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AbstractTimes of major change can pose extra‐ordinary challenges to any organisation. Case studies investigating how companies had faced the challenges of a major change in the previous four or five years, and especially how they attempted to prepare their managers for their new roles, revealed that many were ill‐equipped to face the task. One particular result suggested that firms that had relied only on their existing management team and/or on internal promotions had not fared as well as those for whom circumstances permitted the recruitment of new managers to key posts. This observation seems to run counter to the management dictum that firms should always endeavour to hold onto their experienced staff. A simple system dynamics model of a firm's "skills inventory" sheds light on this apparent paradox. The model indicates that in times of stability or slow/incremental change, retaining existing staff is indeed very important. However, in times of major change, as the obsolescence rate of the firm's existing skill base increases rapidly, importing critical skills with new recruits may be the only realistic way of boosting the skill‐base to the necessary levels. This situation is likely to have important competitiveness consequences for firms with traditionally low staff attrition rates, where growth is not creating new post opportunities, or in areas where the external recruitment market offers only limited access to new appointees with advanced skills. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

AbstractThis article examines the role that building and using a system dynamics model plays in developing consensus within management teams facing key strategic decisions: A shared view emerges within the team as individual views of the company, its industry, and the socioeconomic climate are articulated and compared. Examples are given based on two actual consulting assignments in which differing views concerning the competitive environment and the general business outlook initially pointed to quite different strategies. The emergence of consensus was considered a major benefit in addition to the forecasts and quantitative evaluations the model provided. In its analysis and examples, this article emphasizes both the "hard" benefits of forecasts and an objective framework for quantitative evaluations and the "soft" benefits of building consensus within management teams.

AbstractSystem dynamics (SD) has been shown to be a powerful strategic analysis approach, but it can also be a costly one. If there is an insistence that to have any validity and value, all models have to be constructed largely from scratch, then the time, expertise and costs involved appear, effectively, to preclude their widespread use in small–medium enterprise (SME) applications. This article describes "proof‐of‐concept" trials with a simulator based on a user‐parameterised generic model that could offer affordable and manageable access to SD modelling for SMEs. While not pretending to provide quantitative predictions, the simulator does provide managers with a vehicle to challenge the validity of their mental models as their firm undergoes major change, to gain insights into the future challenges, and maybe enhance their confidence through "pre‐experiencing" future scenarios. The trials concluded that user‐parameterised generic models do have potential value in this kind of usage, and may therefore be the only viable option for many smaller firms to benefit from system dynamics modelling and scenario planning. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.