap. This Weekly Report derives the minimum requirement for emission reductions in the EU ETS sectors in line with a globally cost-effective emissions budget. The results show the cap must be urgently adjusted to ensure the minimum European contribution to limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Otherwise, beginning in 2030, drastic measures will be necessary to reduce emissions. At the same time, national coal phase-out plans and a more ambitious European energy policy make it possible to approximate the cost-effective pathway by adjusting the cap, without additional reduction requirements for the EU ETS sectors.

Currently, the European Commission intends to increase the EU's 2030 climate target. Instead of a 40 percent target, greenhouse gas emissions would be reduced by 50 to 55 percent compared to 1990 levels; the European Parliament is even considering a 65-percent reduction. The European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) sectors should make an appropriate contribution to this reduction. However, decisive for limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, as in accordance with the Paris Agreement, is compliance with a consistent emissions budget, the total amount of cumulative greenhouse gas emissions. For the EU ETS, compliance with an emissions budget requires adjusting the emission cap. This Weekly Report derives the minimum requirement for emission reductions in the EU ETS sectors in line with a globally cost-effective emissions budget. The results show the cap must be urgently adjusted to ensure the minimum European contribution to limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Otherwise, beginning in 2030, drastic measures will be necessary to reduce emissions. At the same time, national coal phase-out plans and a more ambitious European energy policy make it possible to approximate the cost-effective pathway by adjusting the cap, without additional reduction requirements for the EU ETS sectors.

Aktuell wird eine Anhebung des europäischen Klimaschutzziels für das Jahr 2030 diskutiert. Anstatt um 40 Prozent sollen die Treibhausgas-Emissionen bis 2030 laut Vorschlag der EU-Kommission um 50 bis 55 Prozent im Vergleich zu 1990 sinken. Im Europäischen Parlament wird sogar eine Minderung um 65 Prozent diskutiert. Dazu sollen auch die vom europäischen Emissionshandel (EU-ETS) erfassten Sektoren angemessen beitragen. Entscheidend für die Begrenzung der Erderwärmung auf 1,5 Grad Celsius - im Einklang mit dem Pariser Klimaabkommen - ist jedoch die Einhaltung eines damit konsistenten Emissionsbudgets, also der Gesamtmenge kumulierter Treibhausgasemissionen. Im EU-ETS wird die Einhaltung eines Emissionsbudgets über Anpassungen der Emissionsobergrenze - des Caps - vorgenommen. Dieser Wochenbericht leitet aus einem global kosteneffizienten Emissionsbudget die Mindestanforderung für Emissionssenkungen in den EU-ETS-Sektoren her. Es wird gezeigt, dass eine zeitnahe Anpassung des Caps dringend erforderlich ist, um den europäischen Mindestbeitrag zur Begrenzung der Erderwärmung auf 1,5 Grad zu sichern. Ansonsten wäre eine drastische Senkung der Emissionen nach 2030 erforderlich. Gleichzeitig bieten die gestiegenen Ambitionen in der europäischen Energiepolitik sowie nationale Kohleausstiegspläne das Potenzial, durch eine entsprechende Cap-Anpassung dem kosteneffizienten Pfad ohne zusätzliche Minderungslasten für die EU-ETS-Sektoren nahezukommen.

A long-term vision for climate protection is essential for triggering the actions and policies needed to bring about economy-wide decarbonisation. The scientific basis for long-term climate planning comes in the form of so-called climate protection scenarios. These studies model emission pathways and potential mitigation options with a time horizon of mid-century and, like national strategies, differ substantially country to country in their scope, content and ambition, i.e., the magnitude of foreseen emission reductions. This document summarises the findings of a assessment of European climate protection scenarios initiated by the German Environment Agency (UBA) project: "Supporting the development of ambitious climate change scenarios in Europe." The principle finding from a descriptive evaluation and exemplary comparative analysis is that scenario development varies substantially by EU Member State - with countries emphasising different mitigation options and pathways based on inter alia national context. Considering the importance of long-term scenario development in the strategy development process, a process for alignment and a more unified basis for scenario development in Europe could improve modelling and thus long-term climate planning overall - and facilitate also effective regional and EU level approaches as complement to national strategies.