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We study settlement fails for trades in the Government of Canada bond market. We find that settlement fails do not occur independently. Using a novel and comprehensive dataset, we examine three drivers of fails. First, we find that fails are more likely following the release of surprise macroeconomic news. Second, settlement fails are more likely for bonds with greater trading activity in the borrowing market. These findings suggest that the recirculation of bonds through long settlement chains is important for understanding fails. Third, fails are more likely when interest rates are low and when the cost for borrowing a bond is high, which is likely because of frictions acting as constraints on the price to borrow a bond. Together, the evidence suggests that improvements to the price mechanism in the borrowing market could improve the recirculation of scarce bonds and may improve the functioning of the bond market.

This paper investigates how a low or negative overnight interest rate might affect the Canadian repo markets. The main conclusion is that the repo market for general collateral will continue to function effectively. However, changes to market conventions - such as the introduction of a charge for settlement fails - or other institutional changes may be required so that the repo market for specific collateral continues to support liquidity on the secondary market for government bonds. The historical experience shows that the special repo market in other jurisdictions can function effectively even if the overnight rate is negative. Closer examination suggests what specific circumstances can lead to persistent settlement fails in the specific collateral repo market. Specifically, the combination of (i) low or negative interest rates, (ii) large aggregate short positions in bonds, and (iii) economic or policy surprises may lead to persistent settlement fails.

Purpose
This paper aims to present four blue-sky ideas for lowering the cost of the Government of Canada's debt without increasing the debt's risk profile.


Design/methodology/approach
The authors argue that each idea would improve the secondary-market liquidity of government debt, thereby increasing the demand for government bonds, and thus, lowering their cost at issuance.


Findings
The first two ideas would improve liquidity by enhancing the active management of the government's debt through market operations used to support the liquidity of outstanding bonds. The second two ideas would simplify the set of securities issued by the government, concentrating issuance in a smaller set of bonds that would each be more highly traded.


Originality/value
The authors discuss the ideas and give an account of the political, legal and operational impediments.

This paper presents four blue-sky ideas for lowering the cost of the Government of Canada's debt without increasing the debt's risk profile. We argue that each idea would improve the secondary-market liquidity of government debt, thereby increasing the demand for government bonds and thus lowering their cost at issuance. The first two ideas would improve liquidity by enhancing the active management of the government's debt through market operations used to support the liquidity of outstanding bonds. The second two ideas would simplify the set of securities issued by the government, concentrating issuance in a smaller set of bonds that would each be more highly traded. We discuss the ideas and give an account of the political, legal and operational impediments.