The Swedish Parliamentary Election of September 1994
In: Scandinavian political studies: SPS ; a journal, Band 18, Heft 4, S. 285
ISSN: 0080-6757
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In: Scandinavian political studies: SPS ; a journal, Band 18, Heft 4, S. 285
ISSN: 0080-6757
In: Scandinavian political studies: SPS ; a journal, Band 15, Heft 2, S. 135
ISSN: 0080-6757
In: Scandinavian political studies: SPS ; a journal, Band 12, Heft 2, S. 77
ISSN: 0080-6757
In: European journal of political research: official journal of the European Consortium for Political Research, Band 19, Heft 4, S. 413-424
ISSN: 0304-4130
The floating vote & the floating voter at three critical junctures in modern Swedish political history are examined using S. R. Thomsen's method of ecological inference (Danish Elections 1920-1979: A Logit Approach to Ecological Analysis and Inference, Aarhus: Politica, 1987). Ecological estimates drawn from Thomsen's approach support the notion that the Swedish elections of 1928, 1948, & 1968 were mobilizing elections, enticing significant numbers of new voters to the polls & generating considerable mobility between parties. The three elections could also be considered realigning, given their potential to establish a new status quo. It is suggested that right-wing parties were on the offensive in 1928 & 1948, while the Social Democrats held the initiative in 1968. However, because the new coalitions reflected instability, the floating voters were responsible for the difference between defeat & victory, particularly voters with a nonvoting history. It is argued that Thomsen's method for ecological inference is more effective than alternative regression methods. 8 Tables, 1 Figure, 14 References. S. Millett
In: European journal of political research: official journal of the European Consortium for Political Research, Band 19, Heft 4, S. 441-477
ISSN: 0304-4130
The logit method for ecological inference (Thomsen, S. R., Danish Elections 1920-1979: A Logit Approach to Ecological Analysis and Inference, Aarhus: Politica, 1987) is assessed, testing the validity of ecological estimates of voter mobility between parties during 3 Danish, 5 Swedish, & 3 Finnish election periods. For both the Danish & Swedish elections, although the ecological estimates produced by the simple logit method are close to survey results, the latter are probably more valid; eg, the similarity between ecological estimates & adjusted survey results for Denmark is less than the similarity between two adjusted surveys. However, deviations between ecological estimates & survey results for each country demonstrate a stable pattern that can be interpreted within the framework of general logit theory, even though the ecological estimates by the simple model probably are not as valid. It is suggested that a more general logit method tailored to the conditions of each country can yield more valid ecological estimates. 13 Tables, 1 Figure, 25 References. S. Millett