Suchergebnisse

This paper provides the text of a Blake Dawson Waldron Public Lecture delivered in Canberra on May 2, 2006. In the paper a stock-take is provided of Australia's current policies on immigration and population, and suggestions are offered as to how these should change in future. It is argued that Australian immigration has developed to become a major national policy achievement, welltailored for the national interest and Australian values. Its principles and mechanisms, especially its points system, are now being emulated in other countries such as the UK. Incorporation of expanded and skilled immigration within wider population policies has been a further step forward in Australia in recent times. But the paper also argues that there are still significant flaws that are not being dealt with adequately, and pressures are present which could change policy to the nation's detriment. These problems range from the inhumane treatment of refugees through to the excessive growth of temporary entry for skilled guest workers. The paper opposes any major low skill guest-worker program and strongly advocates growing regional and global engagement with management of international people movements. ; This item was commisioned by Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, ANU

Australia's population is likely to undergo dramatic change in the second and third decades of next century. Instead of being a young country by OECD standards, significant population ageing is now predicted for Australia. This will reduce labour force participation and flexibility, reduce savings and investment, and raise social expenditure while reducing public revenues. Intergenerational politics will sharpen severely. Immigration has helped keep Australia younger in the past. But some demographers assert it cannot do so in the future, a view accepted by Government and used as a justification for lower immigration. This paper argues that the Government view and its demographic underpinnings are wrong. Once deficiencies in conventional demographic methodology are allowed for, a much more significant impact of immigration is describable. These corrections involve migrant composition, projecting migration rates not levels, properly calculating dependency ratios and incorporating budget costs. The result is to show the potential to halve the public costs of population ageing. This makes immigration an important complement to other policies for addressing demographic change.

Collection of three papers: * Immigration: the Australian Way. Keynote Address to the National Conference of the Federation of Ethnic Communities Councils of Australia, Brisbane, 20 November, 1998. Higher levels of immigration will increasingly be recognised as good politics and as in the national interest. * Malthus and Australia: the Malthus Sermon. Keynote address to the National Academies' Forum Malthus and his legacy. National Library of Australia Canberra, 17 September 1998. The problems of population and poverty are those of institutions and distribution, not of resources and technology. * A global Sydney needs migration. Background paper prepared for the Asia-Pacific Cities Summit Brisbane, 28 February-3 March 1999. Sydney is primary port of entry for new arrivals to Australia. It also has significant expansion costs and environmental constraints. For this reason, NSW Premier Carr, alone among State leaders, has supported low immigration for Australia. Mr Carr is mistaken.

This paper will characterise the major economic dimensions of Australian research into economic aspects of immigration. This will cover macro-economics (labour markets, current account, government budgets), long-run growth (productivity, real income) and social economics (distribution of income and wealth, discrimination) and discuss the major gaps remaining for informing Australian policy (ageing, environment, regional distribution). It will speculate on the likely influence of research on future policy and may even bravely speculate on lessons from Australia for Europe and vice versa

A larger population results in a larger economy. A greater number of people generate more demand for goods and services and provide an increase in the number of workers available to meet that demand. Since immigration has contributed a major part of Australia's population growth over the two centuries since European settlement, it follows that it has also contributed substantially to creating the Australian economy as it is today. A summary measure of the economy is gross domestic product (GDP). Australia's GDP at the end of the 20th Century is approaching $600billion. Migrants and the children of migrants have provided almost 60 percent of post-war growth in the Australian workforce. Without migration it is likely that the economy might have been as small as one half of its current size, a much reduced presence in the world economy. Of course while GDP is relevant, and is seen by many as a measure of the contribution of migration to 'development', there is much more that is of interest in the linkage even from immigration to the economy, let alone to broader issues. In the long-run a crucial question is whether immigration also increases per capita income and not just aggregate national income. There is also the question of how income growth is distributed, including between existing residents and newcomers, and effects on broader social considerations, including demographic ageing. In the shorter-term there are basic economic issues such as the implications of immigration for unemployment, training, public outlays, the balance of payments, wages and inflation. There are also some interesting questions concerning the linkages from the economy to immigration itself, both through the motivation for migration and through the influence the economy has on government and its migration policies. These are the issues that are looked at in this article.

Broadcasting is a key sector in modern society, not only economically but, more than most industries, culturally, socially and politically. Correspondingly it is a sector that is more than most subject to government regulation. It is also a sector that is more than most linked to the digital revolution in technology at the core of the "new global knowledge economy". It is therefore an area of great interest. The economics of broadcasting focuses on the nature of broadcasting markets and the nature government involvement in those markets. The markets are primarily based on demand for broadcasting programs and are heavily influenced by the technology of program delivery. They are also profoundly influenced by y government intervention in these markets, including involvement for non-economic reasons.

Whose preferences determine the tradeoff between security and civilian output in deciding upon budget allocations to defence? This paper considers the role that consumer preferences might play in influencing military spending. We propose normative criteria to judge the economic or political efficiency of defence provision at a given time, and test them using Australian survey-based micro-data. Our results suggest that the political system has not delivered a simple social-choice translation of individual preferences into collective outcomes, nor has it delivered results consistent with simple majority-voting median preferences.

Whose preferences determine the tradeoff between security and civilian output in deciding upon budget allocations to defence? This paper considers the role that consumer preferences might play in influencing military spending. We propose normative criteria to judge the economic or political efficiency of defence provision at a given time, and test them using Australian survey-based micro-data. Our results suggest that the political system has not delivered a simple social-choice translation of individual preferences into collective outcomes, nor has it delivered results consistent with simple majority-voting median preferences.

This paper discusses the political structures and leadership required in Australia in facing the challenges of the 21st century. It argues that the substance of good policy for the way forward is actually quite clear. It involves better investment in knowledge and innovation to underpin sustainable and fair growth. But four attitudinal conditions are identified as restricting implementation of good policy in Australia. These are: short-termism, divided responsibility, risk aversion and lack of trust. Changes needed in political settings and structures to address these barriers and to facilitate exercise of constructive public leadership are defined. A reform agenda that ranges from a New Deal in federalism to opening up party pre-selection is provided. The paper was commissioned for a "Futures Summit" held in Melbourne in May 2005, convened by the Australian Davos Connection, the Australian affiliate of the World Economic Forum.

This paper examines two key dimensions of the impact of immigration for Australia and related policy aspects. One is sub-national and the other is national. They are, first, the regional location aspects of immigration and, second, the aggregate unemployment implications of immigration. These are chosen so as to focus on two important issues that condition public attitudes towards immigration. In relation to the first, there is a common positive view that channelling migration towards regional areas assists regional development and reduces pressure on metropolitan areas. The paper reviews regional concepts embodied in Australian immigration policy and the ways in which visa arrangements have implemented policies geared towards the regional dispersal of immigrants. Using official data, it discusses the demographic impacts of these policies and, in particular, considers the extent to which immigrants to regional Australia remain there over the longer term. In relation to unemployment, a common concern is that immigrants take jobs from local workers. The paper examines—using statistical regression methodology—the relationship between immigration and national aggregate unemployment in Australia. It evaluates the net consequences of immigration for both existing residents and new arrivals together. The paper concludes that, with good policy design in each case, regional location encouragement can be effective for immigrants and that immigrants need not take more jobs than they create. The analysis demonstrates that mixed-methods approaches to important social science issues can be productive, and helpful also for policy. Evidence, such as that presented in this paper, offers a powerful basis from which to counter negative public and political discourses surrounding immigration in contemporary Australia. ; This work was partly supported by the Australian Council of Learned Academies from the Australian Research Council Grant [LS120100001 "Securing Australia's Future: Project 1 – Australia's Comparative Advantage"].