Suchergebnisse

Normative futures research is typically utility-oriented, global in approach, inevitably biased, & likely itself to affect the future; its predictions may be resisted as a means of opposing changes. Various approaches are reviewed: systematic generation of alternative paths to the future, extrapolation from current trends, historical analysis & analogy, & collective opinion surveys. Extrapolation reveals such probable developments as a shift from problems of inadequate technology to problems of adjusting to overly-successful technology. Several fundamental dilemmas can be identified, imposed by continued economic growth, freedom of technological innovation, reduced individual liberty through governmental regulation, the disappearance of socially supported work roles, & the grave problems of either sharing natural resources equitably with less-developed nations or not doing so. Further application of alternative futures considerations also reveals the possibility of revolutionary changes in society, in particular the replacement of the approach to life characteristic of the Industrial Revolution with a new paradigm. Continued futures research needs to include exploratory investigations, research focused on alternative approaches or fundamental social problems--& explicitly normative research--in order to remain meaningful in the face of these new trends. 2 Tables. Modified HA.