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Current demographic trends raise new questions, challenges and controversies. Comparing demographic trends in Europe and the NAME-region (North Africa and the Middle East), this book demonstrates how population change interacts with changing economic landscapes, social distinctions and political realities. A variety of drivers contribute to demographic change in the various regions and countries considered, such as family policies, economic realities, the impact of educational differentials and the attitudes towards marriage. On the macro-level the new trends are restructuring the age composition of populations and are reshaping the life courses of individuals and families. In turn, the impact demographic forces have on the organisation of labour markets, on fiscal policies, on the care of the elderly, on migration flows and on political changes can be quite radical. Chapter 1 of this book is freely available as a downloadable Open Access PDF under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 3.0 license. https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/tandfbis/rt-files/docs/Open+Access+Chapters/9781472439543_oachapter1.pdf

The demographic transition is a universal phenomenon. All regions of the world experience a change from high levels of mortality and fertility to low levels. The onset and pace of the demographic transition vary between regions and countries because of differences in timing of events and conditions that trigger the transition. As a consequence, we observe diverging trends in population growth and ageing around the world. The paper shows that transitions in mortality, fertility and migration have several features in common. Demographic transitions are intertwined with science and technology, the economy, cultural change and social and political processes. The interaction between these processes take place at the level of the individual, not at the population level. The human desire for a long and fulfilling life is the main driver of demographic change. Science and technology provide instruments to control demographic processes but the use of these instruments is conditioned by economic and cultural change. Individuals are more likely to act if they are aware that they can influence the outcome of their action, the outcome is beneficial and they have the instruments to exercise control. The pace of a transition depends on (a) diffusion processes that govern the transmission of values, preferences, norms and practices and (b) inertia in a population due to its composition. Keywords: Demographic transition, path dependence, diffusion, agency, demographic dividends

Dans cet article, nous présentons un modèle de microsimulation qui permet de générer des histoires de vie individuelles cohérentes avec les projections de cohortes obtenues par le modèle multi-états à composantes de cohorte. Le modèle de microsimulation peut prendre en compte des différences individuelles que le modèle à composantes de cohorte ne peut traiter. Ces différences sont dues à une association de facteurs systématiques et de facteurs aléatoires. Nous nous intéressons principalement aux facteurs aléatoires. Le modèle de microsimulation utilise un modèle de survie de cohorte multi-états à temps continu et des tirages aléatoires à partir de distributions de temps d'attente exponentielles par morceaux. Si on prend comme paramètres des distributions les intensités de transition du modèle de survie de cohorte, les histoires de vie individuelles sont cohérentes avec les projections de cohorte. Les histoires de vie apportent un éclairage sur la dynamique démographique que la méthode des composantes ne peut proposer.

At present there is no unified treatment, drawing together models to allow a consistent and reliable set of migration flows, across countries. This text seeks to do exactly that, potentially improving policies, planning and understanding about migration processes worldwide, via the presentation of migration estimation and modeling techniques. These modeling techniques are explored from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives. The vital concepts such as missing data and collection methods (and their possible harmonization) are discussed in depth, and there are whole chapters dedicated to bot