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This edited volume provides a timely overview of nonlinear estimation techniques, offering new methods and insights into nonlinear time series analysis. The focus is on such topics as state-space model and the identification issue, use of Markov Switching Models and Smooth Transition Models to analyze economic series, and how best to distinguish between competing nonlinear models. Most economic theory suggests that the economic relationships among economic variables in the real world are fairly complex and nonlinear. Nonlinear models are necessary to capture these important channels through which economic variables can influence each other and various policies can affect economic activities. This volume features cutting-edge research from leading academics in economics, finance, and business management. The principles and techniques used here will appeal to econometricians, finance professors teaching quantitative finance, researchers, and graduate students interested in learning how to apply advances in nonlinear time series modeling to solve complex problems in economics and finance

Keynes' analysis of the instability of investment and the businesss cycle emphasizes the effects of uncertainty and shifting expectations on investment decisions. Keynes' focus on historical/ qualitative change and on the essentially incalculable nature of expectations in a world of uncertainty distinguishes his analysis from the more determinate neoclassical world in which economic agents engage in an optimizing search for equilibrium subject to well-defined constraints. However, although Keynes demonstrates the possibility of crises in capitalist economy, his analysis of actual cyclical crisis tendencies in Chapter 22 of the General Theory suffers from an inadequate treatment of how the wage struggle and capitalist production relations influence the actual profitability of investment. In analyzing Keynes' business cycle theory it is crucial to clearly distinguish Keynes' short run, mathematical model of the factors which make crises possible from Keynes' historical/qualitative theory of the business cycle.

AbstractA casual inspection of a graph of volatility indexes over time indicates that volatility has undergone infrequent, but significant, shifts in its average level. The purpose of this article is to test for multiple structural breaks in the mean level of market volatility measured by the VIX and VXO, and to identify statistically the dates of these mean shifts. We find evidence of three distinct periods: pre‐1992, 1992–1997, and post‐1997. We find that the mean volatility, as well as its standard deviation, was lowest during 1992–1997. Our findings provide statistical evidence consistent with popular beliefs that market volatility changes over time.

We investigate the order of integration of aggregate wage, price and productivity measures for the USA. Our investigation differs from previous studies as we employ recently developed tests that allow, under the alternative hypothesis, for structural change between periods in which the data are integrated of order zero, I(0), and integrated of order one, I(1). The tests reveal that some of the time series examined are neither exclusively I(0) or I(1) and that in fact breaks in the order of integration have occurred, suggesting the need for caution when undertaking Granger‐causality tests involving these variables.

AbstractThis study investigates the relative strength in mutual fund performance by employing three different empirical methods to analyze the profitability of twenty trading strategies, based on varying evaluation horizons and investment periods. Specifically, we test for positive persistence in fund performance by focusing on the optimal weighting of past performance information. Counter to an earlier study on relative strength of fund performance, this study's results do not support the decay of performance persistence after one year. Rather, we find persistent abnormal fund returns over a one to three year investment period based on a three to four year evaluation horizon. In addition, results show that relative strength in fund performance is directly related to persistence in superior performing funds rather than a function of persistence in inferior performing funds.

AbstractSimilar to previous studies, we investigate the relation between past and future fund performance. However, we deviate from previous studies by investigating the relation between persistent fund performance and four systematic factors: size, goal, load, and management fee. Results indicate no consistent relation between fund size and persistent fund performance. The existence of a sales charge does not affect persistent fund performance. The goal of a fund does affect persistent fund performance, with high‐risk maximum capital gain funds' demonstrating a strong positive persistence in abnormal returns. In addition, funds with low management fees demonstrate significantly positive persistent fund performance, while funds with high management fees demonstrate significantly negative persistent fund performance. Further research into the relation between persistent fund performance and maximum capital gain funds indicates persistent fund performance in both inferior‐ and superior‐performing funds. However, persistence in funds with low management fees occurs only in funds with superior past performance.

AbstractThis paper re‐examines the evidence rejecting the expectations theory of the term structure. Weekly, monthly, and quarterly data on three‐ and six‐month interest rates are employed for five subperiods—1910–1914, 1919–1933, 1934–1959, 1959–1978, and 1979–1989. Econometric techniques are used to correct standard errors for overlapping data and for heteroscedasticity. Findings indicate that the weekly and monthly data are consistent with a weak form of the expectations hypothesis in which the yield curve has substantial predictive power for short rates for each subperiod except 1934–1959 and 1979–1989. Results for the period before the founding of the Federal Reserve indicate that a strong version of the expectations hypothesis cannot be rejected in which the joint hypothesis of rational expectations and expectations theory is hypothesized. The use of cointegration tests and an error‐correction model framework to determine whether short and long rates have a common stochastic trend indicates that long and short rates are cointegrated.

AbstractThis paper examines the dynamic relationship between interest rates, inflation and economic growth using a long dataset for the UK. The approach adopted enables us to identify structural breaks in the dynamic system (vector autoregression (VAR)). We find interest rates respond much more strongly to growth and inflation over recent decades, and forecast error variance decomposition analysis indicates there is increasing interconnectedness between the variables in recent years. Economic policymakers need to carefully monitor the linkages between these variables and be prepared to adjust their monetary policy tools when faced with structural changes.

International audience ; This study seeks to address whether Bitcoin ever match or even replace gold as a safe haven. To this end, we use a dynamic Markov-switching copula model to test the complementarity and substitutability among Bitcoin and gold within two risk scenarios (i.e., low-and high-risk regimes). Our results reveal a positive and strong correlation between gold and Bitcoin returns coinciding with specific economic and political events. Gold and Bitcoin benefit from the same economic conditions. This suggests that gold and Bitcoin are likely to be complementary, rather than in competition with each other. Gold could act as a diversifier for investors in digital assets. But the Bitcoin have a lot to teach gold in terms of the efficient transfer of value.

International audience ; This study seeks to address whether Bitcoin ever match or even replace gold as a safe haven. To this end, we use a dynamic Markov-switching copula model to test the complementarity and substitutability among Bitcoin and gold within two risk scenarios (i.e., low-and high-risk regimes). Our results reveal a positive and strong correlation between gold and Bitcoin returns coinciding with specific economic and political events. Gold and Bitcoin benefit from the same economic conditions. This suggests that gold and Bitcoin are likely to be complementary, rather than in competition with each other. Gold could act as a diversifier for investors in digital assets. But the Bitcoin have a lot to teach gold in terms of the efficient transfer of value.

International audience ; This paper provides an innovative perspective on the role of gold as a hedge and safe haven. We use a quantile-on-quantile regression approach to capture the dependence structure between gold returns and changes in uncertainty under different gold market conditions, while considering the nuances of uncertainty levels. To capture the core uncertainty effects on gold returns, a dynamic factor model is used. This technique allows summarizing the impact of six different indexes (namely economic, macroeconomic, microeconomic, monetary policy, financial and political uncertainties) within one aggregate measure of uncertainty. In doing so, we show that the gold's role as a hedge and safe haven cannot be assumed to hold at all times. This ability seems to be sensitive to the gold's various market states (bearish, normal or bullish) and to whether the uncertainty is low, middle or high. Interestingly, we find a positive and strong relationship between gold returns and the uncertainty composite indicator when the uncertainty attains its highest level and under normal gold market scenario. This suggests that holding a diversified portfolio composed of gold could help protecting against exposure to uncertain risks.

International audience ; This paper provides an innovative perspective on the role of gold as a hedge and safe haven. We use a quantile-on-quantile regression approach to capture the dependence structure between gold returns and changes in uncertainty under different gold market conditions, while considering the nuances of uncertainty levels. To capture the core uncertainty effects on gold returns, a dynamic factor model is used. This technique allows summarizing the impact of six different indexes (namely economic, macroeconomic, microeconomic, monetary policy, financial and political uncertainties) within one aggregate measure of uncertainty. In doing so, we show that the gold's role as a hedge and safe haven cannot be assumed to hold at all times. This ability seems to be sensitive to the gold's various market states (bearish, normal or bullish) and to whether the uncertainty is low, middle or high. Interestingly, we find a positive and strong relationship between gold returns and the uncertainty composite indicator when the uncertainty attains its highest level and under normal gold market scenario. This suggests that holding a diversified portfolio composed of gold could help protecting against exposure to uncertain risks.