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We use recently developed cointegration tests that determine the regime shift endogenously to test for bilateral real interest rate convergence (real interest rate parity) in the G7 against the USA in the 1974–95 period. In contrast with previous studies that employed classical regression analysis and standard cointegration tests, our innovative approach provides strong evidence in favour of bilateral real interest rate convergence between the USA and several countries in our sample, in particular for short‐term real interest rates. Our results highlight the fact that for a number of countries in our sample (Canada and the UK) monetary policy can act as a stabilization policy tool through its effect on domestic long‐term real interest rates, while for others (France and Germany) long‐term real interest rate changes are influenced by the US monetary policy stance.

We use cointegration tests that determine endogenously the regime shift to test for bilateral short‐term and long‐term real interest rate convergence in the European Monetary System in the 1979–1993 period. The results of these tests provide strong evidence in favour of bilateral real interest rate convergence between Germany and several countries in our sample, particularly for long‐term real interest rates. This result carries the important policy implication that in several European countries monetary policy has lost some of its effectiveness as a stabilisation policy tool.

In this paper, we empirically assess the Taylor principle in the long run with a small‐scale, trivariate structural vector autoregression. Using U.S. data spanning the period from 1959Q1 to 2010Q2 and different measures of inflation and the output gap, we find that the Taylor principle is supported in the long run for the post‐1979 era, but the principle is unlikely to hold in the long run for the pre‐1979 era. (JEL E52, E58)

AbstractWe quantify the magnitude of market segmentation in US consumer market and explore the underlying factors behind this segmentation, using a quarterly panel of retail prices for 45 products in 48 US cities from 1985 to 2009. The extent of market segmentation is estimated using city‐pair price differences within the framework of both linear autoregressive (AR) and nonlinear threshold autoregressive (TAR) models. We find that the magnitude of market segmentation varies from one product to another, but even more across city pairs in each product. Contrary to a widespread perception, market segmentation within the US is not necessarily larger for non‐tradable services compared to tradable goods. We identify potential drivers of market segmentation by relating the cross‐city and cross‐product variations of market segmentation to location‐specific and product‐specific characteristics—distance, relative city sizes, differences in wage and rent, type of product and proximity to marketplace. Distance, which captures more than transport costs, turns out to be the most salient factor even after controlling for a range of other potential factors. The effect of distance, however, varies substantially across products, with perishable products and locally produced products showing larger distance effect on market segmentation. We find that the magnitude of market segmentation has been somewhat stable during the sample period, but intercity price differences have become more sensitive to distance over time in many products under study.

AbstractWe study the possible asymmetric effect of monetary policy on house prices under different credit regimes. We first derive the implications of a theoretical model in which agents may be collateral‐constrained. We then empirically examine the implications of the model using the threshold vector autoregression model. Two different measures reflecting the tightness of the credit market are computed to serve as the threshold variable. We find that house prices react to a monetary shock initially more strongly but the effect is less persistent in a credit boom regime than in a normal credit regime. This result is consistent with the findings of our theoretical model.

The purpose of this paper is to apply a symmetric band threshold autoregressive model to investigate the non‐linear adjustment of the real pound–dollar rate over a period from 1885 to 2003. After controlling for the Harrod–Balassa–Samuelson effects, we find evidence to support a non‐linear mean reversion of the real pound–dollar rate. Moreover, the estimated half‐life is about two years with large shocks. We therefore provide a solution to the purchasing power parity puzzle.