Suchergebnisse

The main contrast between official discussions of China's rural economic development that took place nearly 40 years ago and those of the late 1980s is not to be found in the identification of the problems themselves, but in the policies proposed for their solution. Then, as now, stress was placed on the problems arising from the adverse man-land ratio; on the crucial importance for China's industrial development of securing adequate supplies of grain; on balancing the latter consideration with the need to supply the light industries with agricultural raw materials such as cotton; on developing the livestock sector of agriculture (particularly pigs) in the interests of consumption and of soil fertility; and on the investment requirements of agriculture, especially in the realm of water conservation and irrigation. These have been the constant factors in discussions throughout the past 40 years.

The main aim of the article is to establish what "stage" of development the rural economy has reached in China, 40 years after the revolution. After classifying provinces according to their rural economic structure and level of output, it considers the provincial pattern of agricultural (as opposed to rural) development and modernization; development, measured by incomes and food consumption, is then examined. A brief forward glance in the light of the current stage of rural development is offered. (DÜI-Sen)

The economic and institutional framework against which trends in crop production under the government of Deng Xiaoping must be considered, is vastly different from that which existed throughout the Mao era. In a word, Deng replaced a system of planned production and supply by one in which market demand became the main determinant of the level and structure of agricultural production. Under Mao Zedong, maximizing the physical output of key agricultural products was the basis of agricultural policy. Centrally identified priorities – based on "national need" – were reflected in targets for the output, sown area and yield per hectare of individual items. These mandatory targets were to be fulfilled by the collective farms (the production teams of the communes) which were the basic organizational units of Chinese agriculture. Similarly, the disposal of farm output was determined by the central plan. For production teams, therefore, decision-making was relatively simple and followed the sequence of production, harvesting and procurement, all according to plans laid down by the government. Cost accounting was rudimentary. It was not, in any case, geared to the promotion of "economic efficiency." If production costs rose-for example, as a result of an increase in the multiple cropping index directed by the government – the peasants bore the burden, as they were the residual claimants in the distribution of income by the production teams.

The aim of the paper is to survey the main trends in crop production under the new economic and institutional framework in the PRC and to set these trends in the context of the past and future. The main emphasis is on how the trends relate to the severe and increasing constraint imposed by the small, declining arable area of the country. (DÜI-Sen)

The main aim of China's agricultural policy during the Readjustment has been to raise the production of all branches of the sector in order to increase employment and incomes and to reduce the country's growing dependence on foreign agricultural imports, especially sugar, cotton and edible oil. In adopting this policy the government has recognized and accepted the need to maintain and even to increase foreign grain imports during the foreseeable future.

The paper probes the government's agricultural strategy during the period of the readjustment and trends in agricultural production during this period. Agricultural planning decentralized and agricultural prices changed to stimulate the desired production structure. Responsibility systems based on the farm household and an increased private agricultural sector introduced. The paper shows that the government has undoubtedly succeeded in implementing much of its general plan for agricultural restructuring and development. (DÜI-Sen)

The level of grain consumption per head is by far the most important indicator of human welfare in China. It is therefore not surprising that the provision of food grain dominates official discussions of economic policy. Since 1978 the demand for grain has been raised significantly by the acceleration of incomes, following 20 years of stagnation, although the effect of this has been mitigated by the decline in the rate of growth of population, from 2·4 per cent per year (1970–74) to 1·2 per cent (1978–80). The demand for grain for direct consumption has not yet reached saturation in most parts of China and consumption rises with income per head. The demand for fine grain (rice, wheat and soya) is more income elastic than that for coarse grain such as millet, maize and especially sweet potatoes. In addition, the Chinese people are pressing to improve their diet by consuming more livestock products, the production of which requires large quantities of grain. In spite of the fact that grain is rationed, restricted "demand" as laid down by the Government cannot be met from domestic production and China is a large grain importer. Accurate estimates of food grain consumption are thus essential if we are to assess correctly the current state of the Chinese economy and its future trends.

The publication of basic agricultural statistics by China for the first time in 20 years has quickened the collective pulse of western economists. During the decade of the 1960s there were virtually no statistics and economic discussion of the performance of agriculture was almost restricted to asking " How much grain does China produce? " In the early years of the 1970s some national and provincial grain production figures began to appear, but they were fragmentary, often inconsistent and difficult to interpret. Even so, there was a much better statistical basis for economic analysis than had previously existed and the situation improved right up to the fall of the " gang of four." Since 1976 the increase in the supply of statistics has been swift, and especially since 1978, quite dramatic and exciting. For economists interested in agriculture, the publication of the new journal Nongye jingji wenti (Problems of Agricultural Economics) by the Agricultural Economic Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Social Science, and the resurrection of Nongcun gongzuo tongxun (Rural Work Bulletin), have been particularly important.