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AbstractA casual inspection of a graph of volatility indexes over time indicates that volatility has undergone infrequent, but significant, shifts in its average level. The purpose of this article is to test for multiple structural breaks in the mean level of market volatility measured by the VIX and VXO, and to identify statistically the dates of these mean shifts. We find evidence of three distinct periods: pre‐1992, 1992–1997, and post‐1997. We find that the mean volatility, as well as its standard deviation, was lowest during 1992–1997. Our findings provide statistical evidence consistent with popular beliefs that market volatility changes over time.

We investigate the order of integration of aggregate wage, price and productivity measures for the USA. Our investigation differs from previous studies as we employ recently developed tests that allow, under the alternative hypothesis, for structural change between periods in which the data are integrated of order zero, I(0), and integrated of order one, I(1). The tests reveal that some of the time series examined are neither exclusively I(0) or I(1) and that in fact breaks in the order of integration have occurred, suggesting the need for caution when undertaking Granger‐causality tests involving these variables.

AbstractThis study investigates the relative strength in mutual fund performance by employing three different empirical methods to analyze the profitability of twenty trading strategies, based on varying evaluation horizons and investment periods. Specifically, we test for positive persistence in fund performance by focusing on the optimal weighting of past performance information. Counter to an earlier study on relative strength of fund performance, this study's results do not support the decay of performance persistence after one year. Rather, we find persistent abnormal fund returns over a one to three year investment period based on a three to four year evaluation horizon. In addition, results show that relative strength in fund performance is directly related to persistence in superior performing funds rather than a function of persistence in inferior performing funds.

AbstractSimilar to previous studies, we investigate the relation between past and future fund performance. However, we deviate from previous studies by investigating the relation between persistent fund performance and four systematic factors: size, goal, load, and management fee. Results indicate no consistent relation between fund size and persistent fund performance. The existence of a sales charge does not affect persistent fund performance. The goal of a fund does affect persistent fund performance, with high‐risk maximum capital gain funds' demonstrating a strong positive persistence in abnormal returns. In addition, funds with low management fees demonstrate significantly positive persistent fund performance, while funds with high management fees demonstrate significantly negative persistent fund performance. Further research into the relation between persistent fund performance and maximum capital gain funds indicates persistent fund performance in both inferior‐ and superior‐performing funds. However, persistence in funds with low management fees occurs only in funds with superior past performance.

AbstractThis paper re‐examines the evidence rejecting the expectations theory of the term structure. Weekly, monthly, and quarterly data on three‐ and six‐month interest rates are employed for five subperiods—1910–1914, 1919–1933, 1934–1959, 1959–1978, and 1979–1989. Econometric techniques are used to correct standard errors for overlapping data and for heteroscedasticity. Findings indicate that the weekly and monthly data are consistent with a weak form of the expectations hypothesis in which the yield curve has substantial predictive power for short rates for each subperiod except 1934–1959 and 1979–1989. Results for the period before the founding of the Federal Reserve indicate that a strong version of the expectations hypothesis cannot be rejected in which the joint hypothesis of rational expectations and expectations theory is hypothesized. The use of cointegration tests and an error‐correction model framework to determine whether short and long rates have a common stochastic trend indicates that long and short rates are cointegrated.

We investigate dividend yield predictability for stock returns and dividend growth for eight countries over the period 1973–2010. We employ panel methods and report evidence of such predictive power over the full sample. An examination by decade reveals that the predictive ability for stock returns and dividend growth varies with time. Indeed, the strength of this predictability switches between returns and dividend growth. In the 1970s only returns were predicted, while in the 1980s only dividend growth was predicted. In the 1990s and 2000s, both variables were predicted, although the coefficient magnitude and strength of the statistical relationship changes.

AbstractThe Tax Act of 1986 changed the tax treatment of tax‐exempt municipal bonds for banks. Since banks were the dominant participant in the municipal bond market until 1986, some believe that this resulted in a breakdown of the long‐run equilibrium relationship between municipal and US Treasury securities of equal maturity. We present evidence that there was a significant structural break in the relationship between municipal and Treasury bonds around the time of the Tax Act. This break is characterized by both a shift in the mean and a flattening of the slope parameter that links the two interest rates in a long‐run equilibrium relationship.