Suchergebnisse

ABSTRACTFrequently, alternative theories are proposed as relevant models for an economic process. Which alternative is a relatively better representation is a question of fact, but empirical methods of resolving the issue have not been compelling. This study developes a technique for discrimination from Bayesian statistical theory. This technique can analyze an arbitrary number of alternatives simultaneously, and each alternative can be characterized by distribution theory appropriate to its structure. An example, the aggregate consumption function, is considered, and each alternative is characterized by the Normal regression process. The results may only be regarded as suggestive, as the parameterization of the structure may be incomplete on that assumption.

ABSTRACTIn an advertising strategy, it is preferable to optimize a sequence of periodic decisions, rather than optimizing each period's decision separately. Thus, a dynamic technique such as optimal control, which is used in this study, should be employed. Necessary conditions, as inferred from a parsimonious advertising model, are tested using data from the tobacco industry. Parameter estimation involves the use of non‐linear regression. The estimates permit trajectories of optimal advertising expenditures and optimal market shares to be constructed for filter cigarettes. When compared with the actual trajectories, the optimizing trajectories exhibit a striking correspondence to reality. Therefore, interesting results can be obtained using a simple model, provided the optimizing method takes into account the dynamic nature of managerial decision‐making and provided powerful methods for estimating model parameters are used.