Suchergebnisse

For those open to the possibility that philosophical thought can improve life, David Hume's Essays: Moral, Political, and Literary have something to say. In the first comprehensive study of the Essays, Margaret Watkins engages closely with these neglected texts and shows how they provide important insights into Hume's perspective on the breadth and depth of human life, arguing that the Essays reveal his continued commitment to philosophy as a discipline that can promote both social and individual progress. Addressing topics such as politics, war, slavery, the priesthood, the development of industry, aesthetics, emotional disorders, egoism, friendship, sexuality, gender relations, and the nature of philosophy itself, the volume examines Hume's purposes and aims against the backdrop of the eighteenth century society in which he lived. It will be of interest to scholars of modern thought in philosophy, politics, history, and economics

Decision analytic modeling of polio risk management policies after eradication may help inform decisionmakers about the quantitative tradeoffs implied by various options. Given the significant dynamic complexity and uncertainty involving posteradication decisions, this article aims to clarify the structure of a decision analytic model developed to help characterize the risks, costs, and benefits of various options for polio risk management after eradication of wild polioviruses and analyze the implications of different sources of uncertainty. We provide an influence diagram of the model with a description of each component, explore the impact of different assumptions about model inputs, and present probability distributions of model outputs. The results show that choices made about surveillance, response, and containment for different income groups and immunization policies play a major role in the expected final costs and polio cases. While the overall policy implications of the model remain robust to the variations of assumptions and input uncertainty we considered, the analyses suggest the need for policymakers to carefully consider tradeoffs and for further studies to address the most important knowledge gaps.

The success of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative promises to bring large benefits, including sustained improvements in quality of life (i.e., cases of paralytic disease and deaths avoided) and costs saved from cessation of vaccination. Obtaining and maintaining these benefits requires that policymakers manage the transition from the current massive use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to a world without OPV and free of the risks of potential future reintroductions of live polioviruses. This article describes the analytical journey that began in 2001 with a retrospective case study on polio risk management and led to development of dynamic integrated risk, economic, and decision analysis tools to inform global policies for managing the risks of polio. This analytical journey has provided several key insights and lessons learned that will be useful to future analysts involved in similar complex decision‐making processes.