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On some fiscal effects on mortgage debt growth in the EU
This paper analyses some fiscal aspects of mortgage debt in the EU. It first describes the main fiscal instruments that governments use to affect mortgage-financed home-ownership. In the empirical part, real mortgage debt growth is analysed for 15 EU countries using pooled regressions. Fiscal effects are included via after-tax interest rates. Other factors shown to be relevant for mortgage debt growth are house prices, financial deregulation, and stock markets while the effects of household income and inflation are less evident. Finally, the role of structural fiscal measures in reducing housing market volatility is highlighted.
BASE
Short- and long-run tax elasticities: the case of the Netherlands
In: Working paper series 763
The structural budget deficit estimates for the Netherlands, 1960-1987
In: Groningen theses in economics, management & organization
Drivers of European public debt management
This study analyses the choice of government debt managers in the euro area between issuing short-term or long-term debt over the period 1992-2017. Debt managers increased short-term debt issuance in response to higher interest rate spreads and to rising government debt, notably in vulnerable, high-debt countries. Thus, lower longterm rates as a result of ECB's Quantitative Easing (QE) triggered debt managers to focus debt issuance on the long-term end. Moreover, the usual increase in debt maturity when debt rises ceases to operate when QE is active, possibly because markets perceived it as a backstop to the government bond market. However, limited QE experience calls for caution in interpreting the results.
BASE
What drives spreads in the euro area government bond market?
In: Economic policy, Band 24, Heft 58, S. 191-240
ISSN: 1468-0327
Have Euro Area Government Bond Risk Premia Converged To Their Common State?
We derive a model in which a standard international capital asset pricing (ICAPM) model is nested within an ICAPM model with market imperfections. In the latter model an idiosyncratic stochastic factor affects the return of risky assets (over a risk-free rate) on top of the systematic component that is common to all countries (and that is interacted with a timevarying idiosyncratic "beta"). We introduce asymptotic convergence from the full ICAPM model with imperfections to the standard model by multiplying the idiosyncratic factor by convergence operators. The model is then estimated using the weekly 10 year government bond spreads of Belgium, France, Italy, and the Netherlands versus Germany over the period 1991-2006. We find that the idiosyncratic components have converged towards zero for all countries after the introduction of the euro implying that the efficiency of the euro area government bond markets under consideration has increased. Full convergence has not yet occurred however.
BASE
Market discipline, financial integration and fiscal rules: what drives spreads in the euro area government bond market?
This paper studies the determinants of interest rate spreads of euro area 10 year government bonds against the benchmark, the German bund, after the introduction of the euro. In particular, it pays attention to the question whether market discipline is advanced or obstructed by financial integration and by fiscal rules like the Stability and Growth Pact. We first argue that financial integration – by improving market efficiency – is instrumental for markets to exert their disciplinary role. Next, we discuss the relationships between market discipline and fiscal rules, arguing that these in principle may reinforce each other. Finally, we provide strong empirical evidence that spreads depend on the ratings of the underlying bond and to a large extent are driven by the level of short-term interest rates.
BASE
What determines fiscal balances? An empirical investigation in determinants of changes in OECD budget balances
Fiscal balances have deteriorated quickly in recent years, bringing back to the foreground the question what factors help explain such sharp changes. This paper takes a broad perspective at the issue regarding countries included, the range of explanatory variables tried, and the time-span. The empirical analysis shows that changes in budget balances are affected by debt growth, macroeconomic developments and political factors. In particular, we find that the run-up to EMU induced additional consolidation in Europe and that budget balances deteriorate markedly in election years. Asset prices also may affect budgets, but the impact remains limited in normal times.
BASE
Government debt management in the euro area - recent theoretical developments and changes in practices
This paper reviews recent developments in the management of government debt in the euro area, covering both theoretical and practical aspects. It focuses on key aspects of debt management; the objectives of debt management, its organisation, the maturity of debt, inflation-indexation, currency-denomination, the ownership of debt, and debt issuing and trading practices. Main adjustments include an increase in autonomy of debt management agencies, and a convergence in debt maturities and in debt issuing strategies. Issuance of inflation-indexed bonds and the use of interest rate swaps have increased strongly. While the share of government debt denominated in non-domestic currencies is falling, foreign ownership of euro area government debt is increasing markedly. The observed changes in recent years in part reflect the introduction of the euro and the related integration of European capital markets.
BASE
Debt Management: A Survey of Theoretical Developments and Innovations in European Practices
In: Public Debt Conference, p. 671, 2004
SSRN
Government debt management in the Euro area: recent theoretical developments and changes in practices
In: Occasional paper series 25