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AbstractIntroductionHIV planning requires granular estimates for the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV), antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage and unmet need, and new HIV infections by district, or equivalent subnational administrative level. We developed a Bayesian small‐area estimation model, called Naomi, to estimate these quantities stratified by subnational administrative units, sex, and five‐year age groups.MethodsSmall‐area regressions for HIV prevalence, ART coverage and HIV incidence were jointly calibrated using subnational household survey data on all three indicators, routine antenatal service delivery data on HIV prevalence and ART coverage among pregnant women, and service delivery data on the number of PLHIV receiving ART. Incidence was modelled by district‐level HIV prevalence and ART coverage. Model outputs of counts and rates for each indicator were aggregated to multiple geographic and demographic stratifications of interest. The model was estimated in an empirical Bayes framework, furnishing probabilistic uncertainty ranges for all output indicators. Example results were presented using data from Malawi during 2016–2018.ResultsAdult HIV prevalence in September 2018 ranged from 3.2% to 17.1% across Malawi's districts and was higher in southern districts and in metropolitan areas. ART coverage was more homogenous, ranging from 75% to 82%. The largest number of PLHIV was among ages 35 to 39 for both women and men, while the most untreated PLHIV were among ages 25 to 29 for women and 30 to 34 for men. Relative uncertainty was larger for the untreated PLHIV than the number on ART or total PLHIV. Among clients receiving ART at facilities in Lilongwe city, an estimated 71% (95% CI, 61% to 79%) resided in Lilongwe city, 20% (14% to 27%) in Lilongwe district outside the metropolis, and 9% (6% to 12%) in neighbouring Dowa district. Thirty‐eight percent (26% to 50%) of Lilongwe rural residents and 39% (27% to 50%) of Dowa residents received treatment at facilities in Lilongwe city.ConclusionsThe Naomi model synthesizes multiple subnational data sources to furnish estimates of key indicators for HIV programme planning, resource allocation, and target setting. Further model development to meet evolving HIV policy priorities and programme need should be accompanied by continued strengthening and understanding of routine health system data.

[Background]: The gut microbiome and iron status are known to play a role in the pathophysiology of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), although their complex interaction remains unclear. ; [Results]: Here, we applied an integrative systems medicine approach (faecal metagenomics, plasma and urine metabolomics, hepatic transcriptomics) in 2 well-characterised human cohorts of subjects with obesity (discovery n = 49 and validation n = 628) and an independent cohort formed by both individuals with and without obesity (n = 130), combined with in vitro and animal models. Serum ferritin levels, as a markers of liver iron stores, were positively associated with liver fat accumulation in parallel with lower gut microbial gene richness, composition and functionality. Specifically, ferritin had strong negative associations with the Pasteurellaceae, Leuconostocaceae and Micrococcaea families. It also had consistent negative associations with several Veillonella, Bifidobacterium and Lactobacillus species, but positive associations with Bacteroides and Prevotella spp. Notably, the ferritin-associated bacterial families had a strong correlation with iron-related liver genes. In addition, several bacterial functions related to iron metabolism (transport, chelation, heme and siderophore biosynthesis) and NAFLD (fatty acid and glutathione biosynthesis) were also associated with the host serum ferritin levels. This iron-related microbiome signature was linked to a transcriptomic and metabolomic signature associated to the degree of liver fat accumulation through hepatic glucose metabolism. In particular, we found a consistent association among serum ferritin, Pasteurellaceae and Micrococcacea families, bacterial functions involved in histidine transport, the host circulating histidine levels and the liver expression of GYS2 and SEC24B. Serum ferritin was also related to bacterial glycine transporters, the host glycine serum levels and the liver expression of glycine transporters. The transcriptomic findings were replicated in human primary hepatocytes, where iron supplementation also led to triglycerides accumulation and induced the expression of lipid and iron metabolism genes in synergy with palmitic acid. We further explored the direct impact of the microbiome on iron metabolism and liver fact accumulation through transplantation of faecal microbiota into recipient's mice. In line with the results in humans, transplantation from 'high ferritin donors' resulted in alterations in several genes related to iron metabolism and fatty acid accumulation in recipient's mice. ; [Conclusions]: Altogether, a significant interplay among the gut microbiome, iron status and liver fat accumulation is revealed, with potential significance for target therapies. ; This work was supported by EU-FP7 FLORINASH (Health-F2-2009-241913) to R.B., M.F., J.M.F.R., E.H. and J.K.N. Infrastructure support was provided by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Imperial Biomedical Research Centre (BRC). L.H. was in receipt of an MRC Intermediate Research Fellowship in Data Science (grant number MR/L01632X/1, UK Med-Bio). This work was also partly supported by funding to M.-E.D. (EU METACARDIS under agreement HEALTH-F4-2012-305312, Neuron II under agreement 291840 and the MRC MR/M501797/1) and by grants from the French National Research Agency (ANR-10-LABX-46 [European Genomics Institute for Diabetes]), from the National Center for Precision Diabetic Medicine – PreciDIAB, which is jointly supported by the French National Agency for Research (ANR-18-IBHU-0001), by the European Union (FEDER), by the Hauts-de-France Regional Council (Agreement 20001891/NP0025517) and by the European Metropolis of Lille (MEL, Agreement 2019_ESR_11) and by Isite ULNE (R-002-20-TALENT-DUMAS), also jointly funded by ANR (ANR-16-IDEX-0004-ULNE) the Hauts-de-France Regional Council (Agreement 20002045) and by the European Metropolis of Lille (MEL). J.M.-P. is funded by the Miguel Servet Program from the Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII CP18/00009), co-funded by the European Social Fund 'Investing in your future'. María Arnoriaga Rodríguez is funded by a predoctoral Río Hortega contract (CM19/00190, co-funded by European Social Fund 'Investing in your future') from the Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Spain. This work was supported by grants to AM from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (PID2019-105969GB-I00) and Generalitat Valenciana (project Prometeo/2018/133). ; Peer reviewed