Suchergebnisse

18 Apr 2014: The PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases Staff (2014) Correction: Dengue Research Funded by the European Commission-Scientific Strategies of Three European Dengue Research Consortia. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 8(4): e2883. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002883 View correction ; International audience

18 Apr 2014: The PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases Staff (2014) Correction: Dengue Research Funded by the European Commission-Scientific Strategies of Three European Dengue Research Consortia. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 8(4): e2883. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002883 View correction ; International audience

Introduction: Increasingly, HIV-seropositive individuals cross international borders. HIV-related restrictions on entry, stay, and residence imposed by countries have important consequences for this mobile population. Our aim was to describe the geographical distribution of countries with travel restrictions and to examine the trends and characteristics of countries with such restrictions. Methods: In 2011, data presented to UNAIDS were used to establish a list of countries with and without HIV restrictions on entry, stay, and residence and to describe their geographical distribution. The following indicators were investigated to describe the country characteristics: population at mid-year, international migrants as a percentage of the population, Human Development Index, estimated HIV prevalence (age: 15 49), presence of a policy prohibiting HIV screening for general employment purposes, government and civil society responses to having non-discrimination laws/regulations which specify migrants/mobile populations, government and civil society responses to having laws/regulations/policies that present obstacles to effective HIV prevention, treatment, care, and support for migrants/mobile populations, Corruption Perception Index, and gross national income per capita. Results: HIV-related restrictions exist in 45 out of 193 WHO countries (23%) in all regions of the world. We found that the Eastern Mediterranean and Western Pacific Regions have the highest proportions of countries with these restrictions. Our analyses showed that countries that have opted for restrictions have the following characteristics: smaller populations, higher proportions of migrants in the population, lower HIV prevalence rates, and lack of legislation protecting people living with HIV from screening for employment purposes, compared with countries without restrictions. Conclusion: Countries with a high proportion of international migrants tend to have travel restrictions a finding that is relevant to migrant populations and travel medicine providers alike. Despite international pressure to remove travel restrictions, many countries continue to implement these restrictions for HIVpositive individuals on entry and stay. Since 2010, the United States and China have engaged in high profile removals. This may be indicative of an increasing trend, facilitated by various factors, including international advocacy and the setting of a UNAIDS goal to halve the number of countries with restrictions by 2015. ; Published version

Introduction: Increasingly, HIV-seropositive individuals cross international borders. HIV-related restrictions on entry, stay, and residence imposed by countries have important consequences for this mobile population. Our aim was to describe the geographical distribution of countries with travel restrictions and to examine the trends and characteristics of countries with such restrictions. Methods: In 2011, data presented to UNAIDS were used to establish a list of countries with and without HIV restrictions on entry, stay, and residence and to describe their geographical distribution. The following indicators were investigated to describe the country characteristics: population at mid-year, international migrants as a percentage of the population, Human Development Index, estimated HIV prevalence (age: 15 49), presence of a policy prohibiting HIV screening for general employment purposes, government and civil society responses to having non-discrimination laws/regulations which specify migrants/mobile populations, government and civil society responses to having laws/regulations/policies that present obstacles to effective HIV prevention, treatment, care, and support for migrants/mobile populations, Corruption Perception Index, and gross national income per capita. Results: HIV-related restrictions exist in 45 out of 193 WHO countries (23%) in all regions of the world. We found that the Eastern Mediterranean and Western Pacific Regions have the highest proportions of countries with these restrictions. Our analyses showed that countries that have opted for restrictions have the following characteristics: smaller populations, higher proportions of migrants in the population, lower HIV prevalence rates, and lack of legislation protecting people living with HIV from screening for employment purposes, compared with countries without restrictions. Conclusion: Countries with a high proportion of international migrants tend to have travel restrictions a finding that is relevant to migrant populations and travel medicine providers alike. Despite international pressure to remove travel restrictions, many countries continue to implement these restrictions for HIVpositive individuals on entry and stay. Since 2010, the United States and China have engaged in high profile removals. This may be indicative of an increasing trend, facilitated by various factors, including international advocacy and the setting of a UNAIDS goal to halve the number of countries with restrictions by 2015. ; Published version

Background Dengue-related illness is a leading cause of hospitalization and death in Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries, imposing a major economic burden on households, health systems, and governments. This study aims to assess the economic impact of hospitalized dengue cases on households in Chachoengsao province in eastern Thailand. Methods We conducted a prospective cost-of-illness study of hospitalized pediatric and adult dengue patients at three public hospitals. We examined all hospitalized dengue cases regardless of disease severity. Patients or their legal guardians were interviewed using a standard questionnaire to determine household-level medical and non-medical expenditures and income losses during the illness episode. Results Between March and September 2015, we recruited a total of 224 hospitalized patients (< 5 years, 4%; 5-14 years, 20%, 15-24 years, 36%, 25-34 years, 15%; 35-44 years, 10%; 45+ years, 12%), who were clinically diagnosed with dengue. The total cost of a hospitalized dengue case was higher for adult patients than pediatric patients, and was US$153.6 and US$166.3 for pediatric DF and DHF patients, respectively, and US$171.2 and US$226.1 for adult DF and DHF patients, respectively. The financial burden on households increased with the severity of dengue illness. Conclusions Although 74% of the households reported that the patient received free medical care, hospitalized dengue illness cost approximately 19-23% of the monthly household income. These results indicated that dengue imposed a substantial financial burden on households in Thailand where a great majority of the population was covered by the Universal Coverage Scheme for health care.

BACKGROUND: Dengue-related illness is a leading cause of hospitalization and death in Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries, imposing a major economic burden on households, health systems, and governments. This study aims to assess the economic impact of hospitalized dengue cases on households in Chachoengsao province in eastern Thailand. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cost-of-illness study of hospitalized pediatric and adult dengue patients at three public hospitals. We examined all hospitalized dengue cases regardless of disease severity. Patients or their legal guardians were interviewed using a standard questionnaire to determine household-level medical and non-medical expenditures and income losses during the illness episode. RESULTS: Between March and September 2015, we recruited a total of 224 hospitalized patients (<5 years, 4%; 5-14 years, 20%, 15-24 years, 36%, 25-34 years, 15%; 35-44 years, 10%; 45+ years, 12%), who were clinically diagnosed with dengue. The total cost of a hospitalized dengue case was higher for adult patients than pediatric patients, and was US$153.6 and US$166.3 for pediatric DF and DHF patients, respectively, and US$171.2 and US$226.1 for adult DF and DHF patients, respectively. The financial burden on households increased with the severity of dengue illness. CONCLUSIONS: Although 74% of the households reported that the patient received free medical care, hospitalized dengue illness cost approximately 19-23% of the monthly household income. These results indicated that dengue imposed a substantial financial burden on households in Thailand where a great majority of the population was covered by the Universal Coverage Scheme for health care.

A global response to the rapid spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is imperative in order to reduce mortality and morbidity as well as preventing a country's health system from collapse. Singapore showed exceptional leadership in the containment of the spread of the virus, however through April 2020 the country experienced exponential growth in the number of infections, particularly migrant workers living in dormitories. The following historical case study provides an overview of Singapore's country profile, their healthcare system and the country's non pharmaceutical measures taken to mitigate and contain the spread of COVID-19 in the first few months of the pandemic. We explore the impact COVID-19 had on Singapore's economy at that time and the implications of the resultant social and political disruptions. We conclude our study by using mathematical modelling to explore confirmed COVID-19 cases in Singapore's local community and those living in dormitories and use this data to forecast the progression of the epidemic in Singapore given the non-pharmaceutical interventions in place at that time. Our results indicate the COVID-19 outbreak in Singapore increased 3-fold the initial doubling rate of 22.5 days in the first 2 months of the outbreak to 6.7 days in the 5th month; We note a faster doubling rate of 4.9 days for those living in dormitories compared to a doubling rate of 13.5 days for the rest of the community.

A global response to the rapid spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is imperative in order to reduce mortality and morbidity as well as preventing a country's health system from collapse. Singapore showed exceptional leadership in the containment of the spread of the virus, however through April 2020 the country experienced exponential growth in the number of infections, particularly migrant workers living in dormitories. The following historical case study provides an overview of Singapore's country profile, their healthcare system and the country's non pharmaceutical measures taken to mitigate and contain the spread of COVID-19 in the first few months of the pandemic. We explore the impact COVID-19 had on Singapore's economy at that time and the implications of the resultant social and political disruptions. We conclude our study by using mathematical modelling to explore confirmed COVID-19 cases in Singapore's local community and those living in dormitories and use this data to forecast the progression of the epidemic in Singapore given the non-pharmaceutical interventions in place at that time. Our results indicate the COVID-19 outbreak in Singapore increased 3-fold the initial doubling rate of 22.5 days in the first 2 months of the outbreak to 6.7 days in the 5th month; We note a faster doubling rate of 4.9 days for those living in dormitories compared to a doubling rate of 13.5 days for the rest of the community.

BACKGROUND: Dengue has become a major public health problem in Sri Lanka with a considerable economic burden. As a response, in June, 2014, the Ministry of Health initiated a proactive vector control programme in partnership with military and police forces, known as the Civil-Military Cooperation (CIMIC) programme, that was targeted at high-risk Medical Officer of Health (MOH) divisions in the country. Evaluating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of population-level interventions is essential to guide public health planning and resource allocation decisions, particularly in resource-limited health-care settings. METHODS: Using an interrupted time series design with a non-linear extension, we evaluated the impact of vector control interventions from June 22, 2014, to Dec 29, 2016, in Panadura, a high-risk MOH division in Western Province, Sri Lanka. We used dengue notification and larval survey data to estimate the reduction in Breteau index and dengue incidence before and after the intervention using two separate models, adjusting for time-varying confounding variables (ie, rainfall, temperature, and the Oceanic Niño Index). We also assessed the cost and cost-effectiveness of the CIMIC programme from the perspective of the National Dengue Control Unit under the scenarios of different levels of hospitalisation of dengue cases (low [25%], medium [50%], and high [75%]) in terms of cost per disability-adjusted life-year averted (DALY). FINDINGS: Vector control interventions had a significant impact on combined Breteau index (relative risk reduction 0·43, 95% CI 0·26 to 0·70) and on dengue incidence (0·43, 0·28 to 0·67), the latter becoming prominent 2 months after the intervention onset. The mean number of averted dengue cases was estimated at 2192 (95% CI 1741 to 2643), and the total cost of the CIMIC programme at 2016 US$271 615. Personnel costs accounted for about 89% of the total cost. In the base-case scenario of moderate level of hospitalisation, the CIMIC programme was cost-saving with a probability of 70% under both the lowest ($453) and highest ($1686) cost-effectiveness thresholds, resulting in a net saving of $20 247 (95% CI -57 266 to 97 790) and averting 176 DALYs (133 to 226), leading to a cost of -$98 (-497 to 395) per DALY averted. This was also the case for the scenario with high hospitalisation levels (cost per DALY averted -$512, 95% CI -872 to -115) but with a higher probability of 99%. In the scenario with low hospitalisation levels (cost per DALY averted $690, 143 to 1379), although the CIMIC programme was cost-ineffective at the lowest threshold with a probability of 77%, it was cost-effective at the highest threshold with a probability of 99%. INTERPRETATION: This study suggests that communities affected by dengue can benefit from investments in vector control if interventions are implemented rigorously and coordinated well across sectors. By doing so, it is possible to reduce the disease and economic burden of dengue in endemic settings. FUNDING: None.

Background: Dengue has become a major public health problem in Sri Lanka with a considerable economic burden. As a response, in June, 2014, the Ministry of Health initiated a proactive vector control programme in partnership with military and police forces, known as the Civil-Military Cooperation (CIMIC) programme, that was targeted at high-risk Medical Officer of Health (MOH) divisions in the country. Evaluating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of population-level interventions is essential to guide public health planning and resource allocation decisions, particularly in resource-limited health-care settings. Methods: Using an interrupted time series design with a non-linear extension, we evaluated the impact of vector control interventions from June 22, 2014, to Dec 29, 2016, in Panadura, a high-risk MOH division in Western Province, Sri Lanka. We used dengue notification and larval survey data to estimate the reduction in Breteau index and dengue incidence before and after the intervention using two separate models, adjusting for time-varying confounding variables (ie, rainfall, temperature, and the Oceanic Niño Index). We also assessed the cost and cost-effectiveness of the CIMIC programme from the perspective of the National Dengue Control Unit under the scenarios of different levels of hospitalisation of dengue cases (low [25%], medium [50%], and high [75%]) in terms of cost per disability-adjusted life-year averted (DALY). Findings: Vector control interventions had a significant impact on combined Breteau index (relative risk reduction 0·43, 95% CI 0·26 to 0·70) and on dengue incidence (0·43, 0·28 to 0·67), the latter becoming prominent 2 months after the intervention onset. The mean number of averted dengue cases was estimated at 2192 (95% CI 1741 to 2643), and the total cost of the CIMIC programme at 2016 US$271 615. Personnel costs accounted for about 89% of the total cost. In the base-case scenario of moderate level of hospitalisation, the CIMIC programme was cost-saving with a probability of 70% under both the lowest ($453) and highest ($1686) cost-effectiveness thresholds, resulting in a net saving of $20 247 (95% CI −57 266 to 97 790) and averting 176 DALYs (133 to 226), leading to a cost of −$98 (−497 to 395) per DALY averted. This was also the case for the scenario with high hospitalisation levels (cost per DALY averted −$512, 95% CI −872 to −115) but with a higher probability of 99%. In the scenario with low hospitalisation levels (cost per DALY averted $690, 143 to 1379), although the CIMIC programme was cost-ineffective at the lowest threshold with a probability of 77%, it was cost-effective at the highest threshold with a probability of 99%. Interpretation: This study suggests that communities affected by dengue can benefit from investments in vector control if interventions are implemented rigorously and coordinated well across sectors. By doing so, it is possible to reduce the disease and economic burden of dengue in endemic settings. Funding: None.

Warming temperatures may increase the geographic spread of vector-borne diseases into temperate areas. Although a tropical mosquito-borne viral disease, a dengue outbreak occurred in Madeira, Portugal, in 2012; the first in Europe since 1920s. This outbreak emphasizes the potential for dengue re-emergence in Europe given changing climates. We present estimates of dengue epidemic potential using vectorial capacity (VC) based on historic and projected temperature (1901–2099). VC indicates the vectors' ability to spread disease among humans. We calculated temperature-dependent VC for Europe, highlighting 10 European cities and three non-European reference cities. Compared with the tropics, Europe shows pronounced seasonality and geographical heterogeneity. Although low, VC during summer is currently sufficient for dengue outbreaks in Southern Europe to commence–if sufficient vector populations (either Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus) were active and virus were introduced. Under various climate change scenarios, the seasonal peak and time window for dengue epidemic potential increases during the 21st century. Our study maps dengue epidemic potential in Europe and identifies seasonal time windows when major cities are most conducive for dengue transmission from 1901 to 2099. Our findings illustrate, that besides vector control, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions crucially reduces the future epidemic potential of dengue in Europe. ; This study is part of the DengueTools project funded by the European Union Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant agreement no. 282589. Originally included in thesis 1 as submitted manuscript.

Testing for detecting the infection by SARS-CoV-2 is the bridge between the lockdown and the opening of society. In this paper we modelled and simulated a test-trace-and-quarantine strategy to control the COVID-19 outbreak in the State of Sao Paulo, Brasil. The State of Sao Paulo failed to adopt an effective social distancing strategy, reaching at most 59% in late March and started to relax the measures in late June, dropping to 41% in 08 August. Therefore, Sao Paulo relies heavily on a massive testing strategy in the attempt to control the epidemic. Two alternative strategies combined with economic evaluations were simulated. One strategy included indiscriminately testing the entire population of the State, reaching more than 40 million people at a maximum cost of 2.25 billion USD, that would reduce the total number of cases by the end of 2020 by 90%. The second strategy investigated testing only symptomatic cases and their immediate contacts - this strategy reached a maximum cost of 150 million USD but also reduced the number of cases by 90%. The conclusion is that if the State of Sao Paulo had decided to adopt the simulated strategy on April the 1st, it would have been possible to reduce the total number of cases by 90% at a cost of 2.25 billion US dollars for the indiscriminate strategy but at a much smaller cost of 125 million US dollars for the selective testing of symptomatic cases and their contacts.

BACKGROUND: While the COVID-19 outbreak in China now appears suppressed, Europe and the USA have become the epicentres, both reporting many more deaths than China. Responding to the pandemic, Sweden has taken a different approach aiming to mitigate, not suppress, community transmission, by using physical distancing without lockdowns. Here we contrast the consequences of different responses to COVID-19 within Sweden, the resulting demand for care, intensive care, the death tolls and the associated direct healthcare related costs. METHODS: We used an age-stratified health-care demand extended SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered) compartmental model for all municipalities in Sweden, and a radiation model for describing inter-municipality mobility. The model was calibrated against data from municipalities in the Stockholm healthcare region. RESULTS: Our scenario with moderate to strong physical distancing describes well the observed health demand and deaths in Sweden up to the end of May 2020. In this scenario, the intensive care unit (ICU) demand reaches the pre-pandemic maximum capacity just above 500 beds. In the counterfactual scenario, the ICU demand is estimated to reach ∼20 times higher than the pre-pandemic ICU capacity. The different scenarios show quite different death tolls up to 1 September, ranging from 5000 to 41 000, excluding deaths potentially caused by ICU shortage. Additionally, our statistical analysis of all causes excess mortality indicates that the number of deaths attributable to COVID-19 could be increased by 40% (95% confidence interval: 0.24, 0.57). CONCLUSION: The results of this study highlight the impact of different combinations of non-pharmaceutical interventions, especially moderate physical distancing in combination with more effective isolation of infectious individuals, on reducing deaths, health demands and lowering healthcare costs. In less effective mitigation scenarios, the demand on ICU beds would rapidly exceed capacity, showing the tight interconnection between the healthcare demand and physical distancing in the society. These findings have relevance for Swedish policy and response to the COVID-19 pandemic and illustrate the importance of maintaining the level of physical distancing for a longer period beyond the study period to suppress or mitigate the impacts from the pandemic.

Given the speed of air travel, diseases even with a short viremia such as dengue can be easily exported to dengue naive areas within 24 hours. We set out to estimate the risk of dengue virus introductions via travelers into Europe and number of secondary autochthonous cases as a result of the introduction. We applied mathematical modeling to estimate the number of dengue-viremic air passengers from 16 dengue-endemic countries to 27 European countries, taking into account the incidence of dengue in the exporting countries, travel volume and the probability of being viremic at the time of travel. Our models estimate a range from zero to 167 air passengers who are dengue-viremic at the time of travel from dengue endemic countries to each of the 27 receiving countries in one year. Germany receives the highest number of imported dengue-viremic air passengers followed by France and the United Kingdom. Our findings estimate 10 autochthonous secondary asymptomatic and symptomatic dengue infections, caused by the expected 124 infected travelers who arrived in Italy in 2012. The risk of onward transmission in Europe is reassuringly low, except where Aedes aegypti is present. ; HealthTheme of the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Community ; project ZikaPLAN - European Union's Horizon research and innovation programme ; International Research Consortium on Dengue Risk Assessment Management and Surveillance (IDAMS) (European Commission) ; Univ Sao Paulo, Sch Med, Sao Paulo, Brazil ; London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, London, England ; Univ Derby, Coll Nat & Life Sci, Derby, England ; Fundacao Getulio Vargas, Sch Appl Math, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil ; Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz, Programme Sci Computat, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil ; Univ Fed Sao Paulo, Hosp Sao Paulo, Escola Paulista Med, Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil ; St Michaels Hosp, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Inst, Toronto, ON, Canada ; Umea Univ, Dept Publ Hlth & Clin Med Epidemiol & Global Hlth, SE-90185 Umea, Sweden ; Harvard Med Sch, Boston, MA USA ; Boston Childrens Hosp, Boston, MA USA ; Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford, England ; Heidelberg Univ, Inst Publ Hlth, Heidelberg, Germany ; Nanyang Technol Univ, Lee Kong Chian Sch Med, Singapore, Singapore ; Univ Fed Sao Paulo, Hosp Sao Paulo, Escola Paulista Med, Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil ; PEC: 282589 ; ZikaPLAN: 734584 ; IDAMS: 21803 ; Web of Science

INTRODUCTION: Dengue has emerged as a significant public health problem in Sri Lanka. Historically surveillance was passive, with mandatory dengue notifications based on clinical diagnosis with only limited laboratory confirmation. To obtain more accurate data on the disease burden of dengue, we set up a laboratory-based enhanced sentinel surveillance system in Colombo District. Here we describe the study design and report our findings of enhanced surveillance in the years 2012-2014. METHODS: Three outpatient clinics and three government hospitals in Colombo District that covered most of the Colombo metropolitan area were selected for the sentinel surveillance system. Up to 60 patients per week presenting with an undifferentiated fever were enrolled. Acute blood samples from each patient were tested by dengue specific PCR, NS1 ELISA and IgM ELISA. A sub-set of samples was sent to Duke-NUS Singapore for quality assurance, virus isolation and serotyping. Trained medical research assistants used a standardized case report form to record clinical and epidemiological data. Clinical diagnoses by the clinicians-in-charge were recorded for hospitalized cases. RESULTS: Of 3,127 febrile cases, 43.6% were PCR and/or NS1 positive for dengue. A high proportion of lab confirmed dengue was observed from inpatients (IPD) (53.9%) compared to outpatient (clinics in hospitals and general practice) (7.6%). Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) was diagnosed in 11% of patients at the time of first contact, and the median day of illness at time of presentation to the sentinel sites was 4. Dengue serotype 1 was responsible for 85% of the cases and serotype 4 for 15%. The sensitivity and specificity of the clinicians' presumptive diagnosis of dengue was 84% and 34%, respectively. CONCLUSION: DENV-1, and to a lesser degree DENV-4, infection were responsible for a high proportion of febrile illnesses in Colombo in the years 2012 to 2014. Clinicians' diagnoses were associated with high sensitivity, but laboratory confirmation is required to enhance specificity.