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US policy toward North Korea has reached a dead end. Built upon a foundation of dubious assumptions, the Obama administration's approach—whether called "strategic patience" or by some other name—has failed to achieve any progress toward US objectives in the region and no longer serves US foreign policy and national security interests. During the administration's time in office, the North's nuclear and missile threat has expanded, the danger of periodic tensions and unintended escalation on the peninsula has grown and little or nothing has been accomplished in terms of effectively dealing with non-security challenges such as Pyongyang's human rights violations. Moreover, the North has managed to improve its economy while at the same time moving forward with its nuclear and missile programs. In fact, by adopting a policy that in effect stands back from the fray, the United States has diminished its status as the arbiter of peace and security issues on the peninsula. ; NAVSUP Fleet Logistics Center San Diego ; John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation ; Naval Postgraduate School's Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction (PASCC) ; NAVSUP Fleet Logistics Center San Diego ; John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation ; Naval Postgraduate School's Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction (PASCC) ; Funded by Naval Postgraduate School ; NAVSUP Fleet Logistics Center San Diego Grant No. N00244-14-1-0024 ; NAVSUP Fleet Logistics Center San Diego Grant No. N00244-14-1-0024

The US-Korea Institute (USKI) at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) is pleased to report on the activities and outcomes of our North Korea's Nuclear Futures project made possible through grant funding from the Naval Postgraduate School's Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction (PASCC) in the amount of $225,533.52 from June 5, 2014 to November 29, 2015. We thank PASCC for its generous support, which enabled us to contribute to efforts to analyze the future of North Korea's nuclear deterrent and to encourage work on this topic in the United States and overseas, specifically in Northeast Asia. Our project was designed to examine the emergence of North Korea as a small nuclear power, a process that has been underway since 2009, if not earlier. When the project was first proposed, North Korea had just conducted two long-range rocket tests in 2012 and its third nuclear test in February 2013, highlighting that trend. However, it was unclear where it would lead in the future, namely the size of North Korea's nuclear deterrent, Pyongyang's thinking on its nuclear strategy, regional and international implications of a growing nuclear force and possible policy responses of the United States, its allies and the international community. ; This publication results from research supported by the Naval Postgraduate School's Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction (PASCC) via Assistance Grant/Agreement No. N00244-14-1-0024 awarded by the NAVSUP Fleet Logistics Center San Diego (NAVSUP FLC San Diego). ; Future Directions in the DPRK's Nuclear Weapons Program:Three Scenarios for 2020 by David Albright North Korea's Nuclear Futures:Technology and Strategy by Joel S. Wit and Sun Young Ahn The Future of North Korean Nuclear Delivery Systems by John Schilling and Henry Kan North Korea's Development of a Nuclear Weapons Strategy by Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr. North Korea's Evolving Nuclear Strategy by Shane Smith Alliance Military Strategy in the Shadow of North Korea's Nuclear Futures by Van Jackson Nuclear North Korea:How Will It Behave? by Robert Carlin and Robert Jervis The Future Impact of North Korea's Emerging Nuclear Deterrent on Nuclear Nonproliferation by Leonard S. Spector Implications for US Extended Deterrenceand Assurance in East Asia by Shane Smith Positive Economic Inducements in Future Nuclear Negotiations with North Korea by Bradley O. Babson Sanctions' Role in Dealing with the North Korean Problem by Joseph M. DeThomas Trapped in No-Man's-Land: The Future of US Policy Toward North Korea by Joel S. Wit ; This publication results from research supported by the Naval Postgraduate School's Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction (PASCC) via Assistance Grant/Agreement No. N00244-14-1-0024 awarded by the NAVSUP Fleet Logistics Center San Diego (NAVSUP FLC San Diego).

In the past, foreign policy and security concerns have trumped any efforts to reform the North Korean economy. Today, the linkage between security and economic policies is being reconsidered as part of a larger debate in the North Korean leadership that has already transformed the country in fundamental ways. Despite renewed tensions with the United States, North Korea has begun to implement important economic reforms. Moreover, underneath the cover of the ever-present 'military-first' slogan in the controlled media, a debate is taking place between 'reformers' and 'conservatives' over whet.