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Background/Aims: To project the numbers of pre-obese (BMI 25-29.99 kg/m²) and obese (BMI > 30 kg/m²) men and women aged 50+ in Germany until 2030 and to compare our estimates with actual figures from four European countries and the USA. Estimates are based on six scenarios encompassing improvements as well as worsenings of current trends. Methods: We used pooled data from 1999 to 2009 of the German Microcensus (n = 1,472,547). Using multinomial logistic regression models we estimated age-specific probabilities of pre-obesity and obesity and applied them to the 12th population projection of the Federal Statistical Office. Results: We project overall increases in absolute numbers of pre-obesity ranging between 14.2 and 18.2 million. However, the prevalence of pre-obesity is likely to decrease slightly. In contrast, absolute and relative numbers of obesity are projected to increase, ranging between 7.2 and 15.8 million. The international comparison revealed that pre-obesity prevalences will remain among the highest in Germany, while obesity is projected to fall below current levels of the UK or the USA. Conclusion: Pre-obesity and, particularly, obesity are likely to become a more prominent health issue in Germany in the near future which could have large repercussions for the public health system.

Fumer est l'un des principaux facteurs de risque pour la santé de la population et la mortalité prématurée. En Allemagne, l'évolution de la consommation de cigarette montre qu'elle s'est propagée selon les principes de la théorie de la diffusion. Cette note de recherche présente des données empiriques sur la propension à commencer à fumer (individus « ayant déjà fumé ») et à cesser de fumer (« anciens fumeurs ») en mettant l'accent sur le rôle du niveau d'études et les différences entre l'Allemagne de l'Est et de l'Ouest. L'histoire du comportement tabagique est présentée dans une perspective générationnelle. L'analyse repose sur les données de quatre vagues (1995, 1999, 2003 et 2005) du microrecensement allemand ( Mikrozensus ), qui comprennent des informations sur les habitudes tabagiques actuelles et passées des personnes enquêtées appartenant à des générations nées jusqu'en 1970. L'étude porte sur les proportions de personnes ayant déjà fumé et d'anciens fumeurs par groupe d'âges, selon leur niveau d'études, pour les hommes et les femmes d'Allemagne de l'Est et de l'Ouest, avec des modèles d'interaction permettant de comprendre si ces différences sont significatives. Ces résultats confirment les hypothèses de la théorie de la diffusion en Allemagne : les hommes précèdent les femmes dans le processus de diffusion, et les habitudes tabagiques diffèrent selon le niveau d'études. Concernant les femmes, on constate des différences d'évolution de la consommation entre l'Est et l'Ouest de l'Allemagne.

Banks in the euro area typically hold a large amount of government debt in their bond portfolios, which are valued both for their low credit risk and high liquidity. During the sovereign debt crisis, these characteristics of government debt were severely impaired in stressed euro area countries. In order to understand the transmission channels of stress from government debt markets to the real economy, we augment a standard dynamic macroeconomic model with a banking sector and a market for government debt characterized by search frictions. A sovereign solvency shock modelled as a haircut on government bonds is introduced to study the interaction of sovereign credit and liquidity risk. As banks react to this shock by rebalancing towards highly liquid short-run assets, such as central bank deposits, demand for government bonds collapses, which endogenously worsens their market liquidity. Thus, a sovereign liquidity risk channel from government bond markets to the real sector emerges. Endogenous government bond liquidity negatively affects the funding conditions of the fiscal sector, tightens financing constraints in the banking sector and lowers investment and output. The model is able to match a number of stylised facts regarding the behaviour of sovereign debt markets during the euro area sovereign debt crisis, such as depressed turnover rates and rising bid-ask spreads.