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"This book provides a comprehensive overview of the fruitful achievement of China's Quantitative Economics during the past 30 years, assembling pioneering contributions of prominent quantitative economists in China. It chronicles significant events and the detailed evolution of Quantitative Economics in China. This well-organized book is a must-have for scholars to get a full picture of the status quo, and identify possible research gaps."--

This fifth English volume of The China Economy Yearbook is based on a symposium held in autumn 2009 titled Analysis and Forecast of China's Economic Situation, organised by the Analysis and Forecast Project Group for China's Economic Situation of the Institute of Economics, China Academy of Social Sciences.

Preliminary Material /Jiagui Chen , Shucheng Liu and Tongsan Wang -- 1. Top Priority Must Be Given to the "Dual Prevents" in Ongoing Macroeconomic Control Initiatives /Jiagui Chen -- 2. China's Economic Situation: Analysis and Forecast, 2007–2008 /China's Economic Situation Analysis and Forecast Project Group, Institute of Economics, CASS -- 3. China's Great Virtuous Cycle of Cyclical Economic Fluctuations /Shucheng Liu -- 4. China's Macroeconomic Situation and Policies: 2007–2008 /School of Economics, Renmin University of China -- 5. Analysis and Forecast of the Economic Climate and Price Situation, 2007–2008 /Lei Chen , Yunfang Liang and Sheng'e Qiu -- 6. Establishing a Long-Term Mechanism for Increasing Agricultural Output and Farmers' Incomes /Xiaoshan Zhang -- 7. Analysis of Industrial Enterprises' Earning Performance /Bei Jin and Gang Li -- 8. Analysis of China's Capital Goods Market in 2007 and Prospects for 2008 /Kexin Chen and Zongqun Chen -- 9. Analysis of China's Financial Situation and Monetary Policy in 2007 /Yang Li and Xingyun Peng -- 10. Currency Operations under the Dual Pressures of Accelerated Economic Growth and Price Inflation /Yi Wang , Lisheng SurnameZhang and Hao Chen -- 11. Analytical Prediction of China's Tax Revenue and Economic Operations in the Near Future /Peisen Zhang -- 12. Review of the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2007 and Its Prospects for 2008 /Qian Wu and Pingfang Zhu -- 13. Analysis of China's Trade in 2007 and Prospects in 2008 /Changhong Pei and Lei Peng -- 14. Analysis of China's Foreign Capital Utilisation Trends, 2007–2008: Stabilising Expectation, Expanding Scale, and Structural Improvements /Xiaojuan Jiang -- 15. Employment Expansion, Improvement of Distribution, and Sustainable Growth /Fang Cai -- 16. Analysis of Trends in China's Fast-Growing Economy and Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction Targets /Jianguo Qi -- 17. The Development of and Prospects for Beijing's Olympic Economy /Bing Cai -- 18. Analysis of the Real Estate Market in 2007 and Projections for 2008 /Zhan Pu -- 19. How to Look at China's Current Price Situation /Jingxing Zhao -- Appendix: Statistics /Lisheng Shen -- Index /Jiagui Chen , Shucheng Liu and Tongsan Wang.

ABSTRACTSince the onset of the economic reforms more than three decades ago, the Chinese growth miracle has been based on exports and investment. While strong output growth was maintained even during the financial crisis, imbalances within the country increased. To return to a more sustainable development path, recent government policies have aimed to improve the role of private consumption. This article argues that China's institutional framework is an impediment to this strategy, as it weakens the incentives of households to consume. As well as a low level of social security and highly regulated financial markets, the authors stress the relevance of the hukou system as the main driver for modest consumption, especially in recent years. After controlling for different income levels, the average propensity to consume is found to be significantly lower for migrants, as their access to public services is limited. If not accompanied by relevant reforms, the urbanization strategy of the government is likely to raise the number of migrants with limited hukou rights, further increasing the downward pressure on consumption. Therefore, in the absence of reforms in the household registration system, the shift towards consumption‐driven growth is at risk.

Capital investment and exports have driven China's remarkable economic growth for decades, but recent trends have put pressure on the government to move to a more consumption- driven model of growth. Unfortunately, China's institutional framework does little at the moment to spur household consumption. While the country's weak social security setup and highly regulated financial markets are routinely cited as disincentives to private consumption, the role of the hukou household registration system in depressing consumption gets less attention. Controlling for income levels on datasets from 2002 and 2007, we show the average propensity to consume is significantly lower for internal migrants to cities. Official figures suggest that China in 2013 had about 260 million internal migrants. These individuals are often separated from their families for long periods and denied access to public services in the cities where they work. The government's current urbanization strategy calls for increasing migrant populations in cities, which, in the absence of hukou reform, is likely to further dampen consumption.

The Chinese growth miracle was based on exports and investment in recent years. While strong output growth has been maintained even during the financial crisis, the imbalances within the country increased. To return to a more sustainable path of development, policies are directed to improve the role of private consumption. However, the institutional framework is an impediment to the transformation, as it weakens the incentives of households to consume. Besides a low degree of social security and highly regulated financial markets, we stress the relevance of the hukou system as the main driver for modest consumption, especially in recent years. After controlling for different income levels, the average propensity to consume is significantly lower for migrants, as their access to public services is limited. The downward pressure on consumption will increase in the future. The urbanization strategy of the government will likely raise the number of migrants with limited hukou rights, if it is not accompanied by respective reforms. Therefore, the transformation towards consumption driven growth is endangered without further reforms.

The Chinese growth miracle was based on exports and investment in recent years. While strong output growth has been maintained even during the financial crisis, the imbalances within the country increased. To return to a more sustainable path of development, policies are directed to improve the role of private consumption. However, the institutional framework is an impediment to the transformation, as it weakens the incentives of households to consume. Besides a low degree of social security and highly regulated financial markets, we stress the relevance of the hukou system as the main driver for modest consumption, especially in recent years. After controlling for different income levels, the average propensity to consume is significantly lower for migrants, as their access to public services is limited. The downward pressure on consumption will increase in the future. The urbanization strategy of the government will likely raise the number of migrants with limited hukou rights, if it is not accompanied by respective reforms. Therefore, the transformation towards consumption driven growth is endangered without further reforms.

The Chinese growth miracle was based on exports and investment in recent years. While strong output growth has been maintained even during the financial crisis, the imbalances within the country increased. To return to a more sustainable path of development, policies are directed to improve the role of private consumption. However, the institutional framework is an impediment to the transformation, as it weakens the incentives of households to consume. Besides a low degree of social security and highly regulated financial markets, we stress the relevance of the hukou system as the main driver for modest consumption, especially in recent years. After controlling for different income levels, the average propensity to consume is significantly lower for migrants, as their access to public services is limited. The downward pressure on consumption will increase in the future. The urbanization strategy of the government will likely raise the number of migrants with limited hukou rights, if it is not accompanied by respective reforms. Therefore, the transformation towards consumption driven growth is endangered without further reforms.

The first English edition of The China Economy Yearbook contains articles investigating the Chinese economy in the past year from various perspectives, ranging from decision-making at the macro level to key industries at the medium level, including real estate, foreign trade, the automotive industry, financing, and investment.

AbstractA panel data method is used to evaluate the impact of China's accession to the WTO. Time‐series data for China, Australia, Austria, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the UK, Hong Kong, Singapore, Korea, Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the USA and Taiwan are used to construct the growth path that what would have been followed had there been no entry by China to the WTO. We find that from 2002 to 2007, accession to the WTO raised China's real economic growth rate by 2.4%, its export growth rate by 13.2% and its import growth rate by 18.89% a year.