OLD NAILS IN NEW COFFINS: THE PARA BELLUM HYPOTHESIS REVISITED
In: Journal of peace research, Band 18, Heft 1, S. 91-95
ISSN: 0022-3433
STRONG CORRELATIONS HAVE BEEN ESTABLISHED BETWEEN ARMS RACE AND THE ESCALATION OF CONFLICT INTO WAR. THE PARA BELLUM HYPOTHESIS ARGUES THAT THE ARMS RACE IS NECESSARY TO PREVENT THE DANGEROUS SITUATION OF ONE PARTY GAINING PREPONDERENCE. USING INDICES OF SUPERIORITY AND DIFFERENTIAL GROWTH THIS HYPOTHESIS CAN BE TESTED USING CORRELATES OF WAR AND LOGIT ANALYSIS. RESULTS FAVOR THE ARMS RACE INDEX.